How can Ukraine win? Obviously we need much more equipment.
As Russian missiles continued to fall on Ukrainian neighborhoods in the opening days of 2024, Poland's foreign minister traveled to Kyiv and returned with an urgent message for the West: the arithmetic of this war is shifting, and silence is a form of complicity. The deaths of civilians in Kyiv and Kharkiv, answered by Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod, reveal a conflict deepening into mutual attrition — one that Warsaw argues only long-range weapons and tighter sanctions can rebalance. In the larger human story, this moment asks an old question in a new register: how long can a smaller nation absorb punishment before its allies decide that restraint is no longer a virtue?
- Russia launched nearly 300 missiles and 200 drones at Ukraine since Friday, killing five and wounding over 130 in Tuesday's strikes on residential areas of Kyiv and Kharkiv.
- Ukraine struck back at the Russian city of Belgorod, killing 25 people including five children — the deadliest attack on Russian soil since the invasion began — triggering Putin's vow of escalating retaliation.
- Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski, making Ukraine his first official visit, is pressing NATO allies to supply long-range missiles so Kyiv can hit Russian launch sites rather than simply absorb the blows.
- A former professional tennis player now serving as a Ukrainian soldier put the resource gap starkly: Russia has passed a $100 billion defense budget, and Ukraine cannot win on willpower alone.
- The war has entered a grinding attrition phase where both sides strike civilian-adjacent targets and deny it — and where the side with deeper pockets holds a structural advantage that Western support alone could offset.
On Tuesday, Russian missiles tore through residential neighborhoods in Kyiv and Kharkiv, killing five and wounding more than 130 — part of a sustained campaign that had unleashed nearly 300 missiles and over 200 drones across Ukraine since Friday alone. By Wednesday, Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski was already demanding a Western response, one he said should be delivered in language Moscow would understand.
Sikorski, newly appointed as part of Poland's pro-EU government, made Ukraine his first official visit abroad. From Warsaw, he called on NATO allies to provide long-range missiles capable of reaching Russian launch sites and command centers, and pushed for tighter sanctions to cut off the smuggled components fueling Moscow's weapons production. Poland has positioned itself as Ukraine's most steadfast European ally, and Sikorski's demand reflected a hardening conviction: the West must escalate its support or watch Ukraine ground down by attrition.
The timing was not accidental. Days earlier, Ukrainian forces had struck Belgorod — a Russian city of 340,000 people roughly 100 kilometers from Kharkiv — killing 25 people including five children, the deadliest attack on Russian soil since the invasion began. Putin vowed retaliation. By Tuesday, he was delivering it. For Ukraine, striking Belgorod served a dual purpose: disrupting Russian military operations and demonstrating, symbolically, that Kyiv could still hit back despite being outgunned.
The cycle ground on. Russia struck Ukrainian cities; Ukraine struck Russian border regions; both sides accused the other of targeting civilians. Amid it all, a former professional tennis player — once ranked 13th in the world before injury ended his career — was now a Ukrainian soldier awaiting redeployment after months at the front. His assessment was unsparing: Russia had just passed a $100 billion defense budget. 'How can Ukraine win?' he asked. 'Obviously we need much more equipment.'
That was precisely Sikorski's argument. Long-range missiles were not a luxury but a strategic necessity — the only way to degrade Russian strike capability rather than simply absorb it. As 2024 began, the war had entered a phase where attrition favored the side with deeper resources, and Poland was betting the West would recognize this before the window closed.
On Tuesday, Russian missiles tore through residential neighborhoods in Kyiv and Kharkiv, killing five people and wounding more than 130 others. The barrage was part of a sustained campaign: since Friday alone, Russia had unleashed nearly 300 missiles and over 200 drones across Ukrainian territory. By Wednesday morning, Poland's foreign minister Radosław Sikorski was already calling for a Western response—one delivered, he said, in language Moscow would understand.
Sikorski, appointed to his post in December as part of Poland's new pro-EU government, made Ukraine his first official visit abroad. Now, from Warsaw, he was pushing NATO allies to send long-range missiles that would allow Kyiv to strike Russian launch sites and command centers directly. He also demanded tighter Western sanctions to prevent Moscow from acquiring smuggled components for weapons production. Poland has positioned itself as Ukraine's most steadfast ally in Europe, and Sikorski's call reflected a hardening consensus among Warsaw's leadership: the West needed to escalate its military support or watch Ukraine slowly ground down by attrition.
