The portfolio companies appreciated, signaling the Vision Funds strategy is working.
In the long arc of technology investing, few stories have swung as wildly as SoftBank's — from celebrated visionary to cautionary tale and back again. This week, the Japanese conglomerate posted a quarterly profit more than three times what analysts had anticipated, sending its shares to a record high and offering a quiet vindication to those who believed the Vision Funds' sprawling bets on the future would eventually find their footing. The result is less a single triumph than a signal: that the patient, if turbulent, wager on global technology may at last be settling into something that resembles wisdom.
- A profit of 421.8 billion yen — more than triple analyst expectations — arrived like a thunderclap, forcing Wall Street models to be rewritten in real time.
- Shares surged past 14,000 yen intraday before traders pulled back to lock in gains, capping a four-day winning streak that had already set a record close before earnings were even released.
- The Vision Funds segment, once a symbol of overreach, reversed prior-year losses with 451.4 billion yen in pretax profit, powered by rising valuations in Grab, Swiggy, and a $4.8 billion portfolio-wide gain — the largest quarterly jump since mid-2021.
- A pipeline of imminent IPOs — Lenskart, PayPay, Klarna, Klook — now stands as the next test: whether public markets will finally close the stubborn gap between what SoftBank holds and what investors are willing to pay for it.
SoftBank Group's stock surged more than 10% on Friday, closing at a record 13,865 yen after the company reported quarterly earnings that left analysts scrambling. For the three months ending in June, SoftBank posted a profit of 421.8 billion yen — roughly $2.87 billion — obliterating the consensus estimate of 127.6 billion yen by more than threefold. It was the company's second consecutive profitable quarter and a dramatic reversal from the same period a year earlier, when it had posted a loss of 174.28 billion yen.
The turnaround was driven almost entirely by the Vision Funds segment, which swung from losses to 451.4 billion yen in pretax profit. Rising share prices in listed holdings — including Singapore-based ride-hailing firm Grab and Indian food delivery company Swiggy — fueled the gains, alongside a $4.8 billion increase in total portfolio value, the largest quarterly jump since June 2021.
Nomura analyst Daisaku Masuno noted the Vision Funds had beaten his firm's forecast by 281 billion yen and maintained a buy rating with a price target of 14,120 yen. He pointed to SoftBank's deepening ties with chip designer Arm Holdings and its planned acquisition of semiconductor startup Ampere Computing as further catalysts that could help close the long-standing discount between the company's stock price and its net asset value.
Looking ahead, a string of portfolio IPOs — Indian eyewear retailer Lenskart, Japanese payments platform PayPay, Swedish fintech Klarna, and travel app Klook — are all expected to list in the near term. Each offering represents a potential moment of reckoning: a chance for SoftBank to prove that the Vision Funds strategy, once widely mocked as reckless, has produced returns durable enough to finally earn the market's full confidence.
SoftBank Group's stock climbed 10.39% on Friday, closing at 13,865 yen after the company reported earnings that left analysts scrambling to recalibrate their models. During the session, shares had touched 14,390 yen—a new intra-day high—before settling slightly lower as traders took profits. The rally extended a winning streak to four consecutive days, building on momentum that had already pushed the stock to a record close the day before earnings were even announced.
The numbers that drove the surge were stark. For the three months ending in June, SoftBank posted a profit of 421.8 billion yen, or roughly $2.87 billion. That figure obliterated the consensus estimate of 127.6 billion yen by more than threefold. The result marked the company's second straight profitable quarter and represented a dramatic turnaround from the same period last year, when SoftBank had posted a loss of 174.28 billion yen.
The engine behind this performance was the Vision Funds segment, which reported pretax profits of 451.4 billion yen in the quarter—a swing from losses in the prior year. The turnaround came from two sources: gains in private investments held by the funds, and appreciation in publicly traded holdings. Ride-hailing firm Grab, headquartered in Singapore, and Indian food delivery company Swiggy both contributed to the gains. Beyond these individual stock moves, SoftBank announced that the total value of its Vision Funds portfolio had risen by $4.8 billion, the largest quarterly jump since June 2021.
Analysts were quick to parse what had happened. Daisaku Masuno, a research analyst at Nomura, noted that the Vision Funds segment had beaten his firm's forecast by 281 billion yen, driven primarily by rising share prices in listed equities. Nomura maintained a buy rating on SoftBank with a price target of 14,120 yen, implying roughly 1.84% upside from Friday's close. Masuno also highlighted potential catalysts ahead: SoftBank's deepening collaboration with chip designer Arm Holdings, and the company's plans to acquire semiconductor design startup Ampere Computing. These moves, he suggested, could help narrow the persistent gap between SoftBank's stock price and its net asset value—a discount that has long frustrated investors.
The Vision Funds portfolio spans a diverse set of bets. Beyond Grab and Swiggy, it includes game software maker Animoca Brands and ByteDance, the Chinese internet technology giant. Several of these companies are preparing to go public. Lenskart, an Indian eyewear retailer, filed for an initial public offering on July 29, with fresh share issuance valued at 21.5 billion rupees, or about $247.58 million. PayPay, a Japanese mobile payment service, Klarna, a Swedish financial services firm, and Klook, a travel app, are all expected to list in the near term. Each IPO represents a potential unlock of value for SoftBank's portfolio and a chance to demonstrate to the market that the Vision Funds strategy—once derided as reckless—has produced real returns. The string of upcoming listings could be the catalyst that finally closes the gap between what SoftBank owns and what the market is willing to pay for it.
Citações Notáveis
We were particularly impressed by pretax profits at the SoftBank Vision Funds segment of 451.4 billion yen beating our forecast by 281.0 billion yen thanks to rises in share prices of listed equities.— Daisaku Masuno, Nomura research analyst
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
What made this quarter so different from the year before? SoftBank went from a massive loss to a massive profit.
The portfolio companies appreciated. Grab and Swiggy, which are already public, went up in value. That's the simplest explanation. But it also signals that the Vision Funds strategy is working—these aren't theoretical gains anymore.
So this is mostly about paper gains, not actual cash?
Mostly, yes. But paper gains matter in venture capital. They signal momentum, they attract more capital, and they give SoftBank the credibility to keep deploying. The real test comes when these companies actually go public.
You mentioned several IPOs coming. How much of SoftBank's future depends on those?
Quite a bit. Right now the market discounts SoftBank's holdings—it trades below net asset value. When Lenskart, PayPay, Klarna, and Klook list, investors will see real prices for real stakes. That could close the valuation gap.
And if those IPOs disappoint?
Then the narrative reverses. The stock would likely pull back. But for now, the momentum is real, and the pipeline is full.