The market is going to be cautious, given how previous hopes for a deal were dashed.
In the hours after American forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in the Persian Gulf, global markets found themselves suspended between the hope of a ceasefire and the weight of renewed military action. Stock futures edged upward with restraint, oil climbed back toward $98 a barrel, and investors across continents were reminded that in moments of geopolitical uncertainty, optimism and caution are rarely far apart. The question animating every trading desk was not simply whether a deal would come, but whether the architecture of trust required to sustain one could survive the friction of ongoing conflict. Humanity's oldest tension — between the desire for peace and the logic of force — was once again being priced in real time.
- US defensive strikes on Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats shattered the fragile optimism that had lifted Asian markets on Monday, forcing traders to recalibrate overnight gains against the reality of continued military action.
- Brent crude surged nearly 2% to $98 a barrel, erasing Monday's steep 7% decline and signaling that any military escalation — however framed — casts a long shadow over the Strait of Hormuz and the energy markets that depend on it.
- Beneath the caution, a thread of hope persisted: President Trump called talks 'proceeding nicely,' Pakistan's intermediary told Beijing a deal was 'close,' and Secretary Rubio offered a timeline of days rather than weeks.
- Critical sticking points — Iran's nuclear program and demands for frozen asset releases — remain unresolved, with Iran's Tasnim news agency warning the draft agreement could still collapse over these provisions.
- Markets are caught in a repeating cycle: each hint of progress sends stocks higher and oil lower, each strike reverses the trade, leaving investors cautiously optimistic but braced for another false dawn.
The morning after American forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats in the Persian Gulf, global markets awoke to a tension they had come to know well — the fragile hope of a ceasefire colliding with the reality of military action. S&P 500 futures gained a modest 0.6%, a far cry from Monday's exuberance when US markets were closed and Asian shares had surged on breakthrough optimism. With the strikes confirmed as defensive by US Central Command, traders faced a familiar question: escalation, or a speed bump on the road to peace?
Oil answered first. Brent crude jumped nearly 2% to $98 a barrel, erasing Monday's steep 7% decline. The rebound reflected a simple calculus: military action, even defensive, clouds any interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar strengthened, gold retreated 0.6% to around $4,545 an ounce, and Treasury yields fell five basis points as investors sought safety after the holiday break.
Yet optimism refused to disappear entirely. President Trump described negotiations as 'proceeding nicely.' Pakistan's military chief, serving as chief intermediary, told Beijing a deal was 'close to being reached.' Daiwa Securities' chief strategist read the strikes as something short of a war-reigniting act, and Secretary Rubio's timeline of 'a few days' functioned as its own form of reassurance.
The details, however, told a more complicated story. Iran's nuclear program remained a flashpoint. Tehran's demand for frozen asset releases had drawn US objections. Iran's Tasnim news agency warned the draft could still collapse. The record-high optimism of Monday was already fading, and RBC Capital Markets' Abbas Keshvani captured the mood precisely: markets would stay cautious given how previous hopes had been dashed, but genuine progress could still ease energy prices, inflation expectations, and yields.
Across the session, Asian shares rose 0.5% but fell short of highs, European shares were set to drop, and corporate milestones — Zepto's IPO preparations, Ferrari's first electric car — felt peripheral against the larger question: whether the coming days would deliver a concrete agreement, or dissolve into another cycle of raised hopes and renewed military action.
The morning after American forces struck Iranian missile sites and boats laying mines in the Persian Gulf, global markets woke to a familiar tension: the fragile hope of a ceasefire deal colliding with the reality of military action. Stock futures climbed, but cautiously. The S&P 500 futures gained 0.6%, a fraction of Monday's exuberance, when US markets had been closed and Asian shares had surged on optimism that a breakthrough in negotiations might finally ease the war that had roiled energy markets for months. Now, with the strikes confirmed by US Central Command as defensive in nature, traders faced a question they had asked before: was this escalation or a speed bump on the road to peace?
Oil prices answered first. Brent crude jumped nearly 2% to $98 a barrel, erasing Monday's steep 7% decline that had come on thin trading volumes during holidays in London and New York. The rebound reflected a simple calculus: any military action, even if framed as defensive, clouds the outlook for an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most vital shipping channels. That uncertainty rippled through every asset class. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies. Gold, which had climbed earlier in the session, retreated 0.6% to around $4,545 an ounce. Treasury yields fell five basis points as investors sought safety, a catch-up move after the holiday break.
