Cuba is controlled by GAESA, a 'state within a state'
Across the narrow stretch of water that has divided two nations for more than six decades, a familiar confrontation has sharpened into something more dangerous. The Trump administration has moved simultaneously on legal, economic, and military fronts — indicting a 94-year-old revolutionary, tightening a fuel blockade that darkens hospitals and homes, and signaling military intent through Caribbean skies — while Havana insists it is watching a pretext being assembled, brick by brick, for intervention. What unfolds between Washington and Havana now is not merely a bilateral dispute but a test of how far a superpower will press a small, exhausted nation before the world decides what to call it.
- The US indictment of Raúl Castro for a 1996 shootdown — filed now, three decades later — has transformed a historical grievance into an active legal weapon, with charges carrying the possibility of death.
- An oil blockade enforced through sanctions and seizures has plunged Cuba into cascading collapse: rolling blackouts, shuttered hospitals, scarce food and medicine, and streets where protesters burn rubbish in the dark.
- American military aircraft are flying Caribbean routes with transponders deliberately on — a visible, calculated signal that surveillance and pressure are being maintained and escalated.
- Cuba's government is preparing for what it calls external aggression while holding back-channel talks with Washington, caught between defiant public rhetoric and the quiet arithmetic of survival.
- China and Russia have offered condemnation but little else, leaving Havana diplomatically supported but materially isolated as the Trump administration openly discusses regime change.
The relationship between Washington and Havana has collapsed into open hostility. This week, the Trump administration charged 94-year-old Raúl Castro — still the symbolic heart of Cuba's revolution — with conspiracy to murder US nationals and destruction of aircraft, stemming from a 1996 incident in which Cuban jets downed two small planes flown by Miami exile activists, killing four people including three Americans. Washington says the planes were in international waters; Havana insists they were over Cuban airspace. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche framed the indictment as an act of remembrance. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel called it a political manoeuvre designed to justify military aggression.
The indictment sits inside a larger pattern. Since returning to office, Trump has openly suggested Cuba is 'ready to fall' and floated the idea of a 'friendly takeover.' US military aircraft have intensified surveillance operations in the Caribbean, flying with transponders on — a deliberate signal, according to analysts, that American eyes are watching. Classified intelligence reports, cited by US outlets, claim Cuba possesses hundreds of drones and has discussed striking American targets, with Iranian military advisers allegedly present in Havana. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called Cuba a national security threat while nominally preferring a diplomatic outcome.
The weapon causing the most immediate harm is economic. Since January, a tightened oil blockade — enforced through sanctions and the seizure of tankers — has cut off nearly all fuel shipments to the island. Venezuela and Mexico, Cuba's traditional suppliers, have halted deliveries under American pressure. The result is a society in cascading failure: hospitals struggling to function, schools closing, food and medicine growing scarce, and Havana's streets lit by burning rubbish as protesters voice their anger. Washington has offered $100 million in aid, but only through channels that bypass the Cuban government entirely — a condition Havana has not accepted.
Power in Cuba remains concentrated around the Castro name and the military. Raúl, though no longer president, commands loyalty within the armed forces. The ruling structure is further entangled with GAESA, a military conglomerate that controls much of the economy's productive assets — a 'state within a state,' in Rubio's words. The Trump administration has probed these inner circles deeply enough to make contact with Raúl's own grandson, a colonel in the Interior Ministry.
China and Russia have condemned American coercion in firm terms, but diplomatic solidarity offers no fuel and no food. Whether the blockade alone proves sufficient to fracture the government, or whether Washington moves toward the military action it has been signaling, remains the question on which Cuba's immediate future turns.
The relationship between Washington and Havana has fractured into open hostility. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has escalated pressure on Cuba through military posturing, criminal charges, and economic strangulation—while Cuban leaders insist the United States is manufacturing pretexts for military intervention.
The immediate trigger is an indictment. Earlier this week, the US charged Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president and still the symbolic leader of Cuba's revolution, with conspiracy to kill US nationals, murder, and destruction of aircraft. The charges stem from a 1996 incident when Cuban fighter jets shot down two small civilian planes owned by Miami-based exile activists. Four people died, including three US citizens. At the time, Raúl was Cuba's armed forces minister. Washington says the planes were in international waters; Havana maintains they were over Cuban airspace and posed a security threat. The indictment carries potential sentences of life imprisonment or death. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche framed it as an act of remembrance: "The US does not, and will not, forget its citizens." But the timing is unmistakable. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel called it a "political manoeuvre, devoid of any legal foundation," designed to justify what he termed "the folly of a military aggression."
