Markets bracing for losses before the opening bell
When nations exchange strikes across the Persian Gulf, the tremors reach every trading floor on earth before dawn. Iran's attack on Kuwait International Airport and the American military response on Qeshm Island have reminded markets, once again, that geopolitical fracture lines run directly beneath the foundations of global commerce. From Tokyo to Mumbai, investors are doing what they always do when the world feels suddenly less legible — retreating toward safety and waiting for the smoke to clear.
- Iran struck Kuwait International Airport and the US responded with defensive strikes on Qeshm Island, turning an already tense standoff into an active military exchange that rattled every major trading floor overnight.
- Japan's Nikkei fell nearly 1.7%, South Korea's Kospi dropped 1.6%, and Wall Street closed between 0.7% and 1.2% lower — a synchronized global selloff driven by fear that the conflict could widen and choke energy supply lines.
- Oil climbed to $96.72 a barrel before erasing gains as traders struggled to read whether the escalation would hold or fade, while gold rose and silver fell — a classic rotation into safety with no clear destination in sight.
- India's GIFT Nifty signaled an open roughly 180 points lower, compounding domestic anxiety as the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee prepares to announce a rate decision Friday — a moment of central bank clarity arriving in the middle of maximum geopolitical noise.
- The deeper fear is structural: an energy price spike feeding inflation at a moment when growth is already fragile, forcing central banks and consumers alike into corners they had hoped to avoid.
Markets opened Thursday under a familiar weight — the kind that settles in when geopolitical events outpace diplomatic assurances. Overnight, Iran struck Kuwait International Airport, and US Central Command confirmed it had intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles before launching defensive strikes against targets on Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf. President Trump offered reassurances about Iran's nuclear intentions and a Lebanon ceasefire tied to Hezbollah's withdrawal, but trading floors are poor audiences for diplomatic optimism.
The damage spread quickly across time zones. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 1.67 percent and Seoul's Kospi dropped 1.63 percent in early trading. The previous night on Wall Street had already set the tone — the Dow down 1.21 percent, the S&P 500 off 0.74 percent, the Nasdaq retreating 0.89 percent — with US futures continuing to bleed into Thursday morning.
India faced a compounded challenge. The GIFT Nifty was pointing to an open around 23,335, down roughly 180 points, as investors absorbed not only the geopolitical shock but the looming weight of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision due Friday. Whether the RBI would cut rates or hold steady in the face of global turbulence was a question no one could answer with confidence.
Oil, the commodity that translates Middle Eastern tension most directly into economic pain, hovered at $96.72 a barrel after erasing earlier gains. Gold rose as a safe-haven trade; silver fell. The underlying anxiety was straightforward: sustained hostilities mean higher energy prices, which feed inflation, which complicates the work of every central bank already straining to keep growth alive.
Three domestic IPOs — CMR Green Technologies, Vahh Chemicals, and UHM Vacation — were opening or continuing their subscription windows, seeking a combined sum that would barely register against the scale of the day's losses. On a morning when geopolitical risk was repricing assets across the globe, fresh capital raises were, at best, a footnote.
The morning opened with a familiar dread: markets bracing for losses before the opening bell. Across Asia and the United States, the news was the same. Geopolitical friction between Washington and Tehran had reignited overnight, sending traders into a defensive crouch and pulling equities lower across nearly every major index.
The immediate trigger was stark. Iran had struck Kuwait International Airport early Wednesday. The day before, the US Central Command announced it had intercepted multiple ballistic missiles launched from Iran and responded with defensive strikes against targets on Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf. The escalation was real, the rhetoric was hot, and the markets were pricing in uncertainty. President Trump told reporters that Iran had agreed to forgo nuclear weapons development, and that Israel had secured a ceasefire with Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah's withdrawal from border zones. But the assurances did little to calm the trading floors.
In Tokyo and Seoul, the damage was already visible. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.67 percent in early trading. South Korea's Kospi dropped 1.63 percent. The previous night on Wall Street had been worse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.21 percent. The S&P 500 retreated 0.74 percent. The Nasdaq Composite settled 0.89 percent lower. Futures trading in the US on Thursday morning showed the bleeding continuing—the S&P 500 futures down 0.45 percent, the Dow futures barely holding ground at minus 0.01 percent.
India's market was set to follow suit. The GIFT Nifty, a futures contract that signals the direction of the Nifty50 index at the open, was quoting around 23,335, down roughly 180 points. Investors faced a double bind: the geopolitical shock was real, but so was the domestic calendar. The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee would announce its decision on Friday, and traders were holding their breath, uncertain whether the central bank would cut rates or hold steady in the face of global turbulence.
Oil, the commodity most sensitive to Middle Eastern friction, was sending mixed signals. Brent crude futures for June delivery were quoted at $96.72 per barrel on Thursday morning, having erased earlier gains as traders tried to assess whether the tension would persist or cool. Gold futures rose 0.59 percent—the classic safe-haven trade—while silver futures fell 0.55 percent, suggesting some investors were rotating out of riskier assets.
The broader concern animating the selloff was structural. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East meant energy prices could spike, pushing inflation higher at a moment when central banks were already struggling to manage price pressures. Growth outlooks, already fragile in several economies, could deteriorate further if oil prices climbed and consumers pulled back spending. It was the old equation: geopolitical risk plus energy shock plus inflation anxiety equals equity weakness.
On the domestic front, three new initial public offerings were either opening or continuing their subscription windows. CMR Green Technologies was in its second day of fundraising, seeking 630.88 crore rupees at 192 rupees per share. Vahh Chemicals and UHM Vacation were opening their subscription drives on Thursday, targeting 13.45 crore and 36.02 crore rupees respectively. In normal times, fresh capital raises might draw attention. On a morning when geopolitical risk was repricing global assets, they were likely to be an afterthought.
Notable Quotes
Iran has agreed not to have nuclear weapons, and Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon if Hezbollah stops— US President Donald Trump
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a conflict between the US and Iran ripple all the way to Indian stock indices?
Because oil flows through every economy. When the Middle East gets unstable, traders immediately worry about energy prices spiking, which feeds inflation, which makes central banks hesitant to cut rates, which makes equities less attractive. India imports most of its oil, so the impact is direct.
But Trump said Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons. Doesn't that calm things down?
In theory, yes. In practice, traders don't trust statements made in the heat of a military exchange. They saw actual missile interceptions and retaliatory strikes. Words come later. Markets move on what they can see happening.
What's the RBI decision got to do with this?
Everything, right now. If the central bank cuts rates Friday, it signals confidence in the economy despite global chaos. If it holds or raises, it signals caution. Investors are frozen waiting for that signal before committing fresh money.
So Indian markets are caught between two shocks—one external, one domestic?
Exactly. The geopolitical shock is immediate and visible. The policy shock is coming tomorrow. Investors are essentially waiting in a holding pattern, which is why you see futures down but not collapsing—it's defensive, not panicked.
What would it take for this to reverse?
Either the US and Iran step back from the brink, or oil prices stabilize and traders convince themselves the shock is contained. Right now, neither has happened. The tension is fresh, the strikes are real, and no one knows if there's another round coming.