The timing of his demand was not coincidental. Putin had promised retaliation just hours earlier, after Ukrainian forces struck the Russian city of Belgorod on Saturday, killing 25 people including five children—the deadliest attack on Russian soil since the invasion began. The Russian president, speaking on Monday, said Ukraine was trying to "intimidate us and create uncertainty." He vowed to step up strikes. By Tuesday, he was making good on that promise. Ukrainian officials rarely acknowledge responsibility for attacks on Russian territory, but the pattern was unmistakable: as Russia pummeled Ukrainian cities, Kyiv's forces were hitting back across the border with whatever weapons they had.
Belgorod, a city of roughly 340,000 people about 100 kilometers north of Kharkiv, had become the focal point of this escalation. It was close enough to reach with relatively simple weapons—multiple rocket launchers, Tochka-U ballistic missiles, drones launched from forests where they were hard to detect. For Ukraine, striking Belgorod served a dual purpose: it disrupted Russian military operations and, more symbolically, it demonstrated that despite being outgunned and outnumbered, Kyiv could still strike back. The psychological effect was real. Russian military bloggers expressed frustration about Russia's withdrawal from border areas in September 2022, and some argued that Moscow needed to seize more Ukrainian territory to secure Belgorod itself.
On Wednesday morning, Ukraine launched another volley at Belgorod—six Tochka-U missiles and six Vilkha rockets, according to Russian military claims, plus several drones. The regional governor said the situation "remains tense" but reported no immediate casualties. The cycle continued: Russia strikes Ukrainian cities, Ukraine strikes Russian border regions, and both sides accuse the other of targeting civilians. Moscow insisted it only aimed at military facilities; Kyiv called Russian strikes "utterly premeditated terror."
Meanwhile, the broader question of Western military support hung over everything. Alexandr Dolgopolov, a former tennis player who had reached 13th in the world before a wrist injury ended his career, was now a Ukrainian soldier awaiting redeployment after months on the frontline. He had joined up in 2022 after watching invasion footage from Turkey, where he had taken his mother and sister to safety. When asked about Ukraine's chances, Dolgopolov was blunt: Russia had just passed a $100 billion defense budget for the next three years. "How can Ukraine win?" he asked. "Obviously we need much more equipment."
That was the argument Sikorski was making too. Long-range missiles were not a luxury—they were a necessity if Ukraine was to have any chance of degrading Russian strike capability rather than simply absorbing blow after blow. As the new year began, the war had entered a grinding phase where attrition favored the side with deeper resources. Poland was betting that the West would recognize this before it was too late.
Citações Notáveis
The enemy has planned their trajectories to cause as much damage as possible. This is an utterly premeditated terror.— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on Tuesday's Russian strikes
They want to intimidate us and create uncertainty within our country. I also feel a simmering anger.— Russian President Vladimir Putin, responding to Belgorod attacks
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why is Poland's foreign minister making this call now, specifically?
Because Tuesday's strikes killed five civilians and wounded over 130 more. That's the kind of casualty toll that forces political leaders to act. Sikorski is new to the job—appointed in December—and he's signaling that Poland's government is serious about Ukraine. It's also a way of saying the current level of Western support isn't working.
But long-range missiles are a big step. Why does Sikorski think the West is ready for that?
He doesn't necessarily think they are. He's trying to make them ready. By framing it as the only language Putin understands, he's arguing that half-measures have failed. Russia just launched 300 missiles in a week. You can't defend against that indefinitely without the ability to hit back at the source.
What's actually happening on the ground between the strikes?
Ukraine is hitting Belgorod, a Russian border city. They're using whatever they have—older Soviet-era missiles, drones, rocket launchers. It's working in the sense that it's unsettling Russian civilians and military observers. But it's also limited. They need better weapons to do real damage to Russian command infrastructure.
Is there a risk this escalates into something larger?
That's the unspoken tension. Putin said the Belgorod attacks "will not go unpunished." He's already stepping up strikes on Ukrainian cities. Both sides are in a cycle of retaliation. Long-range missiles would intensify that cycle, but Sikorski's argument is that Ukraine is already losing the attrition war without them.
What about the people caught in the middle?
They're absorbing the cost. Five dead on Tuesday, 130 wounded. Twenty-five killed in Belgorod on Saturday, including five children. These are residential areas being hit. The war is grinding on, and civilians are paying the price while politicians debate whether to send better weapons.