Banks are rewarding flexibility while penalizing certainty
Variable mortgage differentials are falling, with Kutxabank, Coinc, Bankinter, and Sabadell now offering rates at or below Euribor plus 0.5%. Fixed-rate mortgages have become more expensive, with only Caja de Ingenieros reducing its offer to 3.35% TAE; most banks increased fixed rates by 20-30 basis points.
- Euribor ended January at 2.245%, now at 2.216%, after five months of increases
- Four banks now offer variable spreads at or below Euribor plus 0.5%: Kutxabank, Coinc, Bankinter, Sabadell
- Fixed-rate mortgages rose 20-30 basis points at most banks; only Caja de Ingenieros cut to 3.35% TAE
Spanish banks are reducing differentials on variable-rate mortgages while raising fixed-rate costs, with Euribor stabilizing around 2.2% after five months of increases.
After five months of climbing higher, the Euribor—the benchmark rate that anchors hundreds of thousands of Spanish mortgages—has finally caught its breath. It ended January at 2.245% and now sits around 2.216%, a small but meaningful exhale for borrowers whose monthly payments have been creeping upward. For those shopping for a home loan right now, the relief comes with a twist: banks are playing a calculated game, cutting what they charge on top of the Euribor for variable-rate mortgages while simultaneously raising the sticker price on fixed-rate deals.
The shift is visible in the monthly ranking of mortgage offers that El Confidencial tracks. Six weeks ago, only Kutxabank was offering a variable-rate mortgage with a spread—the bank's markup over Euribor—at or below 0.5 percentage points. Today, that group has expanded to four players. Coinc and Bankinter now charge 2.3% for the first three years, then Euribor plus 0.5% thereafter, down from their previous offer of 2.25% in year one followed by Euribor plus 0.7%. Sabadell has trimmed its opening rate to 1.5% for the first year with Euribor plus 0.5% after, improving on the 1.65% and Euribor plus 0.55% it quoted a month and a half earlier. Not every bank moved in the same direction—Unicaja widened its spread from 0.6% to 0.65%, swimming against the current.
The picture inverts sharply for borrowers seeking the certainty of a fixed rate locked in for the life of the loan. Here, the options have deteriorated across the board, with a single exception. Caja de Ingenieros lowered its fixed-rate offer from 3.45% to 3.35% annual percentage rate, the only bank moving downward. Ibercaja remains the third-best choice but raised its price from 3.1% to 3.25%. The three banks that cut variable spreads—Sabadell, Bankinter, and Coinc—all raised their fixed rates instead. Sabadell climbed from 3.33% to 3.58%, while Bankinter and Coinc each increased by roughly 30 basis points.
Mixed-rate mortgages, which combine a fixed period with a variable period, followed the same pattern as fixed rates: the initial fixed portion became more expensive. On the variable side, most banks left their spreads untouched, though Bankinter improved its offer from Euribor plus 0.7% to 0.5%, while Abanca moved in the opposite direction, raising from 0.5% to 0.7%. Cajamar, which had been one of the most attractive options in the previous survey, increased the cost of its five-year fixed opening from 1.79% to 1.9%, keeping the subsequent variable portion at Euribor plus 0.5%. Ibercaja raised its five-year fixed opening from 1.55% to 1.85%.
The pattern reveals a deliberate strategy: banks are competing aggressively for borrowers willing to accept payment uncertainty, betting that Euribor stabilization means variable-rate customers won't face the shock of rapidly rising payments. For those seeking stability, the message is blunt—you'll pay more for it. The Euribor's pause after months of gains has created a moment of relative calm, but the mortgage market is telling a different story: lenders are hedging their bets, rewarding flexibility while penalizing certainty.
Citações Notáveis
Banks are competing aggressively for borrowers willing to accept payment uncertainty, betting that Euribor stabilization means variable-rate customers won't face shock from rapidly rising payments.— Market analysis
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why would banks cut spreads on variable rates while raising fixed rates at the same time? That seems contradictory.
It's not contradictory if you think about what each product signals. A variable rate means the customer absorbs future interest-rate risk. By cutting spreads, banks are saying: we think Euribor has peaked, so we can afford to compete hard for these borrowers. Fixed rates are the opposite—the bank locks in the risk. When Euribor was climbing, fixed rates had to climb too to protect the bank's margin. Now that it's stabilizing, you'd think fixed rates would fall. But they're rising instead.
So the banks are betting Euribor won't go much higher?
Exactly. If they believed rates would keep climbing, they'd be desperate to lock in fixed customers at lower rates. Instead, they're raising fixed prices, which tells you they think the worst is behind us. They're comfortable taking variable-rate customers because they don't expect to lose money on the spread.
What about the customer who just wants predictability? The one who doesn't want to think about Euribor at all?
That customer is being punished. Fixed rates are up across the board except for one bank. The message is clear: if you want certainty, you're going to pay for it. The banks have decided that predictability is a luxury good right now.
Is this sustainable? Can they keep cutting variable spreads?
Only if Euribor stays flat or falls. The moment it starts climbing again, those tight spreads become a liability. Banks are making a bet. If they're wrong, they'll tighten up again. But right now, they're confident enough to compete.