No more oil, no more money for Cuba. Zero.
En las semanas que siguieron a la captura de Nicolás Maduro, Cuba comenzó a sentir el peso de una estrategia diseñada no con armas, sino con ausencias: sin petróleo, sin remesas, sin alivio. La administración Trump, fiel a una lógica que ya había ensayado en su primer mandato, apostó por la asfixia económica como palanca de cambio político en La Habana. Lo que está en juego no es solo la supervivencia de un gobierno, sino la de millones de personas atrapadas entre las decisiones de dos capitales que llevan décadas sin escucharse.
- Cuba perdió de golpe 35.000 barriles diarios de petróleo venezolano tras la captura de Maduro, y el vacío se hizo visible en apagones de más de veinte horas y gasolineras cerradas.
- Los precios del combustible en el mercado negro se triplicaron en semanas, convirtiendo un bien básico en un lujo inalcanzable para la mayoría de la población.
- Trump anunció públicamente en Truth Social el cierre total del flujo de petróleo y dinero hacia Cuba, consolidando una estrategia de estrangulamiento financiero en lugar de intervención militar.
- Según The Wall Street Journal, Washington recluta en secreto a funcionarios cubanos dispuestos a negociar un cambio de régimen antes de que termine el año.
- Dentro de la propia administración Trump existe una tensión no resuelta: entre quienes apoyan el cerco económico y quienes advierten que el mayor costo lo pagan los ciudadanos cubanos, no el gobierno.
Donald Trump compareció ante la prensa a finales de enero con una predicción sobre Cuba: el régimen colapsaría pronto, dijo, con la seguridad de quien cree controlar los tiempos. Lo que no explicó con detalle era el mecanismo. Pero la estrategia se estaba dibujando sola en la vida cotidiana de los cubanos.
Durante años, Venezuela había sido el ancla económica de la isla. Unos 35.000 barriles de petróleo al día viajaban desde Caracas hasta La Habana, manteniendo encendidas las luces de un país que ya atravesaba su peor crisis desde la revolución. Cuando Washington orquestó en enero la operación militar que capturó a Nicolás Maduro, ese flujo se cortó. En pocas semanas, los apagones superaron las veinte horas, las gasolineras cerraron y el precio del combustible en el mercado informal se triplicó.
No era una estrategia nueva. En su primer mandato, Trump había desmantelado la apertura diplomática negociada por Obama, restringido los viajes y congelado las remesas que las familias cubanas en el exterior enviaban a sus parientes. Ahora apretaba los mismos tornillos. Marco Rubio, secretario de Estado e hijo de emigrantes cubanos, dejó claro ante el Senado que Cuba ocupaba un lugar especial en el pensamiento de la administración, aunque evitó prometer una intervención directa.
Miguel Díaz-Canel respondió reiterando la disposición de Cuba a negociar desde el respeto mutuo y la igualdad soberana, un lenguaje que no sugería rendición. Trump, por su parte, lanzó una advertencia pública: llegar a un acuerdo antes de que sea demasiado tarde. Según The Wall Street Journal, la administración trabaja en paralelo para reclutar funcionarios cubanos que puedan facilitar un cambio de régimen antes de fin de año.
Pero la estrategia genera fricciones internas. Algunos funcionarios respaldan el cerco; otros advierten que el sufrimiento recae sobre la población civil, no sobre quienes gobiernan. La pregunta que nadie en Washington ha respondido todavía es si el colapso económico producirá un cambio político, o simplemente profundizará la desesperación de quienes ya no tienen adónde ir.
Donald Trump stood before reporters in Washington on a Tuesday in late January and delivered a prediction about Cuba with the certainty of someone who believed he held the levers of power. The island nation would collapse soon, he said. It was already on the edge. What he did not spell out in detail—what no one in his administration had articulated clearly—was how exactly this would happen. But the shape of the strategy was becoming visible in the daily lives of Cubans, who were discovering what it meant to lose a lifeline.
