No-one has ever got rich betting against Keir Starmer
In the aftermath of bruising election results, Britain's Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer finds himself at one of those crossroads that test whether a leader's past resilience can carry them through present doubt. Senior colleagues have departed, a potential rival is positioning himself for Westminster, and the question of succession has moved from rumour into open debate. Yet those who know Starmer longest argue that his entire career has been a quiet refutation of those who counted him out — and that this moment may be no different.
- Labour's poor election results have cracked the dam of loyalty, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting and several junior ministers already walking out.
- Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, is manoeuvring toward a Westminster return via the June 18th Makerfield by-election, making him the most visible face of a potential leadership challenge.
- In a striking display of internal contradiction, Starmer and Streeting are expected to campaign for Burnham — their own rival — exposing the party's fractures in real time.
- Attorney General Lord Hermer, a thirty-year friend of the PM, has gone on record to argue that Starmer's defining trait is the capacity to be underestimated and then prevail.
- The Makerfield result will serve as the first tangible barometer of whether the party can hold together — or whether the machinery of succession has already begun to turn in earnest.
Labour's recent election results have been damaging enough that questions about Sir Keir Starmer's leadership are no longer confined to private conversations. Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, joined by junior ministers, and the architecture of potential succession is already visible.
Into this turbulence stepped Lord Hermer, the government's Attorney General and Starmer's friend since they met as barristers at Doughty Street Chambers in 1996. Speaking to the BBC, Hermer made a deliberate and personal case for the prime minister's survival. His argument was grounded in history: Starmer has been underestimated at every stage of his career — as Director of Public Prosecutions, as Labour leader — and has consistently proved his doubters wrong. When Starmer won his 2024 landslide, he brought Hermer into government as his chief legal officer, a reflection of the depth of that trust. 'No-one has ever got rich betting against Keir Starmer,' Hermer said.
The most immediate test arrives on June 18th, when Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester and the most credible potential leadership rival, contests the Makerfield by-election in a bid to return to Westminster. In a moment that captures the strangeness of Labour's current position, both Starmer and Streeting are expected to campaign for him. Hermer declined to engage with questions about Burnham's ambitions, saying only that he wanted him to win and that he would strengthen the parliamentary party.
Hermer also offered a rebuttal to Tony Blair's suggestion that Starmer lacked vision, arguing that the prime minister's purpose is clear: to ensure that every person, whatever their background or circumstances, has a fair chance to reach their potential. Whether that vision, or the resilience Hermer describes, will prove sufficient is a question the coming weeks will begin to answer.
The prime minister's grip on power has loosened. Labour's recent election results have been poor enough that questions about Sir Keir Starmer's future as party leader are no longer whispered in backrooms—they are being asked openly, and loudly. In the wreckage, senior figures have already walked away. Wes Streeting, who served as Health Secretary, resigned along with a handful of junior ministers. The machinery of potential succession is already turning.
But Starmer has a defender, and it is a significant one. Lord Hermer, the government's chief legal adviser and the prime minister's friend for three decades, sat down with the BBC to make a case: Starmer can survive this. He will survive this. The two men met in 1996 as barristers at Doughty Street Chambers, both specializing in human rights law. When Starmer won his landslide in 2024, he brought Hermer into government as his top legal officer—a choice that reflected both trust and the depth of their bond.
Hermer's argument rested on a simple observation: Starmer has spent his entire career being underestimated, and he has spent his entire career proving people wrong. As Director of Public Prosecutions, he took on organized crime syndicates, corrupt politicians, hostile media. When he became Labour leader, the consensus was that he could never make the party electable within three election cycles. Yet he won in 2024. "No-one has ever got rich betting against Keir Starmer," Hermer said. Asked directly whether the prime minister believed he could survive the current storm, Hermer answered without hesitation: "Yes, I think he does."
The most immediate test of that confidence arrives this month. Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is widely regarded as the frontrunner in any future leadership contest. He is running in the Makerfield by-election on June 18th—an attempt to return to Westminster. What makes this moment strange, almost surreal, is that Starmer and Streeting, despite their obvious rivalry with Burnham, will be campaigning for him to win. The party's internal fractures are on full display.
When asked about Burnham's ambitions and what they might mean for Starmer's future, Hermer declined to speculate. He said only that he wanted Burnham to win the by-election, that Burnham was a talented politician who would strengthen the Parliamentary Labour Party. On Starmer himself, Hermer offered a portrait of a man not consumed by anger at the chaos around him, but rather defined by resilience. "He'd have lots of good reason to be angry," Hermer acknowledged, "but that's not what I pick up from him."
Hermer also pushed back against criticism from Tony Blair, the former prime minister, who had suggested that Starmer lacked vision. Hermer disagreed sharply. The prime minister's vision, he argued, is clear and rooted in a simple principle: that every person, regardless of their parents' wealth or the circumstances of their birth, deserves a fair chance to reach their potential. It is a vision of equality and respect. Whether that vision, or Starmer's resilience, will be enough to weather the storm ahead remains to be seen. The Makerfield by-election will offer the first real measure.
Citações Notáveis
Keir has consistently been underestimated throughout his life, and he has always proven his critics wrong.— Lord Hermer, Attorney General
Keir is leader, prime minister, with a mandate from the general election and an absolute determination to better this country.— Lord Hermer
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why would Starmer's closest allies be so publicly confident right now, when the numbers suggest real danger?
Because they're betting on something deeper than the current moment. Hermer has known Starmer for thirty years. He's watched him survive things that should have ended careers. That history matters more than this week's headlines.
But Streeting resigned. That's not just noise—that's a cabinet officer walking away.
True. And it signals that some people inside the tent have decided the tent itself might collapse. But Hermer's point is that Starmer has always been underestimated by people who should know better. The question is whether this time is actually different.
What about Burnham? He's clearly positioning himself as the alternative.
That's the strange part. Burnham might be Starmer's successor, but right now they have to campaign together. It's a party that's publicly auditioning its next leader while the current one is still in the job.
Does Hermer actually believe what he's saying, or is he just doing his job as a loyal friend?
Probably both. But loyalty doesn't require you to go on the BBC and make a public case unless you genuinely think there's a case to make. He's not just defending Starmer—he's defending the idea that Starmer has earned the benefit of the doubt.
What would it take for Starmer to actually fall?
Something that breaks the pattern Hermer keeps pointing to. A moment where being underestimated doesn't matter anymore because the party has simply moved on. The Makerfield by-election might be that moment, or it might just be another test he passes.