They've taken a pounding like very few people could take.
In the shadow of active military strikes and mounting civilian casualties, President Trump declared a landmark settlement with Iran all but signed — even as Iran denied any final agreement and missiles continued to arc across the Gulf. The gap between announcement and reality has become its own kind of conflict, with diplomats from Qatar and Pakistan threading through the wreckage of escalating hostilities in search of a deal that may or may not exist. What is certain is the cost already paid: sailors dead in the Gulf, hospitals struck in Lebanon, and a global economy quietly absorbing the weight of a war that has no agreed ending.
- Trump announced a 'great settlement' with Iran and a signing ceremony this weekend — hours after threatening the most devastating strikes yet, then canceling them.
- Iran flatly denied any final agreement, with sources close to its negotiating team noting Trump had declared a deal imminent 38 times in two months.
- U.S. strikes hit commercial tankers in the Gulf of Oman, killing three Indian mariners — the first commercial sailors to die in American strikes since the conflict began.
- Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles targeting Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, while claiming to have closed the Strait of Hormuz — a claim U.S. Central Command disputed.
- Qatari and Pakistani mediators pressed on through the night, but the diplomatic track remained fractured, with no confirmed terms, no confirmed signatories, and no confirmed peace.
On Thursday morning, President Trump declared that the United States and Iran had reached a 'great settlement,' with documents nearly finalized and a signing potentially set for this weekend in Europe. He said Vice President Vance would attend, and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen upon signing. Iran offered no confirmation. A foreign ministry spokesman said no final decision had been reached, and sources close to the Iranian negotiating team denied any memorandum of understanding had been approved.
The announcement came hours after Trump had threatened far more dramatic action — posting that the U.S. would strike Iran 'very hard' that evening and telling Fox News the military would seize Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export hub. He later canceled the planned strikes, citing progress in talks, though he did not include Iran among the parties he said had approved the final points.
On the ground, the war continued without pause. U.S. forces struck Iranian targets Wednesday night, hitting what Iranian officials described as a water storage facility serving 20,000 civilians. American strikes also hit three commercial tankers in the Gulf of Oman accused of violating the U.S. blockade. On the Palau-flagged Settebello, three Indian mariners were killed — the first commercial sailors to die in American strikes since the conflict began. India's shipping minister called it 'a profound loss to our maritime family.'
Iran responded with ballistic missiles aimed at an air base in Jordan, drones over Kuwait, and strikes on Bahrain, where falling debris from an intercepted drone injured an 11-year-old girl. Iran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz entirely; U.S. Central Command said commercial ships were still transiting.
Diplomacy continued in parallel. A Qatari team returned from overnight talks in Tehran. Pakistan's foreign ministry acknowledged the difficulty: 'It is hard to be an optimist in the new exchange of hostilities.' Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with Trump, expressing support for dismantling Iran's enrichment infrastructure and limiting its missile program — while noting Israel was not party to any memorandum.
The economic damage was spreading. The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent, made $60 billion immediately available to developing nations, and warned that energy-driven inflation was pushing borrowing costs higher worldwide. Its chief economist offered a blunt summary: 'War anywhere is bad for poor people everywhere.'
In Lebanon, Israeli strikes hit hospitals in Tyre for the sixth time since March, wounding ten hospital staff. Across the country, 17 hospitals had been damaged, three forced to close, and 132 medical workers killed. More than 3,700 people had died and over a million displaced. The UN Secretary-General called for a comprehensive ceasefire and the disarmament of Hezbollah.
Trump's confidence rested on his belief that Iran had 'taken a pounding' and wanted a deal more than he did. He said he understood Iran's supreme leader had approved the tentative agreement — though Iran made no such announcement. When pressed on whether Iran had agreed to forgo nuclear weapons, he said yes, but his language was imprecise, suggesting enriched uranium might remain in place beneath a mountain rather than be removed. The terms remained unclear, the signing date uncertain, and Iran's actual position unknown.
On Thursday morning, President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached what he called a "great settlement," with documents in final shape and a signing potentially scheduled for this weekend, likely in Europe. He said Vice President JD Vance would attend the ceremony. He also said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen as soon as the agreement was signed. Iran, however, offered no confirmation. A foreign ministry spokesman said the country had not reached a final decision on any deal. Semi-official Iranian news agencies quoted sources close to the negotiating team denying that any memorandum of understanding had been approved, and one outlet noted that Trump had announced a deal was imminent 38 times in the previous two months.
Hours before making these claims, Trump had threatened something very different. He posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would hit Iran "very hard" that evening with "bigger, more powerful" strikes. He told Fox News the military would seize vital Iranian oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran's oil exports. But when asked if America had the appetite for such an operation, he hesitated. "I don't know that America has the appetite to do what I would really much prefer doing," he said. He later canceled the scheduled strikes, citing progress in talks and saying that final points of a potential deal had been approved by "all parties involved"—though he did not list Iran among them.
