A partnership worth $1.25 billion monthly can dissolve in half a year
Na véspera de sua estreia histórica no Nasdaq, a SpaceX revela não apenas a ambição de levantar US$ 75 bilhões, mas também a filosofia que guia sua relação com o poder: distribuir riqueza entre os mais próximos antes que o mercado defina o preço. A oferta pública, marcada para 12 de junho, carrega consigo tanto a promessa de uma valorização sem precedentes quanto a fragilidade de parcerias que podem se desfazer em noventa dias — lembrando que grandeza e instabilidade raramente caminham separadas.
- A SpaceX se prepara para o maior IPO da história da tecnologia, mirando uma captação de US$ 75 bilhões em uma única oferta no Nasdaq.
- Até 5% das ações serão reservadas a funcionários e pessoas escolhidas pela liderança, sem as restrições de lock-up que normalmente protegem o mercado de vendas imediatas por insiders.
- A ausência de critérios transparentes para a seleção dos beneficiados concentra um privilégio extraordinário nas mãos do conselho e da diretoria executiva.
- O contrato de US$ 1,25 bilhão mensais com a Anthropic, que sustenta parte da narrativa de receita da empresa, pode ser encerrado por qualquer das partes com apenas 90 dias de aviso.
- Goldman Sachs e Morgan Stanley lideram a operação, enquanto o roadshow começa a testar o apetite de investidores por uma avaliação de US$ 1,25 trilhão — território nunca antes alcançado em uma abertura de capital.
A SpaceX está prestes a realizar uma das maiores aberturas de capital da história da tecnologia. Documentos protocolados e obtidos pela CNBC revelam que a empresa reservará até 5% das ações emitidas para funcionários e pessoas selecionadas pela liderança, antes que os papéis comecem a ser negociados no Nasdaq em 12 de junho. O IPO tem como meta captar US$ 75 bilhões, refletindo uma avaliação de US$ 1,25 trilhão estabelecida após a fusão da SpaceX com a xAI, startup de inteligência artificial de Elon Musk.
O que distingue esse programa de distribuição é a ausência de restrições de lock-up — os acordos contratuais que normalmente impedem insiders de vender ações por um período determinado após o IPO. Ao dispensar essa salvaguarda tradicional, a SpaceX oferece liquidez imediata aos participantes escolhidos, um privilégio raro em grandes ofertas públicas. A seleção fica inteiramente a critério do conselho e da diretoria, sem mecanismo transparente de qualificação. A estratégia não é inédita no universo de Musk: a Tesla adotou abordagem semelhante em seu IPO de 2010, assim como Uber, Airbnb e Rivian em suas próprias estreias.
O roadshow para investidores começa esta semana, com Goldman Sachs coordenando a operação geral e Morgan Stanley gerenciando especificamente o programa de ações para funcionários. O patamar almejado é inédito — apenas Facebook e Alibaba superaram US$ 100 bilhões de valor de mercado no primeiro dia de negociações em bolsas americanas.
O prospecto, porém, também expõe uma vulnerabilidade relevante. A SpaceX mantém um contrato com a Anthropic — startup de IA que é ao mesmo tempo cliente e concorrente — no valor de US$ 1,25 bilhão por mês até maio de 2029, referente ao aluguel de capacidade computacional equivalente a cerca de 325 mil GPUs da Nvidia em seus supercomputadores em Memphis. O problema está em uma cláusula discreta: após um período inicial de três meses, qualquer das partes pode encerrar o acordo com apenas 90 dias de aviso. Uma parceria que poderia somar dezenas de bilhões de dólares pode, portanto, ser dissolvida em menos de meio ano — uma incerteza que a SpaceX apresenta aos investidores justamente no momento em que pede sua maior aposta.
SpaceX is preparing for one of the largest public offerings in technology history, and in the process, the company has revealed how it plans to distribute wealth among its inner circle before the market opens. According to updated filing documents obtained by CNBC, the aerospace manufacturer will reserve up to 5 percent of the shares it issues for employees and people selected by company executives. The initial public offering, scheduled for June 12 on the Nasdaq, is expected to raise $75 billion—a record-breaking sum that reflects the company's valuation of $1.25 trillion, set earlier this year after Elon Musk merged SpaceX with his artificial intelligence startup, xAI.
