Within weeks, we will reach the same tragic levels we saw in El-Fasher
Seven European nations have raised their voices in collective alarm over the encirclement of El-Obeid, a Sudanese city where the slow machinery of siege warfare is once again threatening to reduce civilian life to its barest margins. Since April 2023, Sudan's civil war between the Rapid Support Forces and the national army has displaced millions and starved entire cities into submission, and El-Obeid now stands at the edge of that same precipice. The appeal from Britain, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway is a reminder that the international community watches these catastrophes unfold in real time — and that watching, however attentive, is not the same as intervening.
- The RSF has encircled El-Obeid for months and credible intelligence points to a major offensive now in preparation, raising fears the city will follow El-Fasher into catastrophe.
- Inside the siege, food prices have surged 60 to 300 percent, a jerrycan of water costs the equivalent of $20, and daily drone strikes have knocked out fuel depots, power infrastructure, and supply convoys.
- Famine has already been officially declared in El-Fasher and Kadugli, with 20 additional areas across the region now at risk — and 130,000 people have fled Kordofan since El-Fasher fell last October.
- Humanitarian access routes into El-Obeid have closed entirely; aid organizations that once managed sporadic entry can no longer reach the city safely.
- Seven European governments issued a joint demand for an immediate halt to RSF military operations, while the UN warned of an imminent risk of mass atrocities — but warnings alone have not slowed the advance.
Seven European governments — Britain, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway — issued a joint statement this week calling for an immediate end to the fighting in Sudan, with particular urgency focused on El-Obeid, a strategic city in southern Kordofan that has been encircled by the Rapid Support Forces for months. Intelligence suggests a major RSF offensive is imminent, and the European nations declared the moment "critical."
El-Obeid is already living under the weight of the siege. Food prices have risen between 60 and 300 percent in two months. A 10-liter jerrycan of water costs roughly $20. Drone strikes hit fuel depots, the electrical grid, and supply trucks almost daily. Medical supplies are dwindling. Mohamed Refaat, Sudan's chief of mission for the International Organization for Migration, has watched humanitarian access collapse in real time — routes that were sporadically open are now too dangerous to use.
Refaat's warning draws directly from recent history. El-Fasher, a Darfur city that endured an 18-month siege before falling to the RSF last October, is now officially in famine — as is Kadugli, the South Kordofan capital. Twenty more areas face the same designation. More than 130,000 people have fled Kordofan since El-Fasher fell, joining millions already displaced across Sudan.
"If the siege is not lifted and unconditional humanitarian access is not allowed, within weeks we will reach the same tragic levels we saw in El-Fasher," Refaat said. The UN has echoed that alarm, warning of an imminent risk of mass atrocities. Whether El-Obeid can be spared depends on whether international pressure translates into open corridors and a genuine military stand-down — and time, as Refaat made plain, is almost gone.
Seven European governments stepped forward this week with an urgent plea: stop the fighting in Sudan now. Britain, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway issued a joint statement warning that the city of El-Obeid, a strategic hub in the southern Kordofan region, faces imminent catastrophe. The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group locked in conflict with Sudan's armed forces since April 2023, has encircled the city for months and is preparing what credible intelligence suggests will be a major offensive. The European nations called the moment "critical" and demanded immediate international action to shield civilians from what could unfold.
El-Obeid is not an abstract concern. It is a real place where real people are running out of time. A UN official stated this week that without urgent humanitarian access, the city has only weeks before it reaches the same catastrophic state as El-Fasher, a Darfur city that fell to the RSF last October after an 18-month siege defined by starvation and relentless bombardment. Mohamed Refaat, Sudan's chief of mission for the International Organization for Migration, has watched conditions deteriorate from the ground. Aid organizations, including his own, had managed sporadic access in recent months. That access has now stopped. The routes are too dangerous. The insecurity is too acute.
What life looks like inside the siege tells the story. A 10-liter jerrycan of water costs about 15,000 Sudanese pounds—roughly $20. Food prices have climbed between 60 and 300 percent in just two months, depending on what you're trying to buy. Medical supplies are running low. Power is failing. Drone strikes, occurring nearly every day, have targeted fuel depots, the main electrical facility, and trucks carrying food and fuel. The Sudanese Armed Forces has fought back, destroying significant RSF equipment according to government sources, but the fighting has done nothing to improve conditions for the people trapped inside.
Refaat's warning carries the weight of recent history. "If the siege is not lifted and if unconditional access for humanitarian aid is not allowed, within weeks, or at most one or two months, we will reach the same tragic levels we saw in El-Fasher," he said. El-Fasher's fall was not quick. It was slow, grinding, and marked by mass suffering. Famine has already been officially declared in El-Fasher and in Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan. Twenty additional areas across the region are now at risk of the same designation. Since El-Fasher fell, more than 130,000 people have fled the fighting in Kordofan, joining the millions already displaced across Sudan.
The European statement called on the RSF to halt military operations immediately. The UN has warned of a buildup of RSF forces and an "imminent risk of mass atrocities." But warnings, however urgent, have not stopped the advance. What happens next depends on whether the international pressure translates into action—whether humanitarian corridors can be opened, whether the military buildup can be reversed, whether El-Obeid can be spared the fate of El-Fasher. The clock is running. Refaat was clear about what failure looks like: "This could lead to famine due to the siege."
Citas Notables
If the siege is not lifted and if unconditional access for humanitarian aid is not allowed, within weeks, or at most one or two months, we will reach the same tragic levels we saw in El-Fasher.— Mohamed Refaat, Sudan chief of mission for the International Organization for Migration
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does El-Obeid matter so much that seven European nations felt compelled to speak up together?
It's strategic—a hub city in Kordofan that controls movement and resources. But more than that, it's a test case. El-Fasher fell last year after 18 months of siege. Everyone watched that unfold. El-Obeid is showing the same pattern, and the Europeans are essentially saying: we see what's happening, and we're not going to stay silent while it repeats.
The water costs $20 for 10 liters. That's not just expensive—that's a way of controlling a population.
Exactly. It's not accidental. When you encircle a city and cut off supply routes, prices don't just rise naturally. They spike because there's no competition, no alternatives, no way out. It becomes a tool. People have to choose between water and food. That's the mechanism of siege warfare.
Refaat mentions "weeks or at most one or two months" before famine. How certain is that timeline?
It's not a guess. He's drawing on what happened in El-Fasher. The UN has already declared famine there. He's saying: we've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends. The difference is that this time, there's still a window to prevent it—but that window is closing fast.
The drone strikes targeting fuel and food trucks—who's doing that?
The RSF. They're not just trying to take the city militarily. They're trying to starve it into submission. Every truck that doesn't arrive is another day people go hungry. It's siege warfare in its most deliberate form.
What does "unconditional access for humanitarian aid" actually mean in practice?
It means aid workers can move in and out without being stopped, searched, or taxed by armed groups. It means food and medicine reach people without being diverted or sold on black markets. Right now, that's not happening. The insecurity is too high, and the armed groups control the territory. Without that access, you can't prevent famine—you can only watch it happen.