The tankers are moving. Whether they keep moving depends on whether Trump signs.
Maritime data shows a surge in large tanker crossings by non-Iranian vessels through Hormuz, with over half of 27 recorded crossings occurring in May alone. US and Iran negotiators agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension framework, but Trump has not yet approved it and maintains strict conditions including uranium enrichment surrender.
- More than half of 27 large tanker transits recorded since February occurred in May 2026
- U.S. and Iran negotiators agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension framework on May 28
- 1,500 ships and 20,000 crew members remain trapped in Middle Eastern waters
- Iran created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on May 18 to collect transit fees
- U.S. Treasury sanctioned the authority and threatened penalties against nations paying tolls
Non-Iranian tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing as Tehran and Washington reach a framework agreement to extend their ceasefire and normalize passage, pending Trump's approval.
The waters of the Strait of Hormuz are moving again. Shipping analysts tracking maritime traffic report a visible uptick in large tankers flying non-Iranian flags making their way through one of the world's most critical chokepoints—the narrow passage through which one-fifth of global oil flows. The surge is happening now, in May, even as negotiators in Washington and Tehran have hammered out a framework agreement to extend their ceasefire and restore normal passage through the strait. But the deal remains unsigned. It waits for Donald Trump's approval, and Trump has not yet said yes.
The numbers tell the story of a market testing the waters. Since the conflict began on February 28, maritime analysts at Kpler have tracked 27 large tanker transits through the strait by non-Iranian operators. More than half occurred in May alone. Between May 20 and 26, five massive vessels departed the Gulf through the strait. The Eagle Veracruz, sailing under Singapore's flag, and two Chinese-flagged ships—the Eagle Verona and Yuan Gui Yang—declared China as their destination. The Universal Winner, flying South Korea's colors, headed toward Busan. The Nissos Keros, registered in the Marshall Islands, set course for India. These are not random movements. According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, China, South Korea, India, and Japan have coordinated with Iran's government to ensure safe passage. Analysts observed vessels bearing the flags of Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, and Norway transiting the Gulf in recent days.
The backdrop to this cautious resumption of commerce is a three-month conflict that has paralyzed the strait. When fighting erupted in late February, Iran blocked the passage almost immediately, choking off a vast portion of Gulf oil exports. The blockade has trapped roughly 1,500 ships and 20,000 crew members in Middle Eastern waters. Now, with a ceasefire in place since March and negotiations advancing, shipping is beginning to move again—but the situation remains fragile and contingent.
On May 18, Iran formalized the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a new body designed to manage navigation through Hormuz and collect transit fees. The move was immediately controversial. The United States opposes the authority outright. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against the PGSA and threatened similar penalties against any nation or entity that pays the tolls. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent escalated the pressure, warning Oman directly that the U.S. would "aggressively target" any actor—direct or indirect—involved in facilitating fees through the strait. The threat hangs over the shipping surge. If nations fear sanctions, the coordinated transits could dry up.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic negotiations remain in limbo. U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached agreement on a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, normalize transit through the strait, and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged the progress but made clear that Trump has not endorsed the deal. "We've made a lot of progress," Vance told reporters. "We're going back and forth on a couple of wording issues." He added that Trump would need to be in a position to support the agreement, but that outcome "is still to be determined." Treasury Secretary Bessent, speaking at a White House briefing, said the teams had been negotiating and that "perhaps we have the ingredients for a deal here," but he would not confirm an agreement existed.
Trump's conditions are clear and strict. Iran must surrender its enriched uranium reserves, commit to abandoning nuclear weapons development, and accept free transit through the strait. On Wednesday, during a cabinet meeting, Trump said he remained "not satisfied" with Iran's offers and warned he could "finish the job" militarily. The threat is not rhetorical. On Thursday, Iranian forces fired on four vessels attempting to cross the strait without authorization, according to Iran's state broadcaster IRIB. Both sides have accused each other of violating the existing ceasefire following an exchange of fire three months into the conflict.
What happens next depends on a single decision. The shipping surge reflects market confidence that a deal is coming. But that confidence is provisional. If Trump rejects the framework, the consequences could be swift: sanctions against transit partners, renewed Iranian blockade measures, and a return to the paralysis that has held the strait hostage for three months. For now, the tankers are moving. Whether they keep moving depends on whether Trump signs.
Notable Quotes
We've made a lot of progress. We're going back and forth on a couple of wording issues. With luck, we'll keep moving forward and the president will be in a position to support the agreement, but obviously that's still to be determined.— Vice President JD Vance
The Department of the U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actor involved—directly or indirectly—in facilitating tolls through the strait, and any possible partner will be sanctioned.— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that these specific ships are moving through the strait right now?
Because it signals that traders and shipping companies believe a deal is actually coming. They're positioning themselves, moving cargo, taking calculated risks. The market is voting with its vessels.
But the deal isn't done yet. Trump hasn't approved it.
Exactly. That's the tension. The shipping surge is real, but it's also fragile. It could evaporate if Trump says no. These captains are betting on a future that isn't guaranteed.
What's the significance of Iran creating this new authority to collect tolls?
It's Iran asserting control over the strait and trying to monetize it. But the U.S. immediately sanctioned the authority and threatened to punish anyone who pays. So Iran is claiming authority that the world's largest economy is forbidding others to recognize.
That seems like a recipe for conflict.
It is. The shipping surge could collapse if nations get scared of U.S. sanctions. And Iran has already shown it will fire on unauthorized vessels. The ceasefire is holding, but barely.
What does Trump actually want from Iran?
Uranium surrender, a nuclear weapons commitment, and free passage through the strait. Those are his red lines. He's made clear he's willing to go back to military action if the terms aren't met.
So the 1,500 ships and 20,000 crew members trapped in the region—they're waiting for Trump to decide?
Yes. Their fate, the global oil market, the entire regional balance—it all hinges on whether Trump approves a deal that his own negotiators have already reached.