We have a very good chance of making a very broad deal
À medida que Donald Trump embarcava rumo à Ásia, carregava consigo uma aposta diplomática de peso: a crença de que dois dos maiores poderes do mundo ainda podiam encontrar um terreno comum antes que as tarifas transformassem a tensão comercial em ruptura. O encontro previsto com Xi Jinping na Coreia do Sul surge num momento em que Washington ameaça impor tarifas de 155% sobre exportações chinesas, em resposta ao controle de Pequim sobre terras raras — recursos que os Estados Unidos dependem e não podem facilmente substituir. É o tipo de momento em que a diplomacia e a escalada caminham lado a lado, e a direção tomada depende tanto da vontade política quanto da aritmética geopolítica.
- A guerra comercial entre Washington e Pequim se intensificou após a China apertar os controles sobre exportações de terras raras e tecnologias estratégicas, provocando uma resposta americana com ameaça de tarifas de 155% a partir de 1º de novembro.
- Trump, a caminho da Malásia para a cúpula da ASEAN, sinalizou publicamente otimismo sobre um acordo amplo com Xi Jinping — uma aposta retórica que busca manter a porta da negociação aberta antes do encontro decisivo.
- A questão das compras chinesas de petróleo russo emergiu como variável adicional, com Trump sugerindo que Pequim já estaria reduzindo voluntariamente essas aquisições — um sinal ambíguo de pressão eficaz ou de cálculo estratégico independente.
- O resultado do encontro Trump-Xi na Coreia do Sul pode determinar se a escalada tarifária avança ou se uma nova fase de negociações redefine a relação comercial entre as duas maiores economias do mundo.
Donald Trump partiu em direção à Ásia no sábado com uma mensagem de abertura: acreditava que um acordo abrangente com Xi Jinping estava ao alcance. O encontro entre os dois líderes está previsto para a semana seguinte, na Coreia do Sul, e Trump o descreveu como uma oportunidade real para um entendimento amplo — uma declaração que ganhou peso justamente porque o pano de fundo é de crescente atrito comercial.
A tensão não é pequena. Washington ameaçou impor tarifas de 155% sobre exportações chinesas a partir de 1º de novembro, em resposta à decisão de Pequim de restringir o acesso a terras raras e tecnologias associadas — insumos dos quais os Estados Unidos dependem profundamente e que não têm substitutos imediatos. É o tipo de movimento que normalmente endurece posições. Ainda assim, Trump optou por um tom de possibilidade, não de confronto.
Quando questionado sobre as compras chinesas de petróleo russo, o presidente americano reconheceu que o tema poderia surgir na conversa com Xi, mas acrescentou que a China já estaria reduzindo significativamente essas aquisições. O comentário deixou em aberto se a pressão americana estava surtindo efeito ou se Pequim fazia seus próprios cálculos sobre riscos de sanções e isolamento.
O que permanece incerto é se o otimismo de Trump reflete avanços reais nos bastidores ou é simplesmente a postura de um negociador que quer manter o diálogo vivo antes de uma conversa decisiva. O encontro com Xi ocorrerá num momento em que comércio, tecnologia e o equilíbrio de poder entre duas grandes potências estão todos em jogo ao mesmo tempo.
Donald Trump boarded a flight to Kuala Lumpur on Saturday with a message for the traveling press: he believed a breakthrough with China was within reach. The American president said he expected to arrive at a comprehensive agreement with Xi Jinping when they meet the following week in South Korea, a statement that carried weight given the deteriorating commercial relationship between the two nations.
Trump was en route to Malaysia to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit on Sunday. But his mind was already on the larger negotiation ahead. "We're going to talk about many things," he told reporters. "I think we have a very good chance of making a very broad deal." The language was measured but optimistic—the kind of thing a president says when he wants to signal that despite the noise, serious diplomacy is still possible.
The noise, however, was considerable. The trade war between Washington and Beijing had been escalating. Trump had threatened to impose tariffs of 155 percent on Chinese exports to the United States beginning November 1st. The trigger was China's decision to tighten controls on the sale of rare earth materials and related technologies abroad—resources and capabilities the United States depends on and cannot easily replace. It was the kind of move that typically hardens positions on both sides, yet Trump seemed to be suggesting that hardening was not inevitable.
When asked whether he planned to raise the matter of China's purchases of Russian oil during his meeting with Xi, Trump acknowledged the topic could come up. But he also offered a reassurance of sorts: China, he said, was already substantially reducing how much Russian petroleum it was buying. The comment suggested either that pressure was already working or that Beijing was making independent calculations about its exposure to sanctions and international isolation. Either way, it was a data point that suggested room for negotiation.
What remained unclear was whether Trump's optimism reflected genuine diplomatic progress behind the scenes or was simply the posture of a negotiator trying to keep the door open before a critical conversation. The meeting with Xi would occur at a moment of genuine tension—not just over trade, but over technology, rare earth supplies, and the broader question of how two major powers manage competition without sliding into open conflict. Trump's comments suggested he believed such management was still possible. Whether that belief would survive the actual encounter was another question entirely.
Citas Notables
We're going to talk about many things. I think we have a very good chance of making a very broad deal.— Donald Trump, speaking to reporters en route to Malaysia
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why would Trump signal optimism about a deal right now, when tensions are clearly high?
Because he's about to sit down with Xi. You don't walk into that room saying negotiations are hopeless. You create space for movement.
But the 155 percent tariff threat is real, isn't it? That's not just posturing.
It is real. But it's also a deadline—November 1st. That's the pressure point. Trump is saying: we can still avoid this if we talk seriously.
What about the rare earth controls China imposed? That seems like a direct challenge to American supply chains.
Exactly. China is saying it has leverage too. But Trump's comment about Russia oil purchases suggests he's already seeing some movement from Beijing. Maybe they're signaling they're willing to negotiate.
So this meeting in South Korea—is it likely to produce an actual agreement?
That depends on what "comprehensive" means to each side. Trump wants a broad deal that covers trade, technology, maybe geopolitics. Xi wants recognition of China's position and limits on American pressure. Whether those overlap is what the meeting will test.
And if they don't reach a deal?
Then November 1st happens. The tariffs go into effect. And you're looking at a much colder relationship for the foreseeable future.