The military reality on the ground told a different story. U.S. forces struck Iranian targets Wednesday night, hitting what Iranian officials said was a water storage facility in the south, leaving 20,000 civilians without fresh water. U.S. Central Command said it was investigating the report. The same day, U.S. forces struck three commercial oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, accusing them of violating the American blockade on Iranian ports. On the Palau-flagged tanker Settebello, the strike killed three Indian mariners. India's shipping minister announced their deaths in a statement, calling it "a profound loss to our maritime family." It was the first time since the war began that American strikes had killed commercial sailors.
Iran responded with its own barrage. Early Thursday morning, the Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at the Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, claiming to have destroyed the facility and numerous fighter aircraft. Jordan's military said it intercepted 20 of the missiles with no injuries or damage reported. Iran also launched drones and missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait's military said it had intercepted 24 Iranian attack drones over two days, with limited material damage and no casualties. In Bahrain, falling debris from an intercepted drone injured an 11-year-old girl and damaged homes and vehicles. Iran's military claimed it had closed the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic, though U.S. Central Command said commercial ships continued to transit.
The diplomatic track remained active but fractured. A Qatari negotiating team returned from meetings in Tehran early Thursday after talks that extended into the early morning hours. Pakistan's foreign ministry said its leaders remained engaged in mediation efforts, though a spokesman acknowledged, "It is hard to be an optimist in the new exchange of hostilities." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Trump about the proposed deal, expressing appreciation for Trump's commitment to ensuring Iran's enriched material would be removed, its enrichment infrastructure dismantled, and its missile production limited. But Netanyahu also noted that Israel was not a party to any memorandum of understanding.
The economic toll was already visible globally. The World Bank lowered its forecast for worldwide growth to 2.5 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent a year earlier, citing the expanding impacts of the Middle East war. The lender made $60 billion immediately available to developing countries hardest hit by the crisis, with the possibility of reaching $100 billion over 15 months. Energy prices had skyrocketed, driving inflation to an average of 4 percent and threatening to increase borrowing costs as central banks tried to contain price increases. The World Bank's chief economist said plainly: "War anywhere is bad for poor people everywhere."
In Lebanon, the toll continued to mount. Israeli strikes hit hospitals in the southern city of Tyre for the sixth time since the war with Hezbollah began in early March. Ten hospital staff members were wounded when an area 50 feet from Hiram hospital was targeted. The Lebanese health ministry reported that 17 hospitals had been damaged in the war, three forced to close, and 132 rescuers and medical personnel killed. At least 3,711 people had been killed by Israeli military actions, with another 11,483 wounded. More than one million people had been displaced from their homes. The United Nations Secretary-General called for a comprehensive ceasefire and for the Lebanese government to have a monopoly on weapons in the country, implicitly supporting the disarmament of Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy in the region.
Trump's conviction that this moment was different rested on a single claim: that Iran had "taken a pounding" and wanted a deal more than he did. "Because they've taken a pounding like very few people could take," he said. "And they want to make the deal a lot more than I do." He said he understood that Iran's supreme leader had approved the tentative deal, though Iran had made no such announcement. When pressed on whether Iran had agreed not to have a nuclear weapon, Trump said yes, they had agreed to that. But his language left room for interpretation. "Nobody's getting close to it because it's buried under a mountain," he said of Iran's enriched uranium, suggesting the material might remain in place. The terms of any agreement remained unclear, the signing date uncertain, and Iran's actual position unknown.
Citações Notáveis
Because they've taken a pounding like very few people could take. And they want to make the deal a lot more than I do.— President Trump, explaining his confidence in a deal
So far, Iran has not reached a final conclusion on the agreement.— Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei
War anywhere is bad for poor people everywhere.— Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why would Trump announce a deal is done when Iran is explicitly saying it isn't?
Because the narrative serves him. He's told his allies—Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states—that he's got this handled. Announcing victory, even premature victory, keeps them aligned and keeps the markets calm. The stock market went up a thousand points, he noted.
But doesn't that risk looking foolish if nothing gets signed?
It does. But he's betting on momentum. If you say a deal is 95 percent done and you've got Qatar and Pakistan working the phones in Tehran, maybe you can push it over the line. Or maybe you're just buying time before the next round of strikes.
The three Indian sailors killed on that tanker—how does that fit into a peace process?
It doesn't. That's the contradiction at the heart of this moment. You're enforcing a blockade, you're striking ships, you're killing civilians. And simultaneously you're saying you're close to a deal. Those two things are incompatible, but both are happening.
What does Iran actually want?
Sanctions relief. The unfreezing of its assets. Recognition that it won't be attacked. But it also wants to keep its nuclear program intact in some form—that's non-negotiable for them. Trump says Iran agreed not to have a nuclear weapon, but Iran's negotiators are saying no text has been approved. They're not even in the same conversation.
And the World Bank cutting growth forecasts—that's real damage, isn't it?
Very real. Energy prices are up, inflation is up, developing countries are getting squeezed. This war has costs that ripple everywhere. Poor people in countries with no stake in this conflict are paying the price.
So what happens next?
Either a memorandum gets signed next week and talks begin, or this collapses and the strikes resume. There's no middle ground here. One side is going to have to give, and neither side has shown it's willing to do that.