Russia is advancing but signaling it might talk.
Along the border where ambition met attrition, Ukraine is now ordering families from their homes as the Kursk incursion — once conceived as a lever to shift the war's balance — contracts toward its likely end. Russia has reclaimed roughly seventy percent of the territory Ukraine seized last August, and the soldiers who remain must navigate dozens of kilometers of hostile ground simply to withdraw. Into this shrinking military space, diplomatic language has begun to flow: Putin speaks of ceasefire principles while preserving every condition that might delay one, and Washington moves quietly through Moscow's corridors with proposals that already contemplate Ukraine's territorial losses. The war has not paused — it has merely added a second stage, where the fighting and the bargaining now proceed in uneasy parallel.
- Eight villages in Ukraine's Sumy region are under mandatory evacuation orders as Russian shelling intensifies and the Kursk front collapses inward.
- Ukrainian soldiers trapped inside Russia must traverse dozens of kilometers on foot, evading patrols, to reach safety — a retreat that was never part of the plan.
- The incursion that once held 1,300 square kilometers now clings to fewer than 200, and the bargaining chip Ukraine hoped to carry into negotiations is nearly spent.
- Putin offered qualified support for a ceasefire in principle, but wrapped the gesture in conditions designed to keep Russia's negotiating position intact.
- Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is in Moscow for what the White House calls serious talks, with territorial concessions and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant already on the table.
- The G7 is visibly fracturing over how to respond, even as Britain moves independently to expand defense lending capacity to £10 billion and commits to raising military spending to 2.5% of GDP.
Ukraine's foothold in Russia's Kursk region is collapsing. On Thursday, the military ordered mandatory evacuation of eight villages along the Sumy border, acknowledging what the numbers already confirm: the operation meant to shift the war's momentum has become a desperate holding action. Russian shelling has made the settlements indefensible, and soldiers still inside Russian territory must walk for dozens of kilometers through hostile ground simply to withdraw.
When Ukraine crossed into Kursk last August, the logic was sound on paper — seize territory, force Russia to redeploy, and carry a bargaining chip into eventual negotiations. For a brief window, it worked. Ukrainian forces held as much as 1,300 square kilometers. That window has closed. Russia has now reclaimed roughly 70% of what Ukraine gained, leaving Ukrainian forces with under 200 square kilometers — smaller than a large city.
Yet as the ground situation deteriorates, diplomatic signals are moving in a different direction. Standing beside Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin, Putin said Russia agrees with proposals to cease hostilities and that "the idea itself is correct" — then immediately attached conditions requiring clarification on details and resolution of what he calls the conflict's root causes. The statement was designed to signal openness to Washington without committing to anything concrete.
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is in Moscow for what the president described as serious talks. Trump acknowledged his administration is already discussing which territory Ukraine would retain or surrender in any settlement, and the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant — Europe's largest, currently under Russian control — has entered those conversations.
The broader alliance is showing strain. Canada, holding the G7's rotating presidency, called for unity against Russian aggression even as Trump's conciliatory posture toward Moscow creates visible fractures among wealthy democracies. Britain is moving in its own direction, expanding defense lending capacity by £2 billion to a total of £10 billion, weeks after pledging to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
What is emerging is a portrait of simultaneous military contraction and diplomatic uncertainty — Ukraine evacuating civilians from ground it cannot hold, Russia advancing while speaking of peace, and Washington quietly sketching the outlines of a settlement that may already account for losses Ukraine has not yet formally conceded.
Ukraine's foothold in Russia's Kursk region is collapsing. On Thursday, the Ukrainian military ordered the mandatory evacuation of eight villages along the border with Kursk, acknowledging what the numbers already made clear: the operation that was supposed to shift the war's momentum has instead become a desperate holding action. The Sumy region's military administration cited "the exacerbation of the operational situation" and relentless Russian shelling as the reason families had to leave their homes.
