With eight third-placed teams going through, we've still got a chance
Both teams have lost their opening two matches and face a must-win scenario against each other on Friday to stay alive in the tournament. Senegal, Africa Cup of Nations winners, suffered a shock 3-1 loss to France and 3-2 defeat to Norway, while Iraq lost to both France and Norway.
- Senegal lost 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway; Iraq lost to both teams
- Both teams have zero points after two matches
- Eight third-placed teams across 12 groups will advance to the knockout stage
- Match takes place Friday at Toronto Stadium; group stage concludes Saturday
- Senegal's goalkeeper Edouard Mendy injured, unavailable for Iraq match
Senegal and Iraq face elimination after successive defeats and must win their final group match to have any chance of advancing as one of eight best third-placed teams.
In Toronto on Friday, two teams will meet with their World Cup dreams hanging by a thread. Senegal and Iraq have both stumbled through the opening rounds of Group I, and now they face each other in what amounts to a final exam—win or go home.
Senegal arrived at this tournament as a team with genuine ambition. They were the Africa Cup of Nations champions as recently as January, though that title has since been stripped from them amid financial disputes within the federation. Coach Pape Bouna Thiaw had insisted before their second match that administrative troubles were resolved, but the team's performance on the pitch told a different story. In their opener against France, they conceded three goals and managed only one in return, a deflating 3-1 loss that immediately complicated their path forward. Then came Monday's match against Norway, where defensive lapses proved costly. Erling Haaland, given the space he needed, punished them repeatedly. The final score was 3-2, and with it went any margin for error.
Iraq's journey has been similarly grim. Facing France and Norway—two sides that have already secured the top two spots in the group and advanced to the knockout round—they lost both matches decisively. A 3-0 defeat to France in Philadelphia on Monday left them in the same desperate position as their Friday opponent: zero points from two games, needing a victory to have any realistic chance of continuing.
The format offers them a sliver of hope. Eight third-placed teams across the twelve groups will advance to the last 32, meaning a single win could be enough. But it is a conditional hope. Even if one team beats the other on Friday, they will have to wait until late Saturday, when the final group matches conclude, to learn whether three points is sufficient. The anxiety will be real and prolonged.
Senegal's situation is complicated by injury. Edouard Mendy, their first-choice goalkeeper, was hurt during the Norway game and will not be available against Iraq. The team that won Africa's premier tournament just months ago now looks fragile, depleted by circumstance and undermined by their own mistakes. Yet Thiaw has not surrendered. He believes they can still beat Iraq. His counterpart, Graham Arnold, echoes that sentiment. "With eight third-placed teams going through, we've still got a chance," Arnold said after his team's loss in Philadelphia.
What happens on Friday will determine whether either of these teams gets to play again. A draw helps neither. A loss ends the tournament for whoever loses. The winner advances to the anxious wait, hoping their three points prove enough when the mathematics of the group stage finally settle on Saturday night.
Citas Notables
With eight third-placed teams going through, we've still got a chance— Graham Arnold, Iraq coach
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did Senegal come into this tournament with such high expectations?
They'd just won the Africa Cup of Nations in January. That's the continental championship. They had momentum, they had a recent trophy, and they'd famously beaten France at the 2002 World Cup. People thought they could do something special here.
And what went wrong?
They lost to France 3-1 in their first game, which was a shock. Then against Norway on Monday, they made defensive mistakes that Erling Haaland capitalized on. Lost 3-2. Two games, zero points. Now they're in a must-win situation.
Is Iraq in the same boat?
Exactly the same. Lost to France, lost to Norway. Zero points. Both teams have to beat each other on Friday or they're out.
But there's a way through, right? The eight best third-placed teams advance?
Yes, but it's conditional. Even if Senegal beats Iraq, they won't know until Saturday night whether three points is enough. They'll be waiting, watching other groups finish, hoping their result holds up.
That sounds agonizing.
It is. You win on Friday and then spend a day not knowing if you've actually survived. And Senegal is dealing with injuries too—their main goalkeeper got hurt and won't play.
So both coaches still believe?
They have to. Arnold said it plainly: with eight teams advancing, there's still a chance. It's thin, but it exists.