Geothermal is a technology, not a commodity vulnerable to political disruption
Beneath the surface of a divided political moment, geothermal energy has found rare common ground — offering the left a clean power source and the right a familiar drilling heritage. A new generation of startups is attempting to unlock the Earth's deep heat from anywhere on the planet, not just volcanic hotspots, using techniques borrowed from oil and gas and reimagined through microwave physics. The promise is immense and the political will is gathering, yet the economics remain a formidable wall: at four times the cost of solar and wind, next-generation geothermal must prove itself not merely as an idea whose time has come, but as one the market can sustain.
- Geothermal energy sits at a rare intersection of bipartisan support, with senators from both parties introducing federal legislation to accelerate its commercialization — but political goodwill alone cannot close a fourfold cost gap against solar and wind.
- Startups like Quaise are abandoning conventional drill bits entirely, using microwave-frequency waves to melt through rock and reach temperatures of 300–500°C that would make each well ten times more productive — a technological leap still being proven in the field.
- Fervo Energy, the sector's first public company, is selling power at roughly $7,000 per kilowatt, and yet Google has already signed a purchase agreement, signaling that data-hungry tech giants may serve as the financial bridge the industry desperately needs.
- The IEA warns that datacentre demand alone cannot scale the technology, and Project Drawdown flags serious cost-overrun risks — leaving the sector navigating between genuine engineering momentum and the hard arithmetic of commercial viability.
- With Quaise's Oregon project targeting 2030 and still in fundraising, the next five years will determine whether geothermal transitions from a promising outlier into a pillar of the clean energy grid.
In a political landscape fractured along nearly every axis, geothermal energy has emerged as an unlikely point of consensus. Democrats see a low-emission power source; Republicans recognize the drilling techniques from oil and gas. That convergence is producing real policy movement, including a bipartisan Senate bill directing the Department of Energy to support advanced geothermal commercialization.
The technology driving this moment is enhanced geothermal systems, or EGS — pressurized fluid pumped into one well to fracture deep rock, with steam or hot water collected from another. The mechanics echo hydraulic fracking, but climate economist Gernot Wagner draws a firm distinction: the seismic risks, in his view, are outweighed by a renewable, always-available energy source capable of delivering power at scale.
What makes next-generation geothermal different from its predecessor is reach. Traditional plants cluster around geological hotspots; the new systems aim to drill deeper and hotter, anywhere on Earth. MIT-rooted startup Quaise is pursuing millimetre wave drilling — using microwave-frequency electromagnetic waves to melt and vaporize rock rather than grinding through it with bits that degrade rapidly at depth. Other companies are experimenting with supersonic projectiles. Quaise's design also recirculates water continuously, limiting consumption and contamination.
The economics, however, remain the central obstacle. Geothermal wells currently produce less power than fossil fuel wells drilled to comparable depths. Fervo Energy, the first next-gen geothermal firm to go public, projects costs of around $7,000 per kilowatt for its Utah plant — more than four times the cost of solar or wind. Yet Google has signed a power purchase agreement, and Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy is backing the sector, recognizing that the capital requirements demand patient, large-scale investors.
The path to competitiveness runs through temperature. At 300–500°C, energy yield per well increases tenfold, reshaping the cost equation entirely. The IEA cautions that datacentre demand alone won't be enough to scale the technology, and Project Drawdown warns of significant cost-overrun risk on early projects. Still, Wagner sees genuine momentum rather than hype — and points to geothermal's structural advantage: unlike fossil fuels, it is a technology, stable and steadily improving, insulated from price shocks and political disruption. Whether engineering breakthroughs can outpace the economics in time is the question the next five years will answer.
In a political landscape fractured along nearly every axis, geothermal energy has become an unlikely point of agreement. Democrats see a low-emission power source. Republicans appreciate the energy independence and the familiar drilling techniques borrowed from oil and gas. This rare consensus is translating into action: states are fast-tracking permits, and in April, senators from both parties introduced the Next-Generation Geothermal Research and Development Act, which would direct the Department of Energy to support the commercialization of advanced geothermal systems.
The technology at the heart of this push is called enhanced geothermal systems, or EGS. The mechanics are straightforward: pressurized fluid gets pumped into one well to fracture underground rock, then steam or hot water is collected from another. It's the same hydraulic fracturing—fracking—that has become both routine and controversial in oil and gas extraction. Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School, acknowledges the similarity but draws a sharp distinction. "From a climate perspective, there's a huge difference," he says. The seismic risks that come with creating underground cracks are, in his view, outweighed by an energy source that is renewable, always available, and capable of delivering large amounts of power.