When Ukraine crossed into Kursk last August, the strategy was elegant in theory. The incursion would force Russia to redirect forces away from the main battlefields inside Ukraine, and the captured territory would serve as a bargaining chip—something Ukraine could trade back for the roughly 20% of its own land that Russia occupies. For a moment, it worked. Ukrainian forces seized as much as 1,300 square kilometers. But that moment has passed. According to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, Russia has now retaken about 70% of what Ukraine gained. Ukrainian forces now control less than 200 square kilometers—an area smaller than a large city. The retreat has become so difficult that soldiers trying to escape back into Ukraine must walk for dozens of kilometers while avoiding Russian patrols.
As the military situation deteriorates on the ground, diplomatic signals are moving in a different direction. Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia supports the idea of a ceasefire, at least in principle. Standing beside Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, Putin told reporters at the Kremlin that "we agree with the proposals to cease hostilities" and that "the idea itself is correct." But the qualifications came quickly. Russia, he said, needed clarifications on crucial details and wanted any agreement to address what he considers the root causes of the conflict. The statement was calibrated to signal openness to Washington without actually committing to anything concrete.
Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is in Moscow conducting what Trump described as "serious talks" with Russian officials about the ceasefire proposal that the United States and Ukraine have already agreed to. Trump said the coming days would reveal whether Russia is genuinely interested in ending the fighting. He also disclosed that his administration has been discussing which territory Ukraine would retain or lose in any settlement, and the future of a major power plant—almost certainly the Zaporizhzhia nuclear station, Europe's largest, which Russia currently controls.
Meanwhile, the wealthier democracies are fracturing over how to respond. Canada, holding the rotating presidency of the G7, called on the group to stand united against Russian aggression as Trump's conciliatory approach toward Moscow creates visible splits among the wealthy nations. Britain, for its part, is moving in the opposite direction: the government announced it would increase lending capacity for countries buying British defense equipment by £2 billion, bringing the total to £10 billion. The move comes weeks after Britain pledged to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, citing global instability and the war in Ukraine as justification.
The picture emerging is one of military stalemate and diplomatic uncertainty. Ukraine is losing ground it cannot afford to lose, evacuating civilians from villages that have become indefensible. Russia is advancing but signaling it might talk. The United States is exploring a settlement while discussing the terms of Ukraine's territorial losses. And the alliance that has sustained Ukrainian resistance is showing signs of strain.
Notable Quotes
We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities. The idea itself is correct, and we certainly support it.— Vladimir Putin, Russian president
Now we're going to see whether or not Russia is there, and if they're not, it'll be a very disappointing moment for the world.— Donald Trump, US president
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Ukraine launch the Kursk operation in the first place if it was going to end like this?
It made sense at the time. They were being ground down on their own territory, losing ground steadily. The idea was to seize the initiative, force Russia to react, and create leverage for negotiations. For a few weeks it worked—they held over a thousand square kilometers. But Russia adapted, brought in reinforcements, and now Ukraine is fighting to hold onto scraps.
And the people being evacuated now—how much warning did they have?
The order came Thursday. We don't know exactly how much time residents had to pack and leave, but the military administration said the situation had "exacerbated." That's the language you use when things are moving fast and you're out of time.
Putin says he supports a ceasefire. Should anyone believe him?
He's being careful. He said he supports the idea but needs clarifications and wants the agreement to address what he calls the root causes. That's diplomatic language for: we're not actually agreeing to anything yet. He's signaling to Trump that Russia is willing to talk, which keeps the door open without constraining his options.
What does Trump actually want from this?
That's less clear. He's discussing which territory Ukraine keeps or loses, which suggests he's thinking about a settlement that involves Ukraine ceding land. He's also focused on the nuclear power plant. Whether he's trying to broker a genuine peace or just trying to claim a win is hard to say.
And the G7—why is it splitting?
Because Trump is approaching this differently than the other Western leaders. Canada and Britain are signaling they want to keep supporting Ukraine militarily, but Trump seems more interested in a deal. When the most powerful country in the alliance shifts direction, the others have to decide whether to follow or resist.