If Trump restarts the war, it will be far more crushing for America
In the shadow of a war that began in late February, the United States and Iran find themselves in the difficult middle space between conflict and resolution — close enough to speak of agreements, far enough apart to make none final. President Trump declared a deal largely negotiated, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran offered a quieter, more conditional picture of where things actually stand. What unfolds now is less a triumph of diplomacy than a test of whether optimism and caution can find common ground before the fragile ceasefire gives way.
- Trump publicly declared a US-Iran deal substantially complete, naming a sweeping coalition of regional powers as participants and claiming the Strait of Hormuz — strangled shut since the February war — would reopen.
- Iranian officials pushed back immediately, describing the process as a slow-moving framework negotiation with major unresolved differences, and explicitly ruling out the nuclear program from any near-term agreement.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, choking global oil supplies and keeping the economic stakes of failure visible to every nation watching the talks.
- Pakistan has stepped forward as a trusted broker, with Prime Minister Sharif offering to host the next negotiation round and pledging full commitment to a peace process his country helped initiate.
- Iran's chief negotiator issued a blunt military warning — that any resumption of US hostilities would draw a response far more severe than the war's opening strikes — exposing the deep mistrust beneath the diplomatic language.
- A framework agreement of fourteen clauses is the immediate target, with a final deal potentially thirty to sixty days away, leaving the outcome suspended between Trump's confidence and Tehran's caution.
On Saturday, President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had substantially worked out the terms of a new agreement — one that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which much of the world's oil flows. Writing on Truth Social, he described the deal as largely negotiated and said final details would be announced shortly. He listed Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain as participants, with Turkey and Pakistan serving as mediators, and noted a separate call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had gone well.
From Tehran, the tone was far more measured. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqai acknowledged a trend toward rapprochement but cautioned that this did not mean agreement on the hard questions. Iran's immediate goal, he explained, was a memorandum of understanding — a fourteen-clause framework — with a final deal potentially taking thirty to sixty days beyond that. He also made clear that Iran's nuclear program would not be part of these initial discussions, a significant limitation on what any near-term accord could actually resolve.
The talks are taking place against a volatile backdrop. A war between the US, Israel, and Iran broke out on February 28 following American and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. Despite historic face-to-face sessions brokered by Pakistan, no lasting settlement has been reached and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with consequences rippling through global energy markets.
Pakistan has emerged as a central diplomatic actor. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced his country's hope to host the next round of negotiations, pledging continued commitment to the peace effort. But the diplomatic atmosphere carries a harder undertone: Iran's chief negotiator warned that any resumption of American hostilities would bring a military response far more devastating than the war's opening days — a reminder that the ceasefire remains fragile and the mistrust between the parties runs deep.
What the moment reveals is a negotiation genuinely in motion but nowhere near finished. Trump's public confidence stands in sharp contrast to Iranian signals that major gaps persist. The Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the nuclear question remains untouched, and the possibility of renewed conflict shadows every conversation aimed at preventing it.
On Saturday, President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had substantially worked out the terms of an agreement, one that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz—the critical waterway through which much of the world's oil passes. He posted the claim on Truth Social, describing the deal as largely negotiated but still awaiting final approval from both nations and a coalition of regional powers he said had joined the discussions: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, along with Turkey and Pakistan serving as mediators. Trump added that he had spoken separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that the conversation had gone well.
The announcement carried an optimistic tone. Trump wrote that final details were being discussed and would be announced shortly. Yet the picture from Tehran was considerably more cautious. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqai acknowledged what he called a trend toward rapprochement but made clear this did not guarantee agreement on the substantive issues dividing the two sides. He explained that Iran's initial aim was to draft a memorandum of understanding—a framework agreement consisting of fourteen clauses—and that a final deal might take thirty to sixty days to materialize once that framework was complete. Notably, Baqai said the nuclear program would not be part of these initial conversations, a significant constraint on what any near-term agreement could address.
The negotiations themselves have been shaped by recent history. A war between the United States, Israel, and Iran erupted on February 28 after American and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. Weeks of talks, including face-to-face meetings brokered by Pakistan in what officials described as historic sessions, have not yet produced a lasting settlement or restored full access to the Strait of Hormuz. That blockage has strangled global oil supplies, making the waterway's reopening a matter of international economic consequence.
Pakistan has positioned itself as a key broker in these talks. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Sunday that his country hoped to host the next round of negotiations between Iran and the United States, pledging to continue peace efforts with full commitment. The statement underscored Pakistan's role as a trusted intermediary in a conflict that has drawn in multiple regional and international actors.
But beneath the diplomatic language lay a harder edge. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, issued a stark warning after meeting with Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. He said that if Trump resumed hostilities—what he called another act of madness—Iran's rebuilt military forces would deliver a response far more devastating than the opening days of the war. The threat reflected the underlying fragility of the ceasefire and the deep mistrust between the parties. Iranian officials had also accused the American side of making excessive demands, suggesting that gaps remained wider than Trump's public optimism suggested.
What emerges is a negotiation in motion but far from settled. Trump's confidence that a deal was largely done contrasted sharply with Iranian signals that major differences persisted and that any agreement would take weeks more to finalize. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed, the nuclear question remained unresolved, and the threat of renewed conflict hung over the talks even as diplomats worked to prevent it.
Citações Notáveis
A trend toward rapprochement does not necessarily mean Iran and the United States will reach agreement on important issues— Esmaeil Baqai, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
If Trump commits another act of madness and restarts the war, it will certainly be more crushing and bitter for the United States than the first day of the war— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When Trump says the deal is "largely negotiated," what does that actually mean at this stage?
It seems to mean the broad outlines are agreed—reopening the strait, which countries are involved, the general direction. But the Iranians are saying the real work hasn't started. They're talking about a framework agreement with fourteen clauses, then thirty to sixty more days to hammer out the actual terms.
So Trump is claiming victory before the finish line?
Or he's trying to create momentum. By announcing it publicly, naming all these countries, he's putting pressure on everyone to follow through. But it also leaves him exposed if the talks collapse.
Why does Iran keep saying the nuclear program is off the table for now?
Because they know that's the hardest issue. If they try to solve everything at once, the talks break. So they're saying: let's stabilize the immediate crisis first—reopen the strait, establish trust—and come back to nuclear questions later.
And the threat from Ghalibaf about military response?
That's Iran reminding everyone they're not negotiating from weakness. Their military rebuilt during the ceasefire. They're saying: we want peace, but if you restart this war, you'll regret it more than last time.
Is Pakistan really neutral here, or are they picking sides?
Pakistan is genuinely trying to be the honest broker. They have relationships with both sides and they benefit from stability in the region. But offering to host the next round also gives them influence over how the talks proceed.