Why not 100 percent? We asked ourselves that question.
Petrobras currently supplies 75% of Brazil's diesel and plans to reach 100% self-sufficiency by 2030, up from previous 85% target, driven by energy security concerns. São Paulo refineries, particularly Replan, will receive R$17 billion of the R$37 billion investment package to increase diesel S10 production by 63,000 barrels daily.
- Petrobras currently supplies 75% of Brazil's diesel; targeting 100% by 2030
- R$37 billion investment in São Paulo through 2030; R$17 billion for refining alone
- Replan refinery processes 434,000 barrels per day; supplies 30% of Brazil's fuel
- Investment expected to increase diesel S10 production by 63,000 barrels daily
- Project projected to generate 38,000 direct and indirect jobs through 2030
Petrobras president Magda Chambriard announced R$37 billion in São Paulo investments through 2030, committing to achieve 100% diesel self-sufficiency by expanding refining capacity from current 75% domestic supply.
Magda Chambriard stood in Paulínia on a Monday afternoon in May and made a promise that reframed Brazil's energy future. The president of Petrobras announced that her company would pour R$37 billion into São Paulo over the next four years—and in doing so, commit the nation to complete diesel self-sufficiency by 2030.
It was a deliberate escalation. Petrobras had already planned to increase its share of domestic diesel supply from the current 75 percent to 85 percent by the end of the decade. But Chambriard's language shifted the conversation. "We asked ourselves: why not 100 percent?" she said. The answer lay in the world outside Brazil's borders—a landscape of geopolitical fracture. With the United States and Iran locked in conflict, energy security had become a central preoccupation for governments everywhere. Brazil, she argued, could not afford to remain dependent on imports for something as essential as diesel fuel. The investments announced that day were framed not as commercial opportunity but as national resilience.
The money would flow primarily into refining capacity. Of the R$37 billion, R$17 billion would go directly to refineries, with R$6 billion earmarked for Replan, Petrobras's flagship facility in Paulínia. The remaining R$11 billion would be distributed among three other São Paulo refineries: Revap, RPBC, and Recap. This concentration of investment reflected São Paulo's outsized importance to the company's operations. The state's refineries account for half of Petrobras's total refining capacity and supply 40 percent of all fuel consumed in Brazil. Replan alone processes 434,000 barrels of crude oil per day and distributes refined products to roughly 30 percent of the country's territory—enough to fuel 80,000 buses and 380,000 cars daily. The facility generates 1 percent of Brazil's GDP and accounts for 18 percent of Petrobras's revenue.
The expansion would focus on diesel S10, the company's most valuable product. Chambriard projected that the investments would increase production of this grade by 63,000 barrels per day. But diesel was not the only target. Gasoline production would rise in tandem, she explained, because refining improvements that boost one fuel naturally improve the availability of others. Brazil currently imports gasoline and exports some as well; the new capacity would allow the country to better meet domestic demand while maintaining export flexibility.
Beyond the refineries, Petrobras planned to invest R$9 billion in exploration and production within São Paulo state. The company would develop the Sapinhoá and Mexilhão offshore fields and advance a newly discovered pre-sal reserve called Arã. Chambriard announced that Petrobras was already working to declare the commercial viability of Arã and connect its first producing well. Another R$3.3 billion would expand the company's presence at the Port of Santos, with new infrastructure for terminal operations, pier construction, and increased storage capacity.
The package also included a deliberate nod toward energy transition. Petrobras would build a solar facility to power Replan's internal operations and produce sustainable aviation fuel with up to 5 percent renewable content. In a particularly granular gesture, the company announced an R$18 million tender for waste-collection cooperatives to supply used cooking oil to the refinery, where it would be processed into sustainable aviation fuel. These projects signaled that Petrobras saw its future not as a simple expansion of fossil fuel production but as a more complex industrial transformation.
Chambriard emphasized that the entire package—exploration, refining, energy transition, natural gas, and social investment—would generate approximately 38,000 direct and indirect jobs in São Paulo through 2030. She closed her remarks with a statement of territorial commitment: São Paulo is Brazil's largest fuel-consuming market, and Petrobras had no intention of ceding ground there. The company's presence in the state was not negotiable. What remained to be seen was whether the investments would arrive on schedule and whether the diesel self-sufficiency target would hold as global energy markets continued to shift.
Citas Notables
We committed to President Lula that we will be self-sufficient in diesel by 2030 in this country.— Magda Chambriard, Petrobras president
São Paulo is Brazil's largest fuel-consuming market, and Petrobras has no intention of being absent from it.— Magda Chambriard, Petrobras president
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did Petrobras suddenly jump from an 85 percent target to 100 percent? That's a significant shift in ambition.
The geopolitical moment forced the question. When the U.S. and Iran escalated their conflict, energy security became urgent for every country. Brazil realized it couldn't afford to be dependent on diesel imports if global supply chains fractured. The company asked itself why it should accept any import dependency at all.
But 100 percent is a hard number. What if demand grows faster than refining capacity can expand?
That's the real risk. The investments are substantial—R$17 billion just for refining—but they're betting on a specific production increase of 63,000 barrels per day of diesel S10. If consumption outpaces that, the target becomes impossible.
Replan seems to be carrying most of the weight here. Is that wise, or is it too concentrated?
Replan is already the largest refinery in Brazil and generates 1 percent of the country's GDP. It has the infrastructure, the expertise, and the scale. But yes, putting R$6 billion into one facility means the entire strategy depends partly on that one plant executing flawlessly.
What about the renewable fuel components—the solar power, the used cooking oil? Do those feel like genuine transition or like window dressing?
They're real investments, but they're modest compared to the diesel expansion. R$18 million for cooking oil collection is meaningful for the cooperatives involved, but it's a rounding error in a R$37 billion package. The solar facility is similar—it powers Replan's operations, not the grid. These are genuine moves, but they're not the story. The story is diesel.
And the jobs number—38,000 direct and indirect positions. How confident should we be in that figure?
Job projections from major infrastructure investments are notoriously soft. They depend on actual execution, on whether suppliers and contractors hire as expected, on whether the work happens on schedule. It's a reasonable estimate, but it's also the kind of number that gets revised downward when projects face delays.