The market may be underpricing how these moves fit together.
As the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5–3.75% while inflation lingers at 4.2%, a quieter transformation is reshaping how institutions assess risk: the growing reliance on real-time data and alternative information streams to navigate uncertainty. In this climate, three companies—Tenable, GB Group, and Vertex—occupy a peculiar and potentially underappreciated position, offering cybersecurity intelligence, identity verification, and tax automation at valuations that seem modest relative to the forces now pulling their work toward the center of institutional decision-making. Their story is less about beating the market and more about whether the market has yet understood what it means to live in an economy that increasingly governs itself through live data.
- The Fed's reluctance to cut rates—and its openness to further hikes—has made real-time economic data not just useful but essential, elevating the strategic value of firms that produce and process it.
- All three companies are currently unprofitable and carry meaningful debt, creating a tension between their compelling positioning and the hard financial realities that keep cautious investors at a distance.
- Tenable's AI-driven exposure management, GB Group's fraud and identity analytics, and Vertex's tax automation engines are each threading into the compliance and monitoring infrastructure that banks, governments, and enterprises now depend on daily.
- Despite operating in AI, cybersecurity, and regulatory technology—among the most scrutinized growth themes of the era—all three trade at price-to-sales multiples below their industry peers, suggesting the market may not yet be pricing in their structural relevance.
- Analysts forecast accelerating earnings and margin improvement across all three, but the path runs through competitive pressure, government contract dependency, and the slow, uneven work of turning platform investment into profit.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold its benchmark rate between 3.5 and 3.75 percent, while leaving the door open to further hikes, has done more than rattle bond markets. With inflation holding firm at 4.2 percent, the Fed has quietly signaled a deeper shift: an increasing reliance on real-time data and alternative datasets to read an economy that refuses to behave predictably. For technology and data analytics companies, that shift may matter as much as the rate path itself.
Tenable Holdings, a three-billion-dollar cybersecurity firm, sits at the crossroads of artificial intelligence, data infrastructure, and enterprise security. Its flagship platform helps organizations map and close vulnerabilities across cloud systems, AI deployments, and operational technology. Trading at a price-to-sales multiple of 2.9—below both direct peers and the broader US software sector—Tenable looks modestly valued given its exposure to escalating cyber threats. The company is unprofitable, and questions about margin improvement remain real, but recent product launches signal an ambition to stay ahead of a rapidly shifting threat landscape.
GB Group, a British identity intelligence firm valued at roughly 475 million pounds, quietly powers the fraud detection and know-your-customer workflows of banks, fintechs, and government agencies across three divisions: identity, location, and fraud analytics. Its tools are already embedded in the real-time risk engines that the Fed and similar institutions increasingly depend on. The stock trades at a modest multiple relative to UK software peers, and analysts project growth outpacing the broader UK market—yet the company's current unprofitability and elevated debt have kept the market cautious, even as an Equifax partnership and share buyback program begin to reshape its longer-term profile.
Vertex, a 1.9-billion-dollar tax technology company, automates the calculation and compliance reporting of indirect taxes for large retailers and manufacturers, embedding its rules engines directly into enterprise systems like SAP. Its cloud-based platform and expanding electronic invoicing capabilities—recently extended through an acquisition and AI upgrades—are designed to convert the complexity of shifting tax regulation into predictable recurring revenue. Like the others, Vertex is unprofitable today, but analysts forecast improving margins and stronger returns on equity, and its price-to-sales multiple sits below the US software industry average.
What connects these three companies is not their industries but their shared exposure to a structural change in how institutions manage risk. All three are imperfect, all three are unprofitable, and all three are navigating real competitive and financial pressures. But all three are also quietly becoming infrastructure for a world that increasingly governs itself through live data—and the open question for investors is whether the market has yet caught up to what that actually means.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.5 and 3.75 percent at its most recent meeting, but left open the possibility of raising rates again before year's end. Inflation remains stubborn at 4.2 percent. In this environment of policy uncertainty and persistent price pressures, something else has shifted in how investors are thinking about risk: the Fed's growing appetite for real-time data and alternative information sources to guide its decisions. For technology companies and data analytics firms, this pivot matters as much as the rate path itself. Three stocks from the broader universe of US technology and data analytics providers stand out as particularly well-positioned to benefit from this new focus.
Tenable Holdings is a cybersecurity firm with a market capitalization of three billion dollars. It generated one billion dollars in annual revenue last year, with about 539 million coming from the United States and the remainder spread across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and the Americas. The company's core business is helping organizations identify and fix security vulnerabilities across their IT infrastructure, cloud systems, artificial intelligence deployments, identity management, web applications, and operational technology. Its flagship offering is called Tenable One, an exposure management platform, alongside products like Nessus and specialized tools for operational technology security. Tenable sits at the intersection of three major investor themes: artificial intelligence, data, and cybersecurity. The company is currently unprofitable, but analysts expect earnings and return on equity to improve over the coming years if its AI-driven exposure management strategy succeeds. What catches the eye is that Tenable trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 2.9 times—below both its direct competitors and the broader US software industry. Recent product launches, including Tenable Hexa AI and expanded coverage for cloud and operational technology systems, show the company is trying to stay ahead of rapidly escalating cyber threats. Yet heavy spending on research and development, dependence on government contracts, and fierce competitive pressure create real questions about whether the company can improve its profit margins.
