Landslides are already possible. Then Nando arrives with its own rain.
Once again, the Philippine archipelago finds itself in the path of nature's seasonal rhythms, as Tropical Depression Mirasol crosses Northern Luzon bearing heavy rains and strengthening winds — the 13th cyclone to visit these islands in 2025 alone. Having made landfall in Aurora before dawn, Mirasol moves steadily northwest, carrying with it the threat of floods and landslides for millions living across nine provinces. Yet even as communities brace for this passage, a second system accelerates from the open Pacific, raising the possibility that Northern Luzon may face a far more powerful reckoning before the week is out.
- Mirasol swept ashore in Aurora before sunrise and is now pushing through Apayao, dragging winds gusting to 90 km/h and enough rain to overwhelm rivers and hillsides across nine northern provinces.
- Cagayan faces the worst of it — up to 200 millimeters of rain in 24 hours — while Signal No. 1 warnings stretch from Batanes down to Benguet, and coastal seas churn with waves reaching three meters.
- A second, unnamed tropical depression is racing westward at more than double its earlier speed, 1,245 kilometers away but closing fast, with forecasters warning it could reach typhoon strength by Monday.
- If that second system intensifies as feared, Signal No. 4 winds — among the most destructive the warning scale allows — could be raised over Northern Luzon by the weekend, compounding damage before Mirasol's wounds have healed.
- Even beyond the twin cyclones, the habagat is pushing gale-force winds and scattered storms across Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, leaving almost no corner of the archipelago untouched this week.
Tropical Depression Mirasol was already deep inside Northern Luzon by Wednesday afternoon, September 17, having crossed the island after making landfall in Casiguran, Aurora, just after 3 a.m. By 4 p.m. it was near Kabugao in Apayao, moving northwest at 20 km/h with gusts reaching 90 km/h. PAGASA warned it could strengthen into a tropical storm once it emerged over the waters off Ilocos Norte that evening — the 13th cyclone to affect the Philippines in 2025, and the third to enter the country's area of responsibility in September alone.
The rainfall threat was immediate and serious. Cagayan province was forecast to receive 100 to 200 millimeters over the next 24 hours, while eight other provinces — Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Abra, and Benguet — faced 50 to 100 millimeters. Conditions were ripe for flooding and landslides throughout the region. At sea, waves of up to three meters were expected along Cagayan's eastern coast and off Isabela, with other northern seaboards also turning rough. Small vessels were urged to stay in port. Mirasol was expected to leave Philippine waters by Thursday morning.
But a second threat was already forming on the horizon. Another tropical depression, still 1,245 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, had abruptly accelerated to 25 km/h — more than twice its earlier pace. Not yet strong enough to carry a name, it would be called Tropical Depression Nando upon entering Philippine waters. Forecasters said it could reach typhoon strength by Monday, September 22, and if it did, Signal No. 4 warnings — among the highest on the scale — might be needed for parts of Northern Luzon. Heavy rain could begin as early as Sunday.
Across the rest of the archipelago, the southwest monsoon kept conditions unsettled. Scattered storms were affecting Western Visayas, the Negros Island Region, and the Zamboanga Peninsula, while strong to gale-force monsoon winds were sweeping portions of southern Luzon and Bicol. By Thursday, that wind threat was expected to expand to include Metro Manila and much of the western seaboard — a reminder that even in the spaces between named storms, the Philippine weather season rarely rests.
Tropical Depression Mirasol was bearing down on Northern Luzon on Wednesday afternoon, September 17, having already crossed the island and positioned itself near Kabugao in Apayao province by 4 p.m. The system was expected to emerge over the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte by evening, moving northwest at 20 kilometers per hour with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gusts reaching 90 kilometers per hour. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration warned that Mirasol could intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning once it moved offshore.
Mirasol had made its initial landfall in Casiguran, Aurora, at 3:20 a.m. that morning, then proceeded to traverse the northern portion of the main island. The system was the 13th tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines in 2025 and the third to enter Philippine waters during September, following Tropical Depression Kiko and Tropical Depression Lannie, both of which passed through the area of responsibility within hours. Forecasters had predicted between two and four tropical cyclones for the month.
The rainfall threat was substantial and immediate. Over the next 24 hours, Cagayan province faced the heaviest precipitation, with forecasters expecting 100 to 200 millimeters of rain. Eight other provinces—Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Abra, and Benguet—were forecast to receive 50 to 100 millimeters. The combination of heavy rain and strong winds created conditions favorable for flooding and landslides across the affected region. Signal No. 1 wind warnings remained in effect across a broad swath of northern territory, from Batanes down through portions of Benguet, with the highest possible signal from Mirasol itself set at Signal No. 2.
Seas were also becoming treacherous. The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela were expected to experience moderate to rough conditions with waves reaching three meters high. Other seaboards in the region—including those of Babuyan Islands, Batanes, Aurora, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur—would see waves up to 2.5 meters. The Philippine weather bureau advised small vessels to take precautionary measures or avoid sailing entirely if possible. Mirasol was expected to exit the Philippine area of responsibility by Thursday morning.
But Mirasol was not the only concern. A second tropical depression, still outside Philippine waters, was accelerating toward the country at a faster pace than initially expected. As of 3 p.m. Wednesday, it was positioned 1,245 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon and moving west-northwest at 25 kilometers per hour—more than double its previous speed of 10 kilometers per hour. With maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour and gusts to 55 kilometers per hour, it had not yet reached tropical storm strength and therefore carried no international name. Once it entered Philippine waters, it would be designated Tropical Depression Nando.
The timing of Nando's arrival presented a compounding threat. While the weather bureau stated it was unlikely to directly affect Philippine conditions in the next 48 hours, Signal No. 1 warnings could be raised for Northern Luzon as early as Saturday, September 20. Heavy rain from the system could begin by Sunday, September 21, or Monday, September 22. Forecasters indicated that Nando had potential to strengthen significantly over the Philippine Sea and could reach typhoon status by Monday, with further intensification not ruled out. If it achieved that strength, Signal No. 4—the second-highest tropical cyclone wind signal—might become necessary for portions of Northern Luzon.
Meanwhile, the broader weather pattern across the archipelago remained unsettled. Areas of Luzon not directly affected by Mirasol were experiencing scattered rain and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon, or habagat. Western Visayas, the Negros Island Region, and the Zamboanga Peninsula were similarly affected. Strong to gale-force winds from the monsoon were expected to sweep across southern Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Mimaropa on Wednesday, with the wind threat expanding to include Metro Manila, portions of Cagayan, Batanes, the Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Quezon, Bicol, Mimaropa, and Western Visayas by Thursday.
Notable Quotes
Mirasol could intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning once it moved offshore— Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
The potential Nando may strengthen over the Philippine Sea and eventually reach typhoon category by Monday. Further intensification is not ruled out.— PAGASA
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that Mirasol could intensify into a tropical storm once it moves offshore?
Because a tropical storm is stronger than a depression—higher winds, heavier rain. Right now it's 55 kilometers per hour sustained. As a storm, it could be 63 or higher. That's the difference between manageable and dangerous.
And this second system, Nando—it's still far away, but you're saying it could become a typhoon?
Yes. It's accelerating toward us, and the Philippine Sea is warm. Typhoons feed on warm water. By Monday it could reach that threshold, which means Signal No. 4 winds in the north—that's destructive force.
What does Signal No. 4 actually mean for people living there?
Roofs torn off, trees uprooted, power lines down for days. Flooding that traps people in their homes. It's the kind of wind that stops being a weather event and becomes a disaster.
So the real problem is the timing—Mirasol first, then Nando right after?
Exactly. The ground is already saturated from Mirasol's rain. Landslides are already possible. Then Nando arrives with its own rain and wind. The soil can't absorb more water. That's when you get catastrophic failure.
How confident are the forecasters about this track?
Confident enough to warn people now, three days out. But tropical systems can shift. What matters is that people in the north should be preparing now, not waiting to see if the second one actually arrives.
What happens if both systems overlap?
That's the nightmare scenario. You'd have two cyclones affecting the same region simultaneously or in quick succession. Rescue operations become nearly impossible. Supply lines break. That's when you see real displacement and suffering.