The price of gasoline has quietly severed its long-assumed bond with crude oil, revealing a deeper structural tension within the American energy system. Refineries — the invisible intermediaries between raw petroleum and the fuel in your tank — are capturing historically wide profit margins, a phenomenon known as the crack spread, because the infrastructure to process crude simply cannot keep pace with demand. No new refinery has opened in the United States since 1977, and that half-century of stagnation now expresses itself every time a driver stands at the pump. Until refining capacity grows
The New York Times
· Aug 19, 2026
· economy
· 1 min de lectura
High
Verificación: Verificado
The 'Crack Spread' Is Keeping Gas Prices High Despite Stable Crude
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Economy & Finance
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Sesgo y Encuadre
No hay datos de análisis detallado para esta lente. Intenta volver a ejecutar las lentes desde el panel de administración.
Impacto Geopolítico
🌎
Refining margin pressures rather than crude costs are sustaining elevated gas prices, with limited geopolitical implications but potential economic impacts on energy-dependent nations.
Escalation Risk
low
Confidence
MED
United States
Europe
Global energy markets
Minimal direct geopolitical shift. Refining capacity constraints benefit existing refinery operators and OPEC indirectly by stabilizing prices despite production stability. No major power realignment.
Similar to 2008 financial crisis when refining bottlenecks persisted despite crude price volatility, creating structural economic drag without geopolitical confrontation.
Lente Económico
📈
Elevated crack spreads indicate refining bottlenecks are sustaining high gas prices independent of crude costs, suggesting structural supply-side constraints in fuel markets.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
HIGH
Energy/Oil & Gas
Transportation & Logistics
Retail/Consumer Goods
Manufacturing
Airlines
Consumers face persistently high fuel costs at the pump despite stable crude prices, increasing transportation and goods delivery expenses. This reduces discretionary spending power and raises inflation pressures on household budgets.
Policymakers may investigate refining capacity constraints, consider strategic petroleum reserve releases, or examine environmental regulations affecting refinery operations. Potential antitrust scrutiny of refiner margins and possible incentives for refinery expansion or maintenance.