audiences still prefer the known quantity over the promise of fresh
Each summer, the movie season becomes a quiet referendum on what audiences trust — the familiar or the new. This weekend, Toy Story 5 is projected to lead the box office, carrying the accumulated affection of a franchise that has accompanied generations of viewers from childhood into adulthood, while Supergirl arrives to a divided critical reception that leaves its fate uncertain. The outcome will say something not merely about ticket sales, but about the kind of stories people reach for when the world feels unsettled.
- Toy Story 5 enters the weekend as the projected frontrunner, backed by decades of franchise loyalty and a family audience that neither Supergirl nor Jackass can easily compete for.
- Supergirl has landed in theaters under a cloud of critical contradiction — praised for Milly Alcock's commanding performance, but condemned by outlets like Variety and the LA Times for a flat, earthbound plot that fails to match its ambitions.
- The Guardian offered a warmer dissent, calling the film a sprightly superhero yarn that avoids the convoluted DC mythology that has sunk other entries — leaving audiences to navigate genuinely conflicting signals.
- When reviews fracture this sharply, word of mouth becomes unpredictable, and the weekend box office transforms into a live test of whether star power alone can overcome critical skepticism.
- By Monday, the numbers will tell studios whether audiences still prefer the comfort of known characters or are ready to bet on a smaller, scrappier superhero story with a fresh face at its center.
The summer movie season has opened as a contest between the familiar and the untested. Toy Story 5 is expected to claim the top box office position this weekend, outpacing both Supergirl and Jackass in industry projections. The Pixar continuation carries the weight of four beloved predecessors and the loyalty of audiences who have grown up alongside Woody and Buzz — a demographic advantage its competitors cannot easily replicate.
Supergirl has arrived to a more turbulent reception. Critics agree on little except Milly Alcock's performance, which has drawn genuine praise for her sardonic, self-possessed take on the title character. Beyond that, the reviews diverge sharply. Variety found the film flat and super-horrendous; the Los Angeles Times called it a hot mess with rowdy spirit but a plot too earthbound for its own good. The Guardian was more generous, praising it as a sprightly adventure that sidesteps the confusing DC backstory that has burdened other entries in the universe.
That critical fracture introduces real uncertainty. Superhero films perform reliably when critics and audiences move in the same direction; when reviews splinter, word of mouth becomes unpredictable and opening weekends grow harder to forecast. The box office results arriving Monday will carry meaning beyond the numbers — they will signal whether audiences still favor the known quantity of an established franchise, or whether Alcock's star power and a smaller-scale superhero story have found their own audience tired of the usual blockbuster machinery.
The summer movie season is shaping up as a battle between the familiar and the new. Toy Story 5 is positioned to claim the top spot at the box office this weekend, according to industry projections, edging out two competing releases: Supergirl, a new superhero entry starring Milly Alcock, and Jackass, which rounds out the trio of major releases vying for audience attention.
The Pixar franchise continuation arrives with the weight of four previous films behind it and the accumulated goodwill of audiences who have grown up with Woody and Buzz. The studio's track record suggests the film will draw families and longtime fans in substantial numbers, a demographic advantage that neither of its competitors can easily match.
Supergirl, meanwhile, has arrived to decidedly mixed critical reception. Reviewers across major publications have found themselves divided on the film's merits. Milly Alcock's performance as the title character has drawn praise from critics who recognize her command of the role. The Guardian described her as Superman's sardonic younger cousin, blazing her own path through a grimy, small-scale adventure. Yet the same film has been savaged elsewhere. Variety called it flat and super-horrendous, while the Los Angeles Times characterized it as a hot mess—one with rowdy spirit but a plot too earthbound for its own good. The Guardian offered a more generous reading, calling it a sprightly and sparkling superhero yarn that sidesteps the usual confusing DC backstory that has plagued other entries in that universe.
This critical fracture matters because it signals uncertainty about whether audiences will follow the mixed signals. Superhero films have become a reliable box office draw, but only when critics and audiences align. When reviews splinter this sharply, word of mouth becomes unpredictable. Some viewers will trust the positive takes and show up; others will heed the warnings and stay home.
The box office outcome this weekend will tell us something about the current appetite for established franchises versus new superhero entries. Toy Story 5's dominance would suggest that audiences still prefer the known quantity, the characters they have spent years with, over the promise of a fresh take on the superhero formula. If Supergirl performs better than expected despite the critical pummeling, it might indicate that Milly Alcock's star power and the appeal of a smaller-scale superhero story have resonated with viewers who are tired of the usual DC and Marvel apparatus. The numbers will arrive by Monday, and they will shape how studios think about their slate for the rest of the summer.
Notable Quotes
Superman's sardonic younger cousin, blazing her own path through a grimy, small-scale adventure— The Guardian review of Supergirl
A hot mess with rowdy spirit but a plot too earthbound for its own good— Los Angeles Times review of Supergirl
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter which film wins the box office on any given weekend?
Because it signals what audiences actually want to see, not what critics think they should want. A big opening tells studios whether to greenlight more sequels or take risks on new properties.
But Supergirl has Milly Alcock, and some critics loved it. Doesn't that count for something?
It does, but it's fractured. When reviews are this split—some calling it sparkling, others calling it a mess—audiences don't know what they're walking into. That uncertainty suppresses ticket sales.
So Toy Story 5 wins just because people know what Toy Story is?
Partly. But also because families trust it. There's no risk in taking your kids to see Woody again. With Supergirl, you're gambling on whether you'll get the Guardian's reading or Variety's.
What happens if Supergirl actually outperforms expectations?
Then studios learn that audiences are hungry for smaller-scale superhero stories and that Milly Alcock can carry a film. That changes the calculus for what gets made next.
And if it bombs?
Then we see another round of "superhero fatigue" think pieces, and studios double down on sequels and franchises they know will work.