Cuba will not be able to survive
En un momento en que la geopolítica del petróleo se convierte en instrumento de presión política, Donald Trump firmó una orden ejecutiva que autoriza aranceles contra cualquier nación que venda crudo a Cuba, declarando una emergencia nacional. La medida no es solo económica: es la expresión de una estrategia que busca aislar a la isla hasta el colapso, apostando a que la escasez energética haga lo que décadas de embargo no lograron. Cuba, dependiente de importaciones para dos tercios de su consumo diario, enfrenta ahora una presión diseñada para ser total. En el fondo, es la vieja pregunta sobre si el sufrimiento de un pueblo puede ser legítimamente usado como palanca de cambio político.
- Trump declaró emergencia nacional y firmó una orden que permite castigar con aranceles a cualquier país que suministre petróleo a Cuba, convirtiendo el comercio global en arma de aislamiento.
- La caída del suministro venezolano —unos 27.000 barriles diarios— ya había abierto una crisis energética aguda en la isla antes de que esta orden entrara en vigor.
- México, que suple entre 6.000 y 12.000 barriles diarios, se encuentra ahora bajo presión directa de Washington, lo que amenaza con cerrar el último canal de abastecimiento significativo.
- La Cancillería cubana calificó la medida de 'brutal acto de agresión' y advirtió que someterá a toda la población a condiciones de vida extremas, rechazando las justificaciones de Trump como mentiras imperialistas.
- La administración apuesta abiertamente a que el colapso económico —apagones, escasez de combustible, parálisis del transporte— precipite un cambio de gobierno en La Habana.
El jueves, Donald Trump firmó una orden ejecutiva que otorga al gobierno estadounidense la potestad de imponer aranceles a cualquier nación que venda petróleo a Cuba. La orden delega en el secretario de Comercio, Howard Lutnick, la identificación de los países proveedores, y en el secretario de Estado, Marco Rubio, la decisión sobre qué sanciones aplicar y en qué magnitud. Todo ello sin necesidad de aprobación del Congreso.
Trump justificó la medida acusando al gobierno cubano de alinearse con grupos terroristas y adversarios como Rusia, China, Irán, Hamás y Hezbolá, además de señalar persecución política, tortura y corrupción. Ante los periodistas fue más directo: 'Cuba no podrá sobrevivir', dijo, aunque rechazó la palabra 'estrangular' por considerarla demasiado dura. Describió a Cuba como una nación fallida y expresó simpatía por los cubanoamericanos que desean regresar a su tierra.
La respuesta de La Habana fue inmediata y contundente. El canciller Bruno Rodríguez calificó la orden de 'brutal acto de agresión' y denunció que busca imponer un bloqueo total de combustible que condenará a toda la población a condiciones extremas. Acusó a Washington de presionar con amenazas arancelarias a terceros países para que se sumen a una política que, según él, el mundo ya condena.
El contexto energético hace la medida especialmente grave. Cuba consume unos 110.000 barriles diarios y solo produce 40.000 propios. Venezuela, que aportaba cerca de 27.000 barriles, dejó de suministrarlos tras las operaciones militares estadounidenses que derivaron en la captura de Nicolás Maduro. México cubre entre 6.000 y 12.000 barriles, pero también está bajo presión creciente de Washington. La orden busca cerrar cualquier alternativa y hacer el aislamiento energético de Cuba irreversible, con la apuesta explícita de que el colapso económico fuerce un cambio de régimen.
On Thursday, Donald Trump signed an executive order that transforms how the United States will punish countries for selling oil to Cuba. The order grants the U.S. government the power to impose tariffs on goods from any nation that supplies crude to the island, framing the move as a response to what Trump calls an unusual and extraordinary threat to American national security and foreign policy. In the language of the order itself, Trump declared a national emergency.
The mechanism is straightforward in its delegation of power. The U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, will determine which countries are selling or supplying oil to Cuba. The State Secretary, Marco Rubio, will then decide whether to impose additional tariffs and at what level. This two-step process gives the administration broad discretion to punish trading partners without congressional approval.