The broader context is Trump's stated ambition to change Cuba's government. Since returning to office, he has openly mused that the island is "ready to fall" and threatened a "friendly takeover." In March, he suggested Cuba was in "deep trouble." There has been no formal announcement of military plans, but the signals are unmistakable. US surveillance activity in the Caribbean has intensified. Flight-tracking data shows American military aircraft operating with transponders deliberately left on—a message, according to UK drone expert Dr. Steve Wright, that the US has "eyes in the sky to maintain the squeeze." Meanwhile, US news outlets citing classified intelligence reported that Cuba possesses 300 drones and has discussed striking American targets including Guantanamo Bay, Key West, and naval vessels. The same reports alleged Iranian military advisers are in Havana. Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterized Cuba as a "national security threat" and said the likelihood of a peaceful settlement is "not high," though he added that the White House's stated preference remains diplomatic.
Cuba's response has been defiant but constrained. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez accused the US of building a "fraudulent case" for military intervention and said his country is preparing for "external aggression," though he insisted Cuba "neither threatens nor desires war." The government has held some back-channel talks with Washington, confirmed by both sides in March, but public statements have grown increasingly sharp. Díaz-Canel has denounced what he calls "collective punishment" of the Cuban people and demanded an end to the US blockade, which he describes as "the intimidating and arrogant behaviour of the world's greatest military power."
The blockade itself is the weapon causing immediate suffering. For months, Cuba has endured rolling blackouts caused by chronic fuel shortages. Venezuela and Mexico, which historically supplied most of Cuba's oil, have largely stopped shipments since January, when the US removed Venezuela's president and Trump threatened tariffs on any nation sending petroleum to Cuba. Washington has seized multiple oil shipments; only one Russian tanker has reached the island since the blockade tightened. The result is cascading collapse. Hospitals struggle to function. Schools and government offices close. Food, fuel, and medicine are scarce. In Havana this week, protesters blocked roads with burning rubbish and shouted anti-government slogans. The US has offered $100 million in aid, but only on condition it be distributed through the Catholic Church and independent organizations, bypassing the Cuban government entirely. Havana's foreign minister said the island does not reject aid "offered in good faith" and that lifting the blockade would be the most meaningful help.
The power structure in Havana remains opaque but centered on the Castro name and the military. Raúl, now bearing the title "Leader of the Cuban Revolution," still commands respect among the armed forces and security services, even though Díaz-Canel holds the presidency and party leadership. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, 62, is linked to GAESA, a shadowy military conglomerate run by Cuban generals that effectively operates the economic assets sustaining the regime's elite. Rubio has specifically targeted this structure, calling GAESA a "state within a state" and accusing the ruling elite of blocking reforms. Even Raúl's 41-year-old grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, an Interior Ministry colonel and his grandfather's bodyguard, has been part of Trump administration outreach—a sign of how deeply the US is probing Cuba's inner circles.
China and Russia have condemned the American pressure. Beijing called on Washington to stop using "coercion" and "threats" against its ally. Moscow said the pressure "borders on violence." But diplomatic support from abroad offers little protection against the immediate reality: an island without fuel, a government under criminal indictment, and a superpower openly discussing regime change. What comes next depends on whether the Trump administration follows through on its military rhetoric or whether the economic blockade alone proves sufficient to destabilize the government further.
Citações Notáveis
Cuba is not controlled by any revolution. Cuba is controlled by GAESA, a 'state within a state'— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
The charges were being used to justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba— Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why indict Raúl Castro now, thirty years after the planes went down? Why not in 2017, or 2020?
Because Trump wants to delegitimize the government he's trying to topple. The indictment isn't really about 1996—it's about signaling that the old guard, the Castros, are criminals. It's part of a larger campaign to make military intervention look like justice.
But doesn't the US already have a blockade in place? What more can pressure accomplish?
The blockade is working—it's causing real suffering. But it's slow. Trump seems to want faster results. The military posturing, the surveillance flights, the indictment—they're all meant to accelerate things, to make the regime look weak and unstable.
What about the drones and Iranian advisers the US intelligence reports mention?
That's the justification being built. Whether it's true or exaggerated, it becomes the reason for the next step. It's the pretext.
How does Havana actually respond when it has so little leverage?
With words. Defiance. Accusations of imperialism. They're preparing for war they probably can't win, but they're also signaling to their people and their allies that they won't surrender. It's a holding pattern.
What do ordinary Cubans think about all this?
They're exhausted. The blackouts, the shortages—that's what they experience daily. The geopolitical theater matters less than whether the lights come on. Some blame the US blockade. Others blame their own government. Both things are true.