For years, Venezuela had been Cuba's economic anchor. The oil flowed north from Caracas to Havana—roughly 35,000 barrels a day, a steady stream that kept the lights on and the economy functioning, however precariously. That supply had already been fragile. Cuba's government, led by Miguel Díaz-Canel, had been navigating the worst economic crisis since the revolution took power more than six decades ago. But the Venezuelan oil was something. Then, in early January, Washington orchestrated a military operation in Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro. The oil stopped.
Within weeks, the absence became impossible to ignore. Blackouts stretched past twenty hours. Gas stations shuttered their doors. Lines formed at diesel pumps, and prices on the informal market tripled—a liter of fuel now cost around three dollars, double what it had been. The Trump administration's strategy, it became clear, was not a military strike like the one that had targeted Venezuela's Fort Tiuna. It was economic strangulation. Trump himself had announced it bluntly on his Truth Social platform in mid-January: no more oil, no more money for Cuba. Zero.
This was not a new playbook. During his first term, Trump had reversed the diplomatic opening that Barack Obama had negotiated. He had restricted travel to the island and frozen the flow of remittances from Cuban Americans abroad—money that had become essential to families trying to survive. Now he was tightening the same screws, betting that economic pressure would accomplish what military force might not. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself Cuban American, spoke to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about Venezuela but made clear that Cuba occupied a different category in the administration's thinking. The United States would welcome a change in government there, he said, though he stopped short of promising direct intervention.
Díaz-Canel, for his part, showed no sign of capitulating. He reiterated Cuba's willingness to negotiate with Washington on the basis of mutual respect and sovereign equality—language that suggested he was not prepared to bargain away his government's survival. Trump, meanwhile, had issued a warning: reach an agreement before it is too late. Behind the scenes, according to reporting in The Wall Street Journal, the administration was actively recruiting Cuban officials who might be persuaded to broker a deal that would remove the regime before the year ended.
But the strategy was not without internal friction. Some officials within Trump's own administration supported the economic siege. Others worried aloud that squeezing Cuba's economy would only deepen the suffering of ordinary Cubans, who were already enduring a humanitarian crisis. The question hanging over the island was whether economic collapse would force political change, or whether it would simply intensify the desperation of a population with nowhere left to turn. No one in Washington had answered it yet.
Citas Notables
Cuba will fail very soon. Cuba is a nation very close to collapse.— Donald Trump, January 2026
We have always been willing to maintain serious dialogue with different U.S. administrations on the basis of sovereign equality and mutual respect.— Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuban president
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why is Trump so confident Cuba will collapse soon? What's changed?
Venezuela was keeping Cuba alive—literally. Thirty-five thousand barrels of oil a day. Once Maduro fell and that supply cut off, the island lost its shock absorber. The blackouts, the fuel lines, the price spikes—that's all real, all happening now.
But couldn't Cuba have survived without Venezuela before?
It was always fragile. The worst crisis since 1959. Venezuela was the difference between barely functioning and complete breakdown. Now they're in breakdown.
So Trump is just letting the economy collapse on its own?
Not exactly. He's actively preventing alternatives. No remittances from the U.S., no travel, no trade. He's closing every door. It's the same strategy from his first term, just with higher stakes because Venezuela is gone.
What does Díaz-Canel think will happen?
He's not negotiating. He's talking about mutual respect and international law—the language of someone who won't surrender. But his people are sitting in the dark for twenty hours a day. That's the real pressure.
Is anyone in Trump's team worried this could backfire?
Yes. Some officials are saying the humanitarian cost is too high, that you're just making Cubans more desperate, not less loyal to their government. It's a real debate inside the administration.
What's the endgame?
Officially, they want regime change by year-end. They're recruiting Cuban officials to flip. But whether economic collapse actually produces that, or just produces more suffering—that's the gamble no one can answer yet.