There are no oligarchs in Russia. How can you reconcile oligarchy with dictatorship?
On the 1,496th day of a war that has reshaped the architecture of European security, Ukraine's president offered a conditional restraint — a willingness to ease strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia would stop dismantling Ukraine's own. The gesture, shaped by quiet Western pressure and rising global oil prices, arrives not as peace but as a negotiation over the terms of destruction. Beneath the diplomacy, the bombs continued to fall on homes and children, and the question of whether economic pressure on Moscow's war machine can ever be made to bite remained stubbornly open.
- Western allies, led by the United States, have privately urged Kyiv to pull back from striking Russian oil infrastructure as surging global energy prices create pressure far beyond the battlefield.
- Zelenskyy has responded not with refusal but with a mirror: he will scale back if Russia stops targeting Ukraine's power grid — a reciprocal logic that reveals how thoroughly energy has become a weapon of war.
- A new ten-year defense pact with Bulgaria locks in joint drone and weapons production, signaling that Ukraine is building for a long war even as it gestures toward restraint.
- Russian strikes on Monday killed two people and wounded more than twenty, including a six-year-old child in Sumy — the grinding civilian toll that continues regardless of diplomatic overtures.
- Sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft face a fourth deadline extension and contested effectiveness, while exiled oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky warns the West has fundamentally misread how power and wealth operate inside Putin's Russia.
President Zelenskyy acknowledged on Monday that Western allies have quietly urged Ukraine to reduce its long-range strikes on Russian oil and energy facilities, citing the global energy crisis driving oil prices higher. Speaking to journalists, he said he would be willing to scale back such operations — but only if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine's own power grid and energy systems. A Reuters source indicated the pressure had originated from American officials in routine diplomatic exchanges, with suggestions it may have first come from Moscow. Zelenskyy also signaled openness to an Easter ceasefire, a rhetorical gesture of flexibility even as the war's fundamental dynamics remain unchanged. He had just returned from the Middle East, where he secured energy assistance commitments including a year-long diesel delivery agreement.
On the military side, Zelenskyy announced a ten-year defense accord with Bulgaria covering joint production of drones and weapons systems on both nations' soil. Bulgaria's interim prime minister traveled to Kyiv to sign the agreement, calling it a genuine commitment to Euro-Atlantic security rather than a ceremonial act. The partnership carries particular weight: Bulgaria's Soviet-era weapons factories produce ammunition to the same standards Ukraine's military still uses, and the decade-long framework institutionalizes an arms flow that has already been substantial while positioning Ukraine to keep pace with rapidly evolving drone warfare.
The human cost continued its familiar accumulation. Russian strikes on central and northern Ukraine killed at least two people and wounded more than twenty. In Poltava, drone debris struck a residential high-rise. Near Nikopol, drone and artillery fire killed one and wounded others. In Sumy, two glide-bomb strikes injured thirteen people, among them a six-year-old child, and damaged fifteen homes.
Economically, the US extended for a fourth time the deadline for companies to bid on Lukoil's foreign assets — valued at roughly $22 billion — now pushing the window to May 1st. Interest has come from Carlyle, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and others. But exiled Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky argued that sanctions targeting oligarchs have failed to weaken Putin and were pursued largely for domestic political optics in the West. His sharpest point cut to the core: in a dictatorship, wealth without weapons is not power — it is vulnerability. 'There are no oligarchs in Russia,' he said.
On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that some of Ukraine's Western allies have quietly suggested Kyiv dial back its long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and energy facilities. Speaking to journalists via WhatsApp, he framed the overture as a response to the global energy crisis that has sent oil prices climbing. The Ukrainian leader said he would be willing to scale back such operations if Russia reciprocated by halting its own relentless attacks on Ukraine's power grid and energy systems—a condition that underscores how central energy warfare has become to the conflict now in its 1,496th day.
According to a Reuters source with knowledge of the matter, American officials had delivered these signals to their Ukrainian counterparts during routine diplomatic conversations. The initial pressure, the source suggested, appeared to have originated from Moscow itself, though neither the US State Department nor the Russian embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for clarification. Zelenskyy also indicated openness to an Easter ceasefire, a gesture that signals at least rhetorical flexibility on timing, even as the fundamental military situation remains unresolved. The Ukrainian president had just returned from a four-day visit to the Middle East, where he secured commitments from regional partners to supply energy assistance to Ukraine, including a year-long diesel delivery agreement whose specifics he did not disclose.
