Europe will never be a neutral mediator—we are on Ukraine's side
From Brussels to Nicosia, Europe's foreign ministers gathered this week to take stock of a war that has entered a new phase — one in which Russia, despite its continued strikes on Ukrainian cities, finds itself increasingly isolated on the battlefield, in the markets, and among nations. The EU's foreign policy chief declared plainly that Russia is on the back foot, and that Europe's role is not that of a neutral arbiter but of a committed partner to Ukraine's sovereignty. What is being shaped now is not merely a response to war, but a long-term architecture of pressure, solidarity, and consequence.
- Russia continues to strike Kyiv even as EU officials declare its military, economic, and diplomatic positions are eroding — the violence persists precisely because the pressure is working.
- EU ministers set non-negotiable preconditions for any talks: an unconditional ceasefire, an end to sabotage and cyber-attacks, no recognition of seized territory, and limits on Russia's future military capacity.
- Europe is preparing to tighten economic leverage, warning that countries trading with Moscow while benefiting from EU market access will face rising costs through new sanctions and investment restrictions.
- Ukraine signed a major defence deal with Sweden for up to twenty Gripen jets, while Zelenskyy pressed Washington for more air defence missiles, signalling that military readiness remains the immediate priority.
- Latvia's government collapsed and was replaced after a dispute over Ukrainian drones straying into its airspace, exposing the fragile politics of Baltic security even among Ukraine's closest allies.
- Russia's foreign ministry issued unsubstantiated claims of drone attacks from European soil, continuing a pattern of manufactured grievance designed to reframe Western resolve as aggression.
On Thursday in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas delivered a pointed assessment after informal ministerial talks in Cyprus: Russia is losing — not only on the battlefield, but economically and diplomatically. Despite ongoing strikes on Kyiv that underscored Moscow's indifference to peace, Kallas argued the military balance is shifting in Ukraine's favour. She was equally clear about Europe's posture: the EU would not play neutral mediator. It stands with Ukraine, and in doing so, defends its own security.
The ministers agreed on a set of floor demands before any negotiations could begin — an unconditional ceasefire, a halt to Russian sabotage, cyber-attacks, election interference, and airspace violations, and no legal recognition of occupied territory. These were not opening bids. They were conditions.
Kallas also signalled that Europe would use its economic weight more aggressively. Countries continuing to do business with Moscow while enjoying EU market access would face consequences. A new sanctions package was already being prepared. The message: the price of proximity to Russia would rise.
Ukraine, meanwhile, signed a defence agreement with Sweden covering up to twenty Gripen fighter jets, while President Zelenskyy pressed the United States for additional air defence missiles — a reminder that weapons, not words, remain the immediate currency of this conflict.
On Europe's eastern edge, Latvia's parliament approved a new centre-right government after the previous coalition collapsed over how to handle Ukrainian drones that had drifted into Latvian airspace from Russian territory. The episode revealed the political fragility even among Ukraine's firmest supporters. The incoming prime minister pledged to prioritise security, borders, and energy ahead of October elections.
In Bulgaria, the newly installed prime minister visited Brussels to signal commitment to reform, with the European Commission noting progress toward unlocking nearly €370 million in suspended EU funds. Bulgaria's position on NATO's eastern flank has made it an increasingly significant piece of European defence architecture.
Russia's foreign ministry, meanwhile, issued claims — unsupported by evidence — that drone attacks on Russian soil were being launched from European countries, even as defence ministers from Spain and the UK reported GPS jamming disturbances they attributed to Russian interference. The pattern was familiar: manufacture a grievance, deny the provocation, and keep the narrative of Western aggression alive.
In Brussels on Thursday, the European Union's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas delivered a blunt assessment of the war in Ukraine: Russia is losing ground. Not just militarily, but economically and diplomatically as well. The statement came after an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Cyprus, where the bloc's leadership spent hours discussing what leverage Europe should bring to any future negotiations with Moscow.
Kallas was unsparing in her diagnosis. Russia continues to strike Kyiv with no apparent interest in genuine peace, she said. The latest attacks on the Ukrainian capital had underscored that reality. Yet despite these ongoing assaults, the military balance itself has begun to shift. Ukraine, by contrast, is moving in the other direction—gaining ground, consolidating its position, preparing for a longer fight. The EU, Kallas made clear, would not pretend neutrality. "Europe will never be a neutral mediator between Russia and Ukraine, because we are on Ukraine's side, and we are defending our own core security interests."
The ministers had hammered out a set of conditions that would need to be met before any serious talks could begin. An unconditional ceasefire would have to come first. Russia would need to halt its sabotage operations, its cyber-attacks, its interference in European elections, its violations of European airspace. There could be no recognition—legal or otherwise—of the territory Russia has seized. And there would have to be limits placed on Russia's military capacity going forward. These were not negotiating positions meant to be softened; they were floor demands.
But Kallas also signaled that Europe intended to tighten the economic screws. Too many countries, she said, continue to do business with Moscow while enjoying the benefits of access to European markets and investment. That arrangement would have to change. The EU would use its economic leverage more effectively—through trade policy, investment restrictions, and market access. A new round of sanctions was already in preparation. The message was clear: the cost of doing business with Russia would rise.
Meanwhile, Ukraine was moving ahead with its own military preparations. The country had just signed a major defence agreement with Sweden that would allow it to purchase up to twenty Gripen fighter jets. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, remained focused on the immediate need: air defence. He pressed the United States for more air defence missiles, arguing that at this stage of the conflict, diplomacy alone could not stop Russia. The weapons were what mattered.
Elsewhere in Europe, political transitions were underway. Latvia's parliament approved a new government led by centre-right lawmaker Andris Kulbergs after the previous administration collapsed two weeks earlier over disputes about how to handle