Yet beneath the caution lay a stubborn thread of optimism. President Trump had said negotiations with Iran over extending their ceasefire were "proceeding nicely." Pakistan's military chief, Asim Munir, who has served as the main intermediary between the warring sides, had told China an agreement was "close to being reached." Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities, offered a reading of the strikes that many traders seemed to share: the attack was not viewed as an attempt to reignite the war, and the overall trajectory toward a deal remained intact. Secretary of State Marco Rubio added a timeline—negotiations would take a few days—which itself was a form of reassurance, a signal that talks were moving forward rather than stalling.
But the details told a more complicated story. Key sticking points remained unresolved. Iran's nuclear program was still a flashpoint. Tehran's demand that frozen assets be released had drawn US objections. According to Iran's Tasnim news agency, the draft agreement could still collapse over these provisions. The initial momentum that had sent global stocks to a record high on Monday—driven by bets that the worst of the energy shock might be over—was already fading. Abbas Keshvani, director of Asia macro strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore, captured the market's mood: "The market is going to be cautious, given how previous hopes for a deal were dashed. But progress in the talks could lead to a further reduction in energy prices, inflation expectations, and therefore yields."
Across markets, the day's moves reflected this hesitation. Asian shares rose 0.5% but fell short of session highs. European shares were set to drop. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.5%, though Chinese investors were navigating a new obstacle: Beijing's most forceful crackdown yet on illicit cross-border stock trading, forcing them to find alternative ways to buy and sell overseas equities. In corporate news, the rapid-commerce firm Zepto was preparing to file for an IPO that could raise up to $1 billion, and Ferrari unveiled its first fully electric car, a five-seat model priced at €550,000. But these developments seemed almost peripheral to the larger question hanging over markets: whether the next few days would bring a deal that eased energy prices and inflation, or another round of dashed hopes and military action.
The pattern was becoming familiar. Each hint of progress sent stocks higher and oil lower. Each military strike reversed the trade. Investors remained caught in this cycle, cautiously optimistic but braced for disappointment, waiting to see whether the back-and-forth over a Middle East agreement would finally resolve into something concrete or dissolve into another false dawn.
Citações Notáveis
The market is going to be cautious, given how previous hopes for a deal were dashed. But progress in the talks could lead to a further reduction in energy prices, inflation expectations, and therefore yields.— Abbas Keshvani, RBC Capital Markets
As the US and Iran make progress toward an agreement, the attack is not viewed as an attempt to re-escalate the war, and the overall scenario towards the deal is unlikely to change.— Yugo Tsuboi, Daiwa Securities
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did the market react so mildly to the strikes, given that they involved actual military action?
Because traders have learned to read the subtext. The strikes were framed as defensive—hitting missile sites and mine-laying boats—not as an escalation of the war itself. And more importantly, the negotiators kept talking. Trump said talks were proceeding nicely. Pakistan's military chief told China a deal was close. That messaging mattered more than the strikes.
But oil prices jumped 2%. That suggests the market was worried about something.
Oil jumped because the strikes created uncertainty about the deal timeline. If negotiations collapse, the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and energy prices stay elevated. The market had priced in a breakthrough. The strikes reminded traders that breakthroughs aren't guaranteed.
What are the actual obstacles to a deal?
Iran's nuclear program and frozen assets. The US objects to releasing Tehran's frozen money, and Iran wants its nuclear program treated as a legitimate part of any agreement. These aren't small disagreements. They're the kind of things that have derailed talks before.
So why did stocks hit a record high on Monday if these problems were already known?
Because the market was betting on momentum. When you've been in a grinding conflict for months, any signal that both sides are serious about talking can feel like a turning point. Monday felt like that moment. By Tuesday, after the strikes, traders were remembering that turning points can turn the other way.
What happens if the deal falls apart?
Oil stays high, inflation expectations stay elevated, and the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer. That's the scenario that keeps traders cautious. The upside—lower energy prices, lower inflation, lower rates—is real. But so is the downside.