The outcome would signal something important about Bolsonaro's leverage
No início de 2021, o Congresso brasileiro se preparava para renovar sua liderança após o Supremo Tribunal Federal barrar a reeleição dos presidentes das duas casas, abrindo espaço para uma disputa que ia além de cargos institucionais. Na Câmara, a escolha entre Arthur Lira e Baleia Rossi tornava-se um termômetro da influência de Bolsonaro sobre o Legislativo; no Senado, o MDB buscava reconquistar um posto historicamente seu em meio a negociações internas complexas. O que estava em jogo não era apenas quem ocuparia as cadeiras mais altas do Congresso, mas que tipo de relação o Brasil construiria entre seus poderes nos anos seguintes.
- O STF bloqueou a reeleição de Rodrigo Maia e Davi Alcolumbre, desbloqueando uma corrida pelo poder que acumulava ambições represadas e rivalidades antigas.
- Bolsonaro apostou suas fichas em Arthur Lira, sinalizando que pretendia usar a presidência da Câmara como alavanca para consolidar sua base no centrão.
- Baleia Rossi tentava construir uma alternativa independente do governo, reunindo a esquerda e os críticos do presidente em torno de uma candidatura de resistência.
- No Senado, o MDB corria contra o tempo para unificar quatro candidatos internos e evitar repetir a derrota fragmentada de 2019, enquanto Rodrigo Pacheco avançava com o apoio da liderança vigente.
- O grupo Muda Senado pressionava por renovação, mas enfrentava a aritmética cruel de ter apenas metade dos votos necessários para eleger seu candidato.
- O PSD, sem candidato próprio, emergia como fiel da balança — capaz de definir o resultado no Senado sem precisar disputar o protagonismo.
No limiar de 2021, o Congresso brasileiro se via diante de uma renovação forçada: o Supremo Tribunal Federal havia impedido que Rodrigo Maia e Davi Alcolumbre se reelegessem para as presidências da Câmara e do Senado, respectivamente. A decisão abriu uma disputa que, na Câmara, tinha peso político imediato para o governo Bolsonaro.
O presidente escolheu apoiar Arthur Lira, deputado alagoano em seu terceiro mandato e líder do centrão — bloco que havia se aproximado do Palácio do Planalto à medida que o governo distribuía cargos e emendas parlamentares. Do outro lado, Baleia Rossi, presidente nacional do MDB e herdeiro político do bloco de Maia, apresentava-se como candidato independente do governo, buscando atrair votos da oposição. O resultado dessa disputa seria lido como um sinal claro: ou Bolsonaro havia consolidado sua influência sobre o Legislativo, ou a coalizão contrária ao presidente ainda tinha força suficiente para resistir.
No Senado, a dinâmica era diferente — mais uma questão de reposicionamento interno do que de confronto ideológico. O MDB tentava recuperar a presidência da casa unificando quatro possíveis candidatos: Eduardo Braga, negociador experiente; Eduardo Gomes, líder do governo no Congresso; Fernando Bezerra Coelho, com passagem por vários cargos executivos; e Simone Tebet, presidente da CCJ, que buscava compensar resistências internas cultivando apoio no PSD e na bancada feminina.
O principal adversário do MDB era Rodrigo Pacheco, senador mineiro do DEM em seu primeiro mandato, escolhido pelo próprio Alcolumbre como sucessor preferido. Enquanto isso, o movimento Muda Senado reunia nomes como Major Olímpio, Jorge Kajuru e Alessandro Vieira, mas enfrentava o obstáculo matemático de contar com apenas 21 votos garantidos num universo que exigia 41. O PSD, sem candidato próprio, observava tudo de camarote — e poderia, se quisesse, decidir o jogo.
Brazil's Congress was preparing to elect new leadership at the start of 2021, and the stakes were uneven across the two chambers. The Supreme Court had just blocked the sitting presidents of both houses from running again—Rodrigo Maia in the Chamber and Davi Alcolumbre in the Senate—which meant the institution would be roiled by competing ambitions and old grievances.
The Chamber race promised to be the more consequential one. After nearly two years of friction between his government and the legislative branch, President Jair Bolsonaro had settled on a preferred candidate: Arthur Lira, a congressman from Alagoas representing the centrist bloc known as the centrão. Lira was in his third term, had chaired the constitutional affairs committee, and led both his party and the broader centrist coalition that had grown closer to Bolsonaro after the president began distributing cabinet positions and legislative amendments to secure their support. Opposing him was Baleia Rossi, the national president of the MDB and a congressman from São Paulo who had been chosen to lead the bloc assembled by the outgoing Maia. Rossi, in his second term, was connected to former president Michel Temer and was the son of a former agriculture minister. He was marketing his candidacy as independent from the government, hoping to draw support from the left.