Trump's justification for the order reaches far beyond oil. In the executive order, he accuses the Cuban government of harming the United States, of aligning with what he describes as transnational terrorist groups and adversaries including Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. He also lists allegations of political persecution, torture of opponents, suppression of free speech and press freedom, and corruption. When speaking to reporters at an event featuring a documentary by his wife Melania, Trump was more blunt. "Cuba will not be able to survive," he said. Asked whether he was trying to strangle the island economically, he called the word "too harsh" but described Cuba as a failed nation. He expressed sympathy for Cuban-Americans who had suffered under the regime and wanted to return home.
The Cuban government responded swiftly and with sharp language. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called the order "a brutal act of aggression" and condemned what he characterized as an attempt to impose a total blockade on fuel supplies to the island. He argued that the measure would subject the entire population to extreme living conditions. Rodríguez also accused the United States of using coercion and threats to pressure other countries into joining what he called a universally condemned policy of blockade, threatening tariffs against any nation that refuses. He dismissed Trump's claims about Cuban threats as lies designed to justify what he sees as American imperialism aimed at subjugating nations in the region, stripping them of resources, and destroying their sovereignty.
The timing and target of this order are not random. Cuba imports roughly 110,000 barrels of oil daily, with only about 40,000 coming from its own production. That means two-thirds of its fuel supply must come from abroad. For years, Venezuela was the lifeline, sending approximately 27,000 barrels daily. But in November of last year, the United States launched military operations against Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who now face drug trafficking charges in New York. With Venezuelan oil no longer flowing to Cuba, the island faces an acute energy crisis. Mexico has been supplying between 6,000 and 12,000 barrels daily, but Washington has been increasing pressure on Mexico in recent weeks.
Trump has stated openly that he believes the end of Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba will trigger a change of government on the island. The administration is betting that economic collapse—fuel shortages, blackouts, the breakdown of transportation and basic services—will force the Cuban population to rise up or force the government to fall. The new tariff order is designed to close off any alternative suppliers and ensure that Cuba's economic isolation becomes total. It is, in essence, a tool meant to weaponize the global supply chain against a single island nation.
Citas Notables
Cuba will not be able to survive— Donald Trump
We denounce before the world this brutal act of aggression— Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why frame this as a national emergency? Oil shipments to Cuba aren't a direct military threat to the United States.
The order doesn't claim they are. It's using the language of emergency to bypass normal legislative processes. Once you declare an emergency, you can act unilaterally. It's a legal maneuver that gives the executive branch maximum flexibility.
So this is really about regime change in Cuba, not security?
That's what the administration is openly saying. They believe economic collapse will destabilize the government. Whether that actually works is another question—Cuba has survived decades of embargo. But yes, the stated goal is to make conditions so dire that something breaks.
What about the countries selling oil to Cuba? Won't they just absorb the tariffs?
Some might. But the threat is real enough that it changes the calculation. Mexico is already feeling pressure. Smaller nations that depend on U.S. trade have even less room to resist. The tariff threat is coercive—it's meant to isolate Cuba by making it economically costly for anyone else to help.
The Cuban government says this will harm ordinary people. Is that true?
Almost certainly. Fuel shortages cascade through everything—transportation, electricity, hospitals, food distribution. The poorest people feel it first and hardest. That's the mechanism the administration is counting on, even if they don't say it that way publicly.
Why did Trump mention terrorist groups and human rights abuses in the order?
It's the justification layer. You can't just say you want regime change. You need to frame it as a response to genuine threats and violations. Whether those claims are accurate or exaggerated, they provide the legal and rhetorical cover for what is fundamentally a coercive economic policy.
What happens next?
Watch Mexico. If the U.S. successfully pressures Mexico to stop selling oil to Cuba, the island's situation becomes critical. Also watch whether other countries defy the tariff threat. That will tell you whether the administration's leverage actually works.