struggling to hold itself together while drifting erratically
Far out over the waters near Palau, a disorganized tropical depression drifts uncertainly toward the Philippine archipelago — a reminder that nature does not always announce its intentions clearly. PAGASA watches as the system weakens and may dissolve, yet holds open the possibility of its return as a tropical storm before the northeast monsoon ultimately subdues it. The communities of eastern Mindanao, Bicol, and the Visayas wait in that familiar posture of coastal peoples: attentive, prepared, and patient with uncertainty.
- A tropical depression east of Palau is losing coherence, crawling at just 10 km/h and struggling to hold its shape — but forecasters warn it could reorganize before reaching Philippine waters.
- The system may dissolve into a mere low pressure area by Tuesday, only to potentially rebuild into a tropical storm by Thursday, making reliable preparation difficult for vulnerable communities.
- Whether it strengthens or not, its collision with an incoming monsoon shear line threatens to unleash heavy rainfall across eastern Mindanao by Friday and the Visayas and Bicol by Saturday.
- Rough to very rough seas are expected along Luzon's seaboards and eastern Visayas within five days, putting small vessel operators and coastal livelihoods on alert.
- If the system holds together upon entry into Philippine waters, it will become the country's eleventh tropical cyclone of 2023 and the first of November — arriving precisely when forecasters said one might.
The Philippine weather bureau is tracking a tropical depression that refuses to behave predictably. As of late Monday evening, the system sat roughly 1,655 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao, hovering near Palau and losing coherence. PAGASA described it as "struggling" to maintain itself — drifting erratically, slowing from 20 kilometers per hour to just 10, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gusts of 55.
For the next day or so, the system was expected to remain highly disorganized and nearly stationary. But that stillness would not last. By late Wednesday or early Thursday, it was forecast to accelerate westward into the Philippine Area of Responsibility, where it would receive the local name Kabayan.
What it becomes by then remains uncertain. An unfavorable atmospheric environment could reduce it to a low pressure area by Tuesday, yet limited intensification by Wednesday could allow it to climb back to tropical storm status by Thursday — before the surging northeast monsoon, the amihan, likely knocks it back down to depression status by Saturday.
The volatility carries real consequences. PAGASA warned that the system's interaction with a monsoon-linked shear line could produce significant rainfall regardless of its final intensity — heavy rains in eastern Mindanao by Friday, spreading to Bicol and most of the Visayas by Saturday. Rough and very rough seas were forecast across Luzon's seaboards and the eastern Visayas within five days, with operators of small vessels urged to monitor updates closely.
Should the system maintain enough organization upon entry, it would become the Philippines' eleventh tropical cyclone of 2023 and the first of November — arriving in keeping with earlier forecasts that one or two cyclones might form or enter Philippine waters this month.
The Philippine weather bureau is tracking a tropical depression that refuses to behave predictably. As of late Monday evening, the system sat about 1,655 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao, hovering over waters near Palau, and it was losing coherence. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, described it as "struggling" to hold itself together while drifting in an erratic pattern—a meteorological way of saying the storm didn't know where it wanted to go.
The system had slowed considerably. Where it had been moving at 20 kilometers per hour just hours earlier, it was now crawling along at 10 kilometers per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour and gusts reaching 55. For the next day or so, PAGASA expected it to linger near its current position, remaining "highly disorganized" and essentially stuck in place. But that stasis wouldn't last. By late Wednesday or early Thursday, the depression was forecast to accelerate westward or west-northwestward, crossing into the Philippine Area of Responsibility and earning the local name Kabayan upon entry.
What happens next depends on atmospheric conditions that remain uncertain. In the 24 to 36 hours ahead, an "unfavorable environment" could strip away what little strength the system possessed, potentially reducing it to nothing more than a low pressure area by Tuesday. But the forecast also held open the possibility of limited intensification by Wednesday, which could allow the system to climb back to tropical storm status by Thursday. That reprieve would be temporary. By Saturday, the northeast monsoon—the amihan—was expected to surge, bringing cold, dry air that would likely downgrade the system back to depression status.
This volatility matters because of what the system could deliver to the Philippines. Regardless of whether the depression strengthened or weakened, PAGASA warned that its interaction with a possible shear line tied to the incoming monsoon surge could trigger significant rainfall. Eastern Mindanao faced the prospect of heavy rain beginning Friday. Bicol and most of the Visayas would follow by Saturday. For those living in coastal areas, the threat extended beyond rain. The northeast monsoon would churn the seas into rough and very rough conditions across most of Luzon's seaboards and the eastern Visayas within five days. Once the tropical depression entered Philippine waters, it would generate moderate to rough seas along Mindanao's eastern coast starting Friday.
The maritime community was already on alert. PAGASA advised operators of small vessels—motor bancas and similarly-sized craft—to keep close watch on updates, a standard precaution when unpredictable weather systems approach busy shipping lanes. If the system followed its forecast track and maintained at least some organization, it would become the Philippines' eleventh tropical cyclone of 2023 and the first to arrive in November. The weather bureau had earlier estimated that one or two cyclones might enter or develop within Philippine waters during the month. This one, whatever it ultimately became, appeared likely to deliver on that prediction.
Citas Notables
The system is struggling to maintain its strength while moving erratically and remaining highly disorganized— PAGASA advisory, November 13, 2023
There is an increasing possibility that this tropical cyclone may weaken into a low pressure area in the next 12 to 24 hours, but some limited intensification by Wednesday could allow it to reach tropical storm category by Thursday— PAGASA forecast
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does PAGASA keep changing what they think this system will do? Is the forecast just unreliable?
Not unreliable so much as honest about uncertainty. The system itself is disorganized—it's not holding a clear structure. That makes it genuinely hard to predict. It could weaken to nothing, or it could find energy and strengthen. Both are real possibilities.
So when they say it might weaken by Tuesday but then strengthen by Thursday, they're not hedging—they're describing what the atmosphere could actually do?
Exactly. The next 24 hours look unfavorable for it. But then conditions might shift. The northeast monsoon is coming in, which usually kills these systems. But before that wind arrives, there's a window where it might actually get organized.
What's the real concern for people in the Philippines? Is it the wind or the rain?
The rain, mostly. The system probably won't be that strong when it arrives. But when it interacts with the monsoon shear, that's when you get heavy rainfall. That's what threatens eastern Mindanao, Bicol, the Visayas.
And the rough seas—how much of a problem is that for fishing communities?
Significant. Small boats can't operate in rough seas. For communities that depend on fishing, that's lost income and lost food. PAGASA is warning them to stay ashore and monitor closely.
This is the eleventh cyclone this year. Is that normal?
It's within the range of what the Philippines typically sees. But it's a reminder that the season doesn't end neatly. November can still bring systems. This one just happens to be particularly unpredictable.