The mechanism is straightforward in concept but generous in execution. Employees, partners, and individuals chosen by leadership will be able to purchase stakes in the company before it officially begins trading on the secondary market. What sets this approach apart from typical offerings is the absence of lock-up restrictions—the standard contractual agreements that prevent insiders from selling their shares for a set period after an IPO. By sidestepping these traditional safeguards, SpaceX is giving its chosen participants immediate liquidity and flexibility, a privilege rarely extended in major public debuts. The selection process itself remains at the discretion of the company's board and executive team, meaning there is no transparent mechanism determining who qualifies.
This strategy is not new to Musk's business empire. Tesla employed a similar approach during its 2010 public offering, reserving more than 1.2 million shares for employees, associates, and owners of the Tesla Roadster. Other technology giants including Uber, Airbnb, and Rivian have adopted comparable programs during their own market debuts. The pattern suggests a deliberate philosophy: distribute ownership broadly among those closest to the company, creating a network of stakeholders with financial incentives aligned to its success.
The roadshow for potential investors is set to begin this week, with Goldman Sachs leading the overall operation and Morgan Stanley specifically managing the employee share program. Historically, the bar for success is high. Only two technology companies—Facebook and Alibaba—have achieved market valuations exceeding $100 billion on their first official day of trading on American exchanges. SpaceX's $1.25 trillion valuation suggests the company is aiming for territory that has never been reached before.
But the IPO filing also exposed something less celebratory: the volatile nature of SpaceX's relationship with Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup that functions simultaneously as a customer and competitor. The contract between the two companies, detailed in the prospectus, reveals a partnership of enormous scale but fragile stability. SpaceX is leasing computational capacity equivalent to approximately 325,000 Nvidia GPUs housed in its Colossus and Colossus II supercomputer facilities in Memphis. Anthropic has committed to paying SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, following an initial grace period and infrastructure adjustment phase.
Yet the agreement contains a clause that undercuts any sense of permanence. After an initial three-month period, either party can terminate the contract with just 90 days' notice. This means that a partnership worth $1.25 billion monthly—potentially totaling tens of billions of dollars over the contract term—can be dissolved in half a year. The inclusion of this provision in the IPO filing signals to investors that SpaceX's revenue from one of its largest customers is not guaranteed, a detail that complicates the financial picture the company is presenting as it seeks to raise $75 billion. The tension between the scale of the arrangement and its precariousness suggests that the relationship between SpaceX and Anthropic, despite their apparent alignment, remains fundamentally uncertain.
Notable Quotes
The agreement contains a clause allowing either party to terminate with 90 days' notice after an initial three-month period— SpaceX IPO prospectus filing
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does SpaceX need to reserve shares for employees if the company is already valued at $1.25 trillion? Shouldn't the market be eager to buy in?
The reservation isn't about scarcity—it's about loyalty. By giving insiders access before the public market opens, without the usual lock-up restrictions, SpaceX is essentially saying: we trust you, and we want you to benefit immediately. It's a way to cement commitment from people who built the company.
But doesn't that create a two-tier system? Some people get in early and can sell whenever they want, while public investors face the standard rules.
Absolutely. That's the point. It's a privilege reserved for the chosen few. The question is whether regulators or public shareholders will see it as fair, or whether it signals that SpaceX's leadership is prioritizing insiders over the broader market.
Let's talk about Anthropic. Why would SpaceX sign a contract that can be terminated in six months if it's worth $1.25 billion a month?
Because neither company is certain about the long-term relationship. Anthropic is a competitor in AI—they're not just a customer. SpaceX is providing infrastructure, but the arrangement could fall apart if priorities shift or if one side finds a better deal elsewhere. The short termination window protects both parties from being locked into something that might not work.
So the IPO filing is essentially saying: we have a huge revenue stream, but don't count on it?
Exactly. It's transparency, in a way. SpaceX is telling investors the truth—this contract is real, it's massive, but it's also fragile. That's the kind of detail that can move markets once people digest it.