We'll open up the Gulf with or without them
In the long arc of American power and Middle Eastern conflict, a new chapter opened this week as Vice President Vance departed for Islamabad to lead the first direct high-level talks between Washington and Tehran since a ceasefire paused a war that began February 28. President Trump, speaking at Joint Base Andrews with characteristic confidence, declared Iran militarily defeated — a framing meant as much for the negotiating table as for the watching world. At stake are Iran's nuclear ambitions, the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, and the shape of a settlement to a conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives and inflicted the worst disruption to global energy supplies in modern history. Whether this moment becomes a turning point or merely an interlude depends on whether two adversaries can transform a fragile ceasefire into something that endures.
- A war that began with American and Israeli strikes on February 28 has killed thousands and strangled global energy markets in ways officials call historically unprecedented.
- Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has turned one of the world's most critical shipping lanes into a pressure point, rattling markets and supply chains across the globe.
- Trump's declaration that Iran is 'militarily defeated' signals Washington intends to negotiate from dominance, not compromise — a posture that could accelerate or collapse the talks.
- VP Vance is now in Islamabad leading the first direct high-level US-Iran engagement since the ceasefire, tasked with addressing the nuclear program, the blockade, and the terms of a lasting settlement.
- Trump's warning that the Strait will reopen 'with or without' Iranian cooperation puts a clock on diplomacy and raises the specter of unilateral military action if talks stall.
- For world markets and for the families of the thousands killed, the Islamabad negotiations carry the weight of the difference between rebuilding and renewed war.
President Trump was at Joint Base Andrews on Friday, preparing to board Air Force One, when he offered his verdict on the conflict with Iran: the country was militarily defeated. The declaration came as Vice President JD Vance departed for Islamabad to lead the first direct high-level talks between Washington and Tehran since a ceasefire had been announced days earlier. 'I wished him luck. He's got a big thing,' Trump said — offhand in tone, but the moment was anything but.
The war had begun on February 28, when American and Israeli strikes on Iran set off an escalation that killed thousands and produced what officials described as the worst disruption to global energy supplies in modern history. Iran's subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz transformed a regional conflict into a crisis felt in markets and supply chains worldwide.
The Islamabad talks would need to address three interlocking challenges: Iran's nuclear program, the Hormuz blockade, and the broader terms of a durable settlement. Trump's framing of Iran as defeated was clearly designed to project American strength at the table. But he also signaled impatience — stating the Strait would reopen 'with or without' Iranian cooperation, a phrase that left the door open to unilateral action if diplomacy faltered.
The ceasefire announced earlier in the week remained fragile and untested. What Vance was flying to negotiate was whether that pause could become something lasting — or whether the fighting would resume. For markets already shaken by months of disruption, and for the families of those killed, the answer carried consequences that no declaration of victory could fully contain.
President Trump stood at Joint Base Andrews on Friday morning, about to board Air Force One, when he offered a characteristically direct verdict on the state of American conflict with Iran: the country was militarily defeated. The declaration came as Vice President JD Vance prepared to depart for Islamabad to lead the first direct high-level talks between Washington and Tehran since a ceasefire had been announced just days earlier.
Trump's confidence in the moment seemed almost casual. "I wished him luck. He's got a big thing," the President said of Vance before the Vice President's departure. But beneath the offhand tone lay a significant diplomatic moment. The Islamabad negotiations represented the first serious engagement between the two governments since hostilities had begun on February 28, when American and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a cycle of escalation that had since killed thousands and created what officials described as the worst disruption to global energy supplies in modern history.
The core issues driving the talks were substantial and interconnected. Negotiators would need to address Iran's nuclear program—a longstanding point of contention between the nations. They would also confront the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had imposed after the initial strikes and which had become a chokepoint for global commerce. Beyond these specific grievances lay the larger question of how to structure a lasting settlement to a conflict that had already reshaped regional dynamics and sent shockwaves through world markets.
Trump's framing of Iran as militarily defeated appeared designed to signal American strength heading into the talks. He also made clear that patience had limits. When asked about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he stated flatly that it would open soon, "with or without" Iranian cooperation. The phrasing suggested that if diplomacy stalled, the administration was prepared to pursue unilateral action to restore the vital shipping lane.
The timing of the Islamabad talks reflected the fragile state of the broader regional situation. A ceasefire had been announced earlier in the week, but it remained untested and fragile. The negotiations Vance was heading to lead would determine whether that ceasefire could be transformed into something more durable, or whether the conflict would resume. For markets already rattled by months of disruption, the outcome carried enormous weight. For the thousands of families affected by the fighting, it meant the difference between continued violence and the possibility of rebuilding.
Citações Notáveis
They're militarily defeated— President Trump, on Iran's military status
We'll open up the Gulf with or without them— President Trump, on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When Trump says Iran is "militarily defeated," what does he actually mean by that? Are we talking about their ability to strike back, or something broader?
It's a statement designed to set the tone for negotiations—to say the U.S. and Israel achieved their military objectives, so now Iran comes to the table from a position of weakness. But it's also a message to his own audience that he's winning.
And yet they're still blockading the Strait of Hormuz. That doesn't sound like a defeated power.
No, it doesn't. That's why Trump keeps saying he'll open it "with or without" them. He's essentially saying: we can talk, but if you don't cooperate, we'll act unilaterally. It's a pressure tactic.
What happens if Vance gets to Islamabad and Iran refuses to budge on the nuclear program?
Then you're back to the brink. The ceasefire is only days old. It's not stable. If these talks collapse, the fighting resumes, and the global economy gets hit again.
So Vance is walking into a room where both sides are claiming victory but neither can afford to lose?
Exactly. That's the trap. Trump needs a deal to show strength. Iran needs to preserve something of its dignity and security. The Strait of Hormuz is the leverage point—whoever controls the narrative around that controls the negotiation.