On the military front, Zelenskyy announced a significant new partnership: a ten-year defense accord with Bulgaria covering joint production of drones and other weapons systems on both countries' territories. Bulgaria's interim prime minister, Andrey Gyurov, who traveled to Kyiv to sign the agreement, called it the culmination of extensive preparation and described it as more than ceremonial—a genuine commitment to Euro-Atlantic security. The timing matters. Bulgaria, now part of NATO and the European Union, carries historical weight as a former Soviet-bloc nation whose weapons factories once produced ammunition to Soviet specifications, the same standards Ukraine's military still relies on. Sofia has already shipped substantial quantities of arms to Kyiv; this decade-long framework institutionalizes that flow and, crucially, allows Ukraine to keep pace with the rapid evolution of drone technology, which has become central to how this war is actually fought.
The human toll continued unabated. Russian attacks on central and northern Ukraine on Monday killed at least two people and wounded more than twenty others. Near Poltava in central Ukraine, drone debris from a strike killed one person, injured three, and damaged a high-rise residential building, according to regional governor Vitaliy Diakivnych. In the adjacent Dnipropetrovsk region near Nikopol, another person was killed and two injured in drone and artillery strikes; twelve more were wounded across the broader region. In Sumy, near the Russian border, two glide-bomb strikes injured thirteen people, including a six-year-old child, and damaged fifteen homes. The pattern is familiar by now: strikes on civilian infrastructure, civilian casualties, the grinding accumulation of loss.
Meanwhile, the economic pressure on Russia's war machine continued to tighten, though with complications. The US extended a negotiation deadline for the fourth time, pushing to May 1st the window for companies to bid on Lukoil's foreign assets—valued at roughly $22 billion—after Washington sanctioned the company in October 2025. Lukoil is Russia's second-largest oil producer; Rosneft, the largest, was also sanctioned. The goal was to starve Moscow of revenue needed to sustain the war. Interest in acquiring Lukoil's holdings has come from the American private equity firm Carlyle, oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron, Abu Dhabi's International Holding Company, and Austrian investor Bernd Bergmair, whose portfolio includes ownership stakes in adult entertainment ventures.
Yet the effectiveness of such measures remains contested. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian billionaire and longtime Putin critic, argued that sanctions targeting oligarchs and specific economic sectors have failed to meaningfully weaken Putin's position. Western policymakers, he suggested, pursued such measures largely to satisfy domestic political audiences, but enforcement proved unrealistic in practice. More fundamentally, Khodorkovsky challenged the underlying Western assumption that wealthy Russian businessmen could be leveraged to pressure Putin into ending the war. The relationship between money and power in Russia, he argued, is not what Western observers imagine. "There are no oligarchs in Russia," he said bluntly. In a dictatorship, wealth without weapons is merely prey.
Citações Notáveis
Recently, following such a severe global energy crisis, we have indeed received signals from some of our partners asking about how to reduce our responses in the oil sector and the energy sector of the Russian Federation.— President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
This is not a mere formality, but a joint commitment to our Euro-Atlantic security.— Bulgaria's interim prime minister Andrey Gyurov, on the defense agreement
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why would Ukraine agree to scale back energy strikes now, when they've been so effective at disrupting Russian operations?
Because the global energy crisis is real, and it's affecting Ukraine's allies too. When oil prices spike, it ripples through every Western economy. The pressure isn't just diplomatic—it's economic.
But doesn't this reward Russia for attacking Ukrainian power plants?
That's exactly Zelenskyy's condition. He's saying yes, but only if Russia stops first. It's a mirror-image proposal—mutual restraint. Whether Russia would actually agree is another question entirely.
The Bulgaria deal seems like a separate track. Why announce it now?
It's a hedge. While discussing possible restraint with the West, Zelenskyy is locking in long-term military production with a NATO ally. It signals that Ukraine isn't weakening its defenses, just potentially adjusting tactics.
What about Khodorkovsky's claim that sanctions don't work?
He's saying the West is chasing a fantasy—that oligarchs have leverage over Putin. But in a dictatorship, money is only power if the dictator allows it. The sanctions may still hurt Russia's economy, just not in the way Western policymakers hoped.
So the energy strikes—are they actually ending?
Not yet. Zelenskyy said he's open to it. But "open to" and "will do" are different things. Everything depends on whether Russia reciprocates, and there's no sign they will.