No one really wants to be the first to take that risk
A political agreement between Washington and Tehran has been announced, but the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas travels — remains functionally closed to commercial shipping. Seven vessels have moved through since the deal was declared; nearly 580 sit waiting. Between the memory of gunfire, the presence of mines, and the unresolved question of who governs passage and at what price, the distance between a leader's proclamation and the sea's actual behavior is proving vast. History reminds us that confidence, once broken, is rebuilt not by declaration but by the slow accumulation of safe returns.
- President Trump declared the strait open, but only seven ships have moved through while 580 vessels — most of them tankers — remain anchored and waiting in the Gulf.
- Captains remember April vividly: Iran announced the strait open, then reversed course within a day, forcing thirty ships to turn back mid-transit, some under fire.
- Mine-clearing operations could take anywhere from thirty days to six months, with UK and French naval vessels already deployed to begin the painstaking work of sweeping the waterway.
- Iran's newly asserted toll system — the Persian Gulf Strait Authority — introduces an unresolved layer of friction into a passage that international law had long treated as free to all.
- The commercial fleet is locked in a collective wait-and-see posture, with analysts suggesting that normalization, if it comes, will be measured in weeks or months, not days.
When President Trump announced a US-Iran deal and declared the Strait of Hormuz open, the world's shipping industry did not move. Analysts tracking vessel traffic found near-paralysis: seven transits since the announcement, and roughly 580 ships sitting idle in the Gulf, most of them tankers, most of them stationary near export terminals.
The blockade had its roots in late February, following American and Israeli strikes on Iranian positions. Iran sealed the strait in response, firing on vessels that attempted passage without permission. The US imposed its own naval blockade in April, disabling nine ships. Trump's announcement that the blockade would be lifted immediately was quickly complicated by a clarification that it would remain until the deal was formally signed — a mixed message that captains and owners in the Gulf understood all too well.
Three concrete obstacles stand between the political agreement and the resumption of normal traffic. The first is mines. Both US and international maritime authorities have warned of floating objects suspected to be mines throughout the strait. Estimates for clearing them range from thirty days to six months, with minesweepers required to crawl at two to three knots through the waterway before a navigable channel can be established. The UK and France have already dispatched naval vessels to assist.
The second obstacle is Iran's new toll system. Where ships had historically passed freely under customary international law, Iran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and begun asserting the right to collect service fees. Trump announced the strait would reopen toll-free, but reports suggest the final arrangement may involve Iran managing the passage in coordination with Oman, with fees attached. The details — who pays, who collects, how it is enforced — remain unresolved.
The third obstacle is the most human: fear. Captains remember the April reversal, when Iran declared the strait open and then closed it again within a day, forcing dozens of ships to turn back, some under fire. That memory has produced a collective caution. Analysts expect the first movement, if it comes, to be vessels trapped inside the strait making their exit — but even that exodus had not yet begun. The gap between a political declaration and the actual movement of oil and goods across open water, it turns out, is not closed by announcement alone.
President Trump declared victory on Sunday. The Strait of Hormuz was open. Oil would flow. Ships of the world, he wrote, should start their engines. But when analysts at the BBC checked the actual movement of vessels through that narrow waterway—the passage through which roughly one-fifth of the planet's oil and gas normally travels—they found something closer to paralysis. Seven ships had moved through since the deal was announced. Meanwhile, nearly 580 vessels sat waiting in the Gulf, most of them tankers and cargo ships, many of them not moving at all.
The blockade had begun in late February, after American and Israeli strikes on Iranian positions. Iran responded by effectively sealing the strait, firing on ships that tried to cross without permission. The US imposed its own naval blockade in April, disabling nine vessels and, according to US Central Command, firing Hellfire missiles into some of their engine rooms. Trump said on Sunday that this blockade would be removed immediately. He later clarified it would stay in place until the deal was formally signed. Either way, the message was mixed, and the captains and owners waiting in the Gulf understood the ambiguity perfectly. No one wanted to be first.
