Burnham gained where Labour bled everywhere else
In a single constituency in the north of England, Andy Burnham achieved what no national trend could predict: a Labour vote that grew rather than shrank, defying the gravitational pull of a governing party in decline. His victory in Makerfield was less a statement about Labour's health than a testament to what personal credibility and local trust can still accomplish in an age of institutional disillusionment. Yet the same night that produced this anomaly also delivered a Conservative record-breaker in Aberdeen and the first stirrings of a fracture on the populist right — reminders that political landscapes rarely shift in one direction alone.
- Labour nationally is polling at 19% and haemorrhaging support in by-elections, making Burnham's 10-point gain in Makerfield a statistical outlier that demands explanation.
- Four in five of Burnham's 2024 voters returned to him — a loyalty rate almost double the national average — while tactical voting collapsed the Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green vote to a combined 3%.
- Reform, which should have surged in a constituency two-thirds Leave, gained only three points — and a breakaway rival, Restore Britain, immediately claimed 7%, threatening to splinter the hard-right vote Farage has spent years assembling.
- Across the same night, the Conservatives recorded a post-war record swing in Aberdeen South by turning the vote into a referendum on net zero, signalling that energy policy is becoming a live political weapon.
- The cumulative picture is a political landscape in active fragmentation: Burnham's win is personal, not partisan, and the pressures now bearing down on Keir Starmer — from his own party, from the right, and from the energy debate — appear to be accelerating.
Andy Burnham entered the Makerfield by-election carrying something rare in British politics right now: a personal mandate strong enough to override the national mood. When the count concluded, Labour's vote share had risen ten points to 55% — a result that sits in almost surreal contrast to the party's broader collapse. In Runcorn last year, Labour fell 14 points. In Gorton & Denton, 25. In the May local elections held just six weeks earlier, Labour had trailed Reform by 20 points in Makerfield itself. Nationally, the party has been stuck at 19% since autumn with no sign of recovery.
Political scientist John Curtice identified two engines behind Burnham's success. The first was voter retention: four in five of those who backed Labour in 2024 returned, compared to barely half nationally. The second was tactical consolidation — the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens were squeezed to a combined 3%, with the Liberal Democrats recording their worst-ever by-election result at 0.4%. Voters came to Burnham for different reasons — some to block Reform, some to wound the prime minister, others simply persuaded by his record as Greater Manchester's mayor — but the coalition held.
For Nigel Farage, the night carried a particular discomfort. Makerfield, with two-thirds of its voters having backed Leave in 2016, should have been fertile ground. Instead, Reform gained only three points — a fraction of the 21-point surge it achieved in Runcorn. More troubling still was the debut of Restore Britain, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which took 7% of the vote on a platform to Farage's right on migration. The pro-Brexit vote that Farage has worked to unify now faces competition from within its own ideological family.
Elsewhere, the picture was starkly different. In Aberdeen South, the Conservatives framed the contest around net zero and were rewarded with a 25-point swing — a post-war by-election record and the party's first Scottish victory since 1967. Labour lost 19 points there and 18 in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry.
Burnham's achievement, remarkable as it is, belongs to him rather than to his party. But the Conservative breakthrough on energy policy and the fracturing of the Reform coalition suggest that the political ground beneath Westminster is moving — and that both a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer and a serious fight over energy policy may now be unavoidable.
Andy Burnham walked into the Makerfield by-election carrying something most Labour candidates cannot afford: momentum that defies the national mood. When the votes were counted, he had not merely held the ground Labour claimed in 2024—he had expanded it, pushing the party's share from 45% to 55%, a gain of ten points in a political climate where the governing party almost always bleeds support in these contests.
The scale of this achievement becomes clear only when set against the wreckage surrounding it. Last year, Labour's vote in Runcorn collapsed by 14 points. Four months earlier, in Gorton & Denton, it fell by 25. Locally, in the May elections just six weeks before the by-election, Labour trailed Reform by 20 points in Makerfield itself. The national picture was bleaker still: Labour had been stuck at 19% in the polls since autumn, with no visible recovery. Yet somehow, in this single constituency, the party moved in the opposite direction.
According to analysis by John Curtice, the political scientist at Strathclyde University, Burnham's victory rested on two distinct foundations. The first was his ability to retrieve voters who had drifted away. Polling during the campaign showed that four in five of those who voted Labour in 2024 returned to support him—a retention rate that stands in sharp contrast to the national picture, where only just over half of 2024 Labour voters say they intend to vote for the party again. The second was a dramatic squeeze on his opponents. The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens combined for just 3% of the vote, down 19 points from 2024. The Liberal Democrats achieved their worst-ever by-election result at 0.4%, while the Conservatives managed only 2.2%, barely above their all-time low of 1.9% in Gorton & Denton.
Why did voters make these choices? The motives were mixed. Some voted tactically to keep Reform out. Others hoped to damage the prime minister. Still others were simply persuaded by Burnham's personal standing and his record as mayor of Greater Manchester. The result was a coalition held together by circumstance rather than conviction—but it held.
For Nigel Farage, the outcome was a particular sting. Makerfield should have been Reform territory. Two-thirds of the constituency voted Leave in the 2016 referendum, and the party's support is concentrated precisely among that demographic. Yet Reform's vote rose by only three points, far below the 21-point surge it achieved in Runcorn or the 15-point gain in Gorton & Denton. Even more troubling for Farage was the emergence of Restore Britain, a breakaway party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which captured 7% of the vote and kept its deposit. Restore is campaigning for an even harder line on migration than Reform itself, and it currently polls at 3% nationally. The pro-Brexit, socially conservative vote that Farage has worked to consolidate now faces competition from his right.
The by-elections held elsewhere told a different story. In Aberdeen South, the Conservatives turned the ballot into a referendum on net zero policy, and voters responded with a 25-point swing to the party—a post-war record for a by-election gain and the Tories' first Scottish by-election victory since 1967. Labour, meanwhile, saw its vote fall by 19 points in Aberdeen South and 18 points in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry.
What emerges from the night is a fractured political landscape. Burnham's win, remarkable as it is, belongs to him alone—a personal achievement that tells us little about Labour's broader prospects. But the Conservative breakthrough in Aberdeen, built on energy policy, and the fragmentation of the Reform vote, suggest that the political ground is shifting in ways that could reshape Westminster for months to come. A challenge to Keir Starmer's position now seems inevitable. Equally, the government's energy policy may be about to face a serious political storm.
Citações Notáveis
Burnham's victory represents a remarkable personal success— John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Burnham's win matter if Labour is still at 19% nationally? Isn't this just one man's personal brand?
It matters precisely because it's so anomalous. In a normal by-election, the government loses ground. Labour lost 14 points in Runcorn, 25 in Gorton & Denton. Burnham gained 10. That tells you something about his ability to hold voters that the party has lost everywhere else.
But you said four-fifths of 2024 Labour voters came back to him. Doesn't that suggest they're still available to Labour if the party can find the right message?
Possibly. But nationally, only just over half of those same voters say they'll vote Labour again. So either Burnham is uniquely persuasive, or something about his local standing—his record as mayor, his visibility—is doing work that the national party cannot replicate.
What about Reform? They should have won this seat.
They should have. Two-thirds of Makerfield voted Leave. But Reform only gained three points, nowhere near what they achieved in other by-elections. And now Restore Britain is taking votes from their right flank. Farage is facing competition for the exact voters he's been trying to consolidate.
Is that good news for Labour?
In Makerfield, yes. But look at Aberdeen. The Conservatives just achieved their best by-election result in decades by making net zero a referendum. That's a different kind of threat entirely. The political ground is splintering in multiple directions at once.