Uncertainty is when the best prices appear
As recession fears ripple through Canadian markets, one investor is choosing conviction over caution, adding to three positions — Goeasy, TD Bank, and Canadian Pacific Railway — that he believes the market has mispriced in its anxiety. Each company, in its own way, represents a different argument for patience: a lender that defies its own headwinds, a bank that has quietly built a fortress across two countries, and a railway on the edge of a transformative acquisition. In uncertain times, the oldest investment wisdom reasserts itself — that fear, not fundamentals, is often what creates opportunity.
- Recession anxiety is pushing Canadian investors toward the exits, creating a tension between market sentiment and underlying business performance.
- Goeasy's stock has fallen a third in a year, yet the company keeps breaking its own records — a contradiction that rewards those willing to look past the noise.
- TD Bank's U.S. expansion and digital partnerships have quietly insulated it from the worst of the downturn, leaving it trading at valuations that historically signal a buying window.
- Canadian Pacific Railway's pending acquisition of Kansas City Southern sits in regulatory limbo, but approval could unlock a new era of revenue and cement its status as a generational holding.
- The investor's strategy — doubling down rather than retreating — is a deliberate bet that today's discounted prices will look prescient once the economic cycle turns.
When recession talk fills the air, most investors reach for the exit. One Canadian investor chose the opposite — quietly adding to three positions he believes the market has punished unfairly.
Goeasy was the first call. The lending company's stock has dropped roughly a third over the past year, the kind of decline that triggers instinct-driven selling. But this investor saw a business that keeps exceeding its own forecasts even as rising interest rates squeeze the broader lending industry. The long-term numbers are hard to argue with: 4,087% in returns over two decades, compounding at 20.5% annually. At 11.5 times earnings, he considers it a bargain hiding in plain sight — and he's still buying.
TD Bank is the second position. Among Canada's major banks, TD has distinguished itself through careful U.S. expansion and a growing suite of digital and credit card products. Those moves have cushioned it against some of the sector's recent pain. With a 4.44% dividend yield and a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1, it offers the kind of entry point that tends to reward patience — the sort of valuation that looks obvious only after the economy steadies and prices recover.
Canadian Pacific Railway rounds out the trio. It's no longer cheap — the investor is candid about that — but he's still accumulating, grateful he positioned early. The company is awaiting regulatory clearance to finalize its acquisition of Kansas City Southern, a deal that promises significant new revenue once approved. Even trading near its 52-week high, he views it as the kind of foundational holding built to anchor a portfolio across the next decade.
The recession talk is everywhere. Canadian investors are nervous, wondering which stocks to dump and which ones might actually survive what's coming. One investor decided to do the opposite of panic—and is doubling down on three holdings that, to him, look cheaper and more resilient than they did a year ago.
Goeasy caught his attention first, though not for obvious reasons. The lending company's stock has been hammered, down a third over the past year. That's the kind of move that makes most people sell. But he saw something else: a company that keeps crushing its own forecasts even though it operates in an industry that should be struggling right now. Rising interest rates have made lending harder across the board. Yet Goeasy keeps posting records. He bought more, and plans to keep buying. The math is simple enough. Over the last two decades, the stock has returned 4,087 percent—a compound annual gain of 20.5 percent. Right now it trades at 11.5 times earnings, which feels like a bargain for a company with that kind of track record.
Toronto-Dominion Bank is the second holding. Among Canada's Big Six banks, TD has been one of the steadier performers, partly because it's grown in the United States and partly because it's been smart about where it's expanded—online banking, credit card partnerships, diverse lending products. Those moves have insulated it from some of the damage other banks have taken. It also keeps beating expectations. The dividend yield sits at 4.44 percent, and the stock trades at 9.1 times earnings. During a downturn, that's the kind of entry point that tends to look smart in hindsight, once the economy stabilizes and share prices normalize.
Canadian Pacific Railway is the third. This one has already moved significantly—it's no longer in bargain territory, which is why he's grateful he bought when he did. But he's still accumulating. The company is waiting for regulatory approval to complete its acquisition of Kansas City Southern. Once the Surface Transportation Board gives the green light, that deal should unlock meaningful new revenue streams and push the stock higher. Even now, slightly below its 52-week high, he sees it as a generational holding—the kind of stock that could anchor a portfolio for the next decade.
Notable Quotes
Goeasy continues to outpace estimates while operating in an industry where it shouldn't be so easy to set such high records— Investment analyst
During a downturn, it's the best time to buy TD stock if you want a solid return to normal share prices within a year's time— Investment analyst
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why hold these three specifically when everything feels uncertain?
Because uncertainty is when the best prices appear. All three are trading below where they should be, and all three have proven they can perform even when conditions are tough.
But lending companies like Goeasy—shouldn't those be the first to crack in a recession?
You'd think so. But Goeasy isn't a traditional lender. It's been setting records despite rising rates. That tells you something about the quality of the business.
And TD Bank—isn't that just a defensive play?
It's more than that. It's diversified enough that it's not getting hit as hard as peers, and the dividend is real money in your account while you wait for the stock to recover.
What about Canadian Pacific? Doesn't the Kansas City Southern deal add risk?
It adds opportunity. Once regulators approve it, the revenue picture changes. You're buying before that catalyst hits.
So the thesis is just buy good companies when they're cheap?
Exactly. And hold them long enough to be right.