GB Group, a British identity data intelligence company with a market capitalization of 474.9 million pounds, serves banks, fintech firms, online retailers, gaming platforms, and government agencies. Its job is to verify customer identity, detect fraud, and help clients meet know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering regulations using a combination of identity, location, and fraud analytics. The company generated 175 million pounds from its Identity division, 89 million from Location services, and 22 million from Global Fraud Solutions. GB Group's tools are already woven into the decision engines that banks, fintechs, and governments use to get real-time risk signals—exactly the kind of live data the Fed is increasingly relying on. The stock trades at a relatively modest price-to-sales multiple compared with other UK software companies. Analysts are forecasting faster earnings and revenue growth for GB Group than for the wider UK market, which raises an intriguing question: is the market undervaluing the company because it is currently unprofitable and carries higher debt levels, even as strategic moves like an expanded partnership with Equifax, platform consolidation efforts, and share buybacks could reshape its long-term risk and reward profile?
Vertex, a tax technology company with a market capitalization of 1.9 billion dollars, provides software and services to large retailers, manufacturers, and other enterprises. Its customers use Vertex's tools to calculate indirect taxes accurately, manage compliance and reporting workflows, handle electronic invoicing, and embed tax rules directly into enterprise systems like SAP. The company generated 768 million dollars in software and programming revenue last year, with 685.7 million from the United States and 82.3 million from international customers. Vertex operates at the intersection of three powerful forces: tighter Federal Reserve scrutiny of the economy, persistent 4.2 percent inflation, and the growing demand for real-time transaction data. Its cloud-based tax engines and expanding electronic invoicing footprint—bolstered by the acquisition of Brinta and phase two artificial intelligence upgrades—are designed to turn complex and constantly changing tax regulations into more automated, predictable recurring revenue streams. Like Tenable, Vertex is currently unprofitable and carries higher-risk debt. Yet analysts are forecasting faster earnings growth, rising profit margins, and stronger returns on equity. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple below the average for the US software industry, which may appeal to investors who believe that tax automation, enterprise resource planning migrations, and richer compliance data will become increasingly important as interest rates remain uncertain and policymakers place greater emphasis on live transaction monitoring.
What ties these three companies together is not their specific industries but their exposure to a fundamental shift in how the Federal Reserve and other institutions think about risk management. All three are currently unprofitable and carry real operational and financial risks. Yet all three trade at valuations that appear modest relative to their growth prospects and their positioning in areas—artificial intelligence, real-time data, compliance automation—that are becoming central to how modern institutions operate. The broader universe of US technology and data analytics providers includes 26 additional companies with similarly compelling narratives tied to real-time data, AI-driven analytics, and compliance themes. For investors watching this space, the question is whether the market is still underpricing the long-term significance of these trends, or whether the current valuations already reflect the full scope of the opportunity ahead.
Citações Notáveis
The company is still loss making, but analysts expect an improvement in earnings and return on equity over the next few years if its AI driven exposure management strategy is successful.— Analysis of Tenable Holdings
Forecasts for faster earnings growth, rising margins, and stronger ROE are being compared with a P/S that is below the US Software average.— Analysis of Vertex
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the Fed's interest in real-time data matter so much to these three companies specifically?
Because all three are in the business of turning raw information into actionable intelligence at speed. Tenable finds vulnerabilities before they become breaches. GB Group verifies identity in milliseconds. Vertex automates tax calculations as transactions happen. The Fed is moving toward the same kind of live monitoring—they want to see what's actually happening in the economy right now, not what happened last quarter. These companies are already built for that world.
But they're all unprofitable. Why would that be a reason to buy them?
Unprofitability today doesn't mean unprofitability forever. All three are in heavy investment mode—spending on AI, on product expansion, on infrastructure. Analysts expect that spending to pay off in faster earnings growth over the next few years. The real question is whether the market is pricing in that turnaround or still treating them as risky bets.
What's the connection between 4.2 percent inflation and Vertex's tax software?
Inflation changes tax rules constantly. Jurisdictions adjust rates, thresholds, compliance requirements. Vertex's whole value proposition is automating that complexity so enterprises don't have to manually recalculate taxes every time the rules shift. In a high-inflation environment, that automation becomes more valuable, not less.
These three trade at low price-to-sales multiples. Is that because the market doesn't believe in them, or because they're genuinely cheap?
That's the bet. The article suggests the market may be missing something—that the valuations don't fully account for the strategic moves each company is making. Tenable's AI platform, GB Group's Equifax partnership, Vertex's e-invoicing expansion. If those bets work, the multiples could expand significantly.
What's the biggest risk these companies share?
Execution. They all need to turn heavy spending into real profit growth. They all depend on customers adopting new technologies and workflows. And they all operate in competitive markets where a better product or a cheaper competitor could shift the entire landscape. The Fed's data priorities help their narrative, but they still have to deliver.