Martin Kelly, a crisis management analyst, put it plainly: it would take an extremely brave captain to navigate the strait in its current state. The memory was fresh. In early April, Iran's foreign minister had announced the strait was fully open. One day later, Iranian authorities reversed course and declared it closed again. More than thirty vessels were forced to turn around mid-transit. Several reported being fired upon. That kind of reversal teaches caution. Ship owners and captains were watching, waiting for someone else to test the waters. Some Greek companies, known for higher risk tolerance, might go first. But the broader fleet was in a wait-and-see posture. Confidence would have to be built slowly, one successful transit at a time.
But even if captains found their nerve, three concrete obstacles remained. The first was the mines. Iran had threatened early in the conflict to lay various types of sea mines, including floating ones that could be released from the coast. Both the Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman's Maritime Security Centre had since issued warnings about floating objects suspected to be mines. The US Secretary of State told Congress that Iran had mined large segments of the strait. The International Maritime Organization's secretary general said mine removal was essential to restoring traffic. The estimates for clearing them ranged from thirty days to six months—a span wide enough to contain genuine uncertainty. The minesweepers would have to move at two or three knots, crawling through the underwater environment, surveying as they went. Then they would need to clear a channel wide enough for ships to move in and out simultaneously. The UK and France had already dispatched naval vessels to the region in preparation. The British support ship RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with mine-hunting gear, was spotted off Cyprus.
The second obstacle was less visible but potentially more durable: the question of tolls. Historically, ships had passed through the strait freely, as a matter of customary international law. But Iran had begun asserting sovereignty over the waterway, establishing what it called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage safe passage permits and, according to Iran's Fars news agency, to collect service fees. Trump had announced the strait would reopen toll-free. But the same news agency reported that under the new deal, Iran would ultimately manage the strait in coordination with Oman, with possible service fees for transit. No one knew what those fees would be, who would collect them, how they would be enforced, or whether other Gulf countries would accept the arrangement. Any payment system, analysts said, would add another constraint on how many ships could pass through each day. It would introduce friction into a system that had previously run on the assumption of free passage.
The third obstacle was the simplest and most human: fear. Captains remembered April. They remembered the reversal, the forced turns, the reports of gunfire. They were positioned in the Gulf, ready to move, but they were waiting. What experts said they would probably see first, if traffic truly picked up, was an exodus of the vessels trapped inside. That exodus had not yet begun. The wait-and-see mentality held. One analyst suggested checking back in a few days, maybe by Friday, to see what the picture looked like then. The political deal might have been announced, but the commercial shipping system—the actual movement of oil and goods—would normalize gradually, if at all. That was the gap between Trump's declaration and the reality of the water.
Citas Notables
It would take an extremely brave captain to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, given the current state.— Martin Kelly, EOS Risk Group
The key point is that the strait may reopen quickly from a political or security perspective, but the commercial shipping system is likely to normalise gradually.— Dimitris Ampatzidis, Kpler
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
So Trump announces the deal and says ships should start their engines. Why aren't they?
Because captains don't trust it yet. They remember April, when Iran said the strait was open one day and closed it the next. Thirty-three ships had to reverse course. You don't forget that.
But the deal is signed now, isn't it?
Not yet. Trump said the blockade would stay in place until it's formally signed. And even after it is, there are mines in the water. Floating mines. No one knows exactly where.
How long to clear them?
Anywhere from a month to six months. The minesweepers have to move at two or three knots, basically crawling, surveying the bottom as they go. It's slow work.
And if the mines are cleared?
Then there's the question of tolls. Iran is talking about charging service fees to transit. That's new. It adds another layer of uncertainty—who collects, how much, whether other countries accept it.
So even if the politics work out, the shipping won't?
Exactly. The deal might reopen the strait politically. But the actual movement of oil and cargo will take weeks or months more. Right now, nearly 580 ships are waiting in the Gulf. Almost none of them are moving.