What separates next-generation geothermal from the traditional kind is access. Conventional geothermal plants cluster around geological hotspots where hot rock lies close to the surface. The new systems aim to drill deeper and hotter, anywhere on Earth. To make that possible, companies are rethinking drilling itself. Quaise, a startup with roots at MIT, is developing millimetre wave drilling—essentially using microwave-frequency electromagnetic waves to melt and vaporize rock rather than physically grinding through it with a drill bit. The advantage is stark: traditional drill bits degrade rapidly when encountering extremely hard rock at depth, and replacing them balloons both cost and time. "Millimetre wave drilling really enables you to access super-hot geothermal just about anywhere in the world," says Harry Kelso, Quaise's communications manager. Other companies are pursuing different approaches, including projectiles that travel at supersonic speeds.
Water is another critical piece of the puzzle. Initial startup requires substantial amounts, but Quaise's design circulates the same water continuously over the superheated rock, minimizing consumption and contamination risk. The company is aiming to have its Oregon project operational by 2030, though it's still in the fundraising phase. The real challenge, though, is economic. "The economics are somewhat challenging," Kelso admits. Geothermal wells currently produce less power than fossil fuel wells drilled to similar depths, making the technology more expensive per unit of energy generated.
The path forward hinges on temperature. Quaise is targeting rock between 300 and 500 degrees Celsius. At those extremes, the energy yield per well increases tenfold, fundamentally shifting the cost equation. Fervo Energy, a Texas company that became the first next-generation geothermal firm to go public in May, is betting on this trajectory. Its Utah plant is projected to produce electricity at roughly $7,000 per kilowatt—more than four times the cost of solar or wind. Yet there are buyers. Google, which consumes enormous amounts of electricity for its datacentres, has signed an agreement to purchase Fervo's power. Microsoft founder Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy venture is also backing the sector, recognizing that the capital requirements are immense.
The International Energy Agency cautions that datacentre demand alone won't be sufficient to scale the technology. Project Drawdown, a climate solutions organization, warns that "early projects carry a significant risk of cost overruns." Uncertainty shadows both the demand side and the cost trajectory. Yet Wagner remains convinced that geothermal has achieved genuine momentum, not hype. He points to a fundamental advantage: while oil, gas, and coal remain vulnerable to political disruption and price volatility, geothermal is a technology—stable, secure, and improving. The next five years will test whether the engineering breakthroughs and political support can overcome the steep economics standing between ambition and scale.
Citações Notáveis
From a climate perspective, there's a huge difference between geothermal and fossil fuel drilling, even though the techniques are similar.— Gernot Wagner, climate economist, Columbia Business School
Millimetre wave drilling enables you to access super-hot geothermal just about anywhere in the world.— Harry Kelso, Quaise communications manager
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does geothermal suddenly have both Democrats and Republicans on board when almost nothing else does?
Because it solves different problems for different people. The left sees zero-carbon baseload power. The right sees energy independence and an extension of existing drilling expertise. It's rare that a technology aligns those interests.
But if it costs four times more than solar and wind, why would anyone build it?
Because it runs all the time. Solar and wind are intermittent. Geothermal produces power 24/7 at full capacity. For datacentres and other facilities that can't tolerate blackouts, that reliability is worth the premium.
The microwave drilling sounds like science fiction. How does melting rock actually work as a drilling method?
They're using electromagnetic waves at microwave frequencies to essentially vaporize the rock in front of the drill. No physical bit means no wear, no replacement delays, no cost spiral when you hit the hardest layers deep underground.
What's the water problem, really?
Initial setup requires a lot of it, but once the system is sealed and running, the same water circulates endlessly over the hot rock. The real concern is whether you can prevent leakage into aquifers during drilling, or whether you're drawing down local water supplies. Design matters enormously.
So Fervo is already selling power to Google. Doesn't that mean the economics are solved?
Not quite. Google is buying because it needs reliable power for its datacentres and can absorb the cost. But scaling beyond tech giants requires either the price to drop significantly or the market to expand. That's still uncertain.
What would actually make this work at scale?
Hitting those higher temperatures—300 to 500 degrees Celsius. That's where you get ten times more energy per well. If they can do that reliably and repeatedly, the cost per unit of energy drops enough that it becomes competitive beyond just premium buyers.