Transport expert questions whether 18-month Armadale line shutdown justifies disruption

Perth's Armadale train line will shut down for 18 months starting soon, and the decision is already drawing fire from people who study how cities move. The closure is part of a $2 billion Metronet project to remove level crossings and upgrade the rail corridor. But a transport expert at Curtin University is asking a straightforward question: Is the disruption worth what we actually get in return?

Courtney Babb, a senior lecturer in urban and regional planning, points to analysis done by Infrastructure Australia in late 2020. That analysis found something striking: the costs of removing those level crossings "significantly outweigh the social, economic and environmental benefits." The Infrastructure Australia report was blunt. It said the project was unlikely to deliver any productivity benefit to the economy at all. For every dollar spent, the analysis found, the community would see only 36 cents in return. There is also, the report noted, limited evidence that removing the level crossings is even the most cost-effective way to solve the problems they're meant to address.

Babb told The West Australian that finding a global comparison for an 18-month closure of a major rail service is nearly impossible. He called it "a bit of an experiment." The government, he suggested, chose this path—one massive shutdown rather than a series of smaller, staged works—for a reason. A staged approach would have taken two to three years longer. But there's another possibility lurking beneath the surface. "Potentially the date of the 2025 election might have something to do with it," Babb said. "They might be banking on the project being done and dusted and delivered by that stage." The risk, though, is real. Other major infrastructure work is happening across Perth right now. The global situation is uncertain. Betting that this project will finish on time and on budget is, he said, a risky move.

The mayors of the councils affected by the closure had mixed reactions—and most of them were blindsided. They weren't consulted about the extended shutdown. They found out only shortly before the government announced it publicly. Canning's mayor, Patrick Hall, called it a "brave and bold decision." Yes, commuters will suffer in the short term. Many will be pushed onto Albany Highway, which is already congested. But Hall believed the long-term payoff justified the pain. Gosnells' mayor Terresa Lynes was less convinced. She said she was "bitterly disappointed" that no level crossings were being removed within her council's boundaries—particularly at the busy William Street and Kelvin Road intersections. "If not completed as part of this project, there is every likelihood that these critical level crossing removals will not be undertaken in the foreseeable future," she said. She also warned that the rail closure would add "significant pressure" to the road network and urged the government to relocate water pipes at Olga Road and Albany Highway before the shutdown began, to avoid creating gridlock.

Armadale's mayor, Ruth Butterfield, acknowledged the "amazing" long-term gains the project would bring to her residents. But she also understood the immediate cost. Some people depend on the train to reach the CBD. Without it, they'll face higher fuel prices and Perth's parking costs. "That is going to be difficult for a lot of people," she said. Transport Minister Rita Saffioti defended the decision. A staged approach, she said, would have meant constantly changing bus routes and timetables as construction moved from one section to another. Passengers would have had less reliable replacement services. The 18-month closure, she argued, is "the least disruptive over the longer term" and allows the work to happen faster in a safer workplace. She also pushed back on the Infrastructure Australia analysis, saying it "does not account for or reflect the wider community benefit." But for Babb and others watching this unfold, the math remains troubling: massive disruption now, questionable returns later, and no guarantee the work will finish when promised.