The country was as polarized on the anniversary as during the campaign
Five years after Britain's most consequential democratic rupture, the nation finds itself where it began — not in geography, but in spirit. A new poll marks the anniversary not with resolution but with reflection: the country remains almost perfectly split, its citizens largely unmoved by the years of negotiation, consequence, and change that followed their vote. What the referendum revealed about Britain's internal divisions, it seems, it did not heal.
- A Savanta ComRes poll of over 2,000 adults finds the UK locked in near-identical division to June 2016, with a hypothetical re-run producing a razor-thin 51-49 result — only in the opposite direction.
- Beneath the headline numbers lies a striking stubbornness: only 6-7% of voters on either side have crossed the divide, meaning five years of lived consequence have shifted almost no one.
- Public verdict on Brexit itself is fractured — roughly a third call it a success, a third a failure, and a majority believe it has made Britain more divided rather than more united.
- When the question shifts from 'Remain vs Leave' to 'Rejoin vs Stay Out,' the majority flips again — suggesting the framing of the choice matters as much as the choice itself.
- For any future rejoin movement, the strategic challenge is stark: the most persuadable supporters never voted in 2016, while convincing committed Leavers they were wrong may prove the steeper climb.
Five years after the referendum that reshaped Britain's place in the world, a new poll by Savanta ComRes finds the country in almost exactly the posture it held on the day of the vote. If asked again today, 51% would choose Remain against 49% for Leave — a near-mirror image of the 2016 result, reversed by the narrowest of margins.
What is most striking is not the shift but the stillness beneath it. Only 6% of original Remain voters say they would now choose Leave, and just 7% of Leavers have moved the other way. The overwhelming majority have lived through five years of negotiation and consequence and emerged holding the same conviction they carried in.
Public judgment on Brexit itself remains fractured: 31% call it a success, 34% a failure, and 51% believe it has left Britain more divided than before. Only 13% feel the country has grown more united. When the question is reframed as 'Rejoin versus Stay Out,' the majority flips again to staying out — a reminder that how a choice is posed can be as powerful as the choice itself.
Chris Hopkins of Savanta ComRes noted the paradox plainly: the nation is as polarised on its anniversary as it was during the campaign. For those who dream of Britain returning to the EU, the path is narrow — it runs not through persuading the undecided, but through reaching those who never voted at all, and perhaps through the far harder work of convincing committed Leavers that they were wrong.
Five years after the referendum that sent Britain out of the European Union, the country has not moved. A new poll by Savanta ComRes, conducted in mid-June, found the nation locked in almost the same posture it held on the day of the vote itself—split almost evenly, with no meaningful migration of opinion across the divide.
If voters were asked again today whether to remain in or leave the EU, the result would flip by the narrowest margin. Fifty-one percent would now choose Remain, against forty-nine for Leave. In the actual referendum of June 2016, those numbers ran the other way: 51.9 percent for Leave, 48.1 for Remain. The shift is real but marginal—a swing of less than three percentage points over half a decade.
What strikes harder is the stability underneath. Only six percent of those who voted Remain in 2016 say they would now vote Leave. Seven percent of Leavers have moved the other direction. The vast majority of voters, in other words, have not changed their minds. They have lived through five years of negotiation, implementation, and consequence, and emerged holding the same conviction they held before.
The public's assessment of Brexit itself remains fractured. Thirty-one percent of respondents called it a success. Thirty-four percent judged it a failure. The largest group—fifty-one percent—said the referendum and its aftermath have left Britain more divided than it was before. Only thirteen percent believed the country had grown more united.
The pollsters posed a second question: if the choice were framed not as Leave versus Remain, but as Stay Out versus Rejoin, how would voters respond? The answer inverted. Fifty-one percent would choose to stay out of the EU. The ground had not shifted; only the question had.
Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta ComRes, noted the paradox in his reading of the data. The country was as polarized on the anniversary as it had been during the campaign itself. A hypothetical re-run would be decided on a knife's edge. But he flagged a strategic problem for those who want Britain back in the EU: the people most likely to support rejoin are those who did not vote in 2016. Convincing them to show up would be one challenge. Persuading actual Leave voters that they had made a mistake would be another—and perhaps the harder one.
The poll surveyed 2,191 UK adults aged eighteen and over between June 18 and 20. It captured a nation that had lived through the thing it voted for, and found itself unchanged—still divided, still uncertain, still almost evenly split on whether the choice had been right.
Citações Notáveis
The country is just as divided as it was during the campaign, with a re-run of the referendum on a knife-edge— Chris Hopkins, Savanta ComRes political research director
Those in favour of Remaining or Rejoining would need to convince Leavers they made the wrong decision, rather than relying on non-voters— Chris Hopkins, Savanta ComRes
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Five years is a long time. Why hasn't anyone's mind changed?
Because the vote wasn't really about facts that could be disproven. It was about identity, about what people thought Britain should be. Those convictions don't shift easily.
But people have lived through the actual consequences now. Shouldn't that matter?
It does matter—but not in the way you might expect. People interpret consequences through the lens they already held. A Leave voter sees disruption as a necessary cost of independence. A Remain voter sees the same disruption as proof they were right to warn against it.
The poll shows 51% would now vote Remain if asked again. Doesn't that suggest something has shifted?
It's a shift of three points over five years. That's barely movement. And it depends entirely on how you ask the question. Frame it as "rejoin" instead of "remain" and the numbers flip back to 51% for staying out.
So the country is trapped.
Not trapped exactly. But the referendum didn't settle anything. It just made the division official and permanent. Now people live inside it.
What would it take to actually move people?
According to the researchers, you'd need to convince the people who already voted Leave that they were wrong. You can't win by hoping non-voters show up. You need conversions. And those are rare.