The outcome of this contest would signal something important about the relationship between Bolsonaro and Congress going forward. If Lira won, it would suggest the president had consolidated enough support to reshape the Chamber's leadership in his favor. If Rossi prevailed, it would mean the anti-Bolsonaro coalition still held enough votes to block the president's preferred choice.
The Senate race, by contrast, was largely a matter of internal positioning. The MDB was trying to reclaim the presidency, a post it had held through much of Brazil's recent history. To avoid the divisions that had cost them the election in 2019, the party had decided to field a single unified candidate. Their main challenger was Rodrigo Pacheco, a first-term senator from Minas Gerais who was the current president's preferred successor and had the backing of Alcolumbre, who planned to travel during the recess to promote Pacheco's candidacy. Pacheco was a vice president of his party, the DEM, and came from a family involved in highway transportation.
The MDB had four potential candidates in the running. Eduardo Braga, the party's Senate leader, had been in the chamber since 2011 and was known as a skilled negotiator. Eduardo Gomes, currently the government's leader in Congress, was in his first Senate term after three in the Chamber, though senators worried that his closeness to Bolsonaro's political operation might hurt him. Fernando Bezerra Coelho, the government's Senate leader, had been a federal and state deputy and a mayor before entering the Senate in 2014, and had served as integration minister under Dilma Rousseff. Simone Tebet, the chair of the constitutional affairs committee, was running again after stepping aside in 2019 to support Alcolumbre; she was seeking to offset resistance within her party by cultivating support from the PSD, the women's caucus, and independent senators.
A movement called Muda Senado—Change the Senate—was also preparing to field candidates, though it faced a steep climb. The group needed 41 votes to elect a president, but could only reliably count on about 21 members. Among those being discussed were Major Olímpio, a first-term senator who had broken with Bolsonaro and become one of his sharpest critics; Jorge Kajuru, a former journalist and television host who had become vocal about the Senate's lack of independence; Álvaro Dias, a former governor of Paraná who had withdrawn his candidacy on election day in 2019; Mara Gabrilli, a first-term senator with support from the women's caucus; Alessandro Vieira, a first-term senator and the main driver behind an inquiry into judicial conduct; and Lasier Martins, a senator since 2015who advocated for simplified impeachment procedures.
The PSD, meanwhile, had indicated it would not field its own candidate, making it a potential kingmaker. Some senators speculated that the party might position itself as a third option, with names like Antônio Anastasia or Otto Alencar, a former governor of Bahia, being mentioned as possibilities—though Anastasia was resisting the idea. The Senate election, in short, would be a complex negotiation among centrist and center-right forces, with the outcome largely predetermined by the balance of power within existing party structures.
Citas Notables
Bolsonaro prefers to see his ally Arthur Lira in the Chamber presidency role, representing the centrist bloc that has grown closer to the government after receiving cabinet positions and legislative amendments— O Tempo reporting
Baleia Rossi describes his candidacy as independent from the government in an attempt to attract leftist support— O Tempo reporting
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the Chamber race matter so much more than the Senate one?
Because the Chamber president can either work with Bolsonaro or against him. Lira would be a partner; Rossi would be a check. The Senate is just the MDB trying to get back what they lost, and Bolsonaro's already signaled he's fine with Pacheco. It's not about the presidency—it's about internal party math.
So Bolsonaro's already won the Senate fight?
Essentially, yes. Alcolumbre's backing Pacheco, the current president isn't running, and the MDB's divided among four candidates. They're splitting their own vote. The Muda Senado people are idealists without the numbers.
What's the centrão, and why does it matter that Lira leads it?
It's the center and center-right bloc—parties without deep ideology, willing to negotiate. They've moved toward Bolsonaro because he's giving them cabinet jobs and money for their districts. Lira leading them means he can deliver votes. That's why Bolsonaro wants him.
Is Rossi actually independent, or is that just marketing?
It's positioning. He's close to Temer, he's got Maia's backing, and he's trying to appeal to the left. But "independent" in Brazilian politics usually means "not currently aligned with the president." It's a real distinction, but it's also a sales pitch.
What happens if Lira loses?
Bolsonaro's leverage over the Chamber weakens significantly. He'd have to negotiate more, give away more. The Maia bloc would have real power to block his agenda. It's the difference between a cooperative legislature and an adversarial one.
And if Pacheco loses in the Senate?
That would be a genuine shock. It would mean the MDB somehow unified behind one candidate and the Muda Senado found a way to consolidate votes. But they're starting from 21 votes and need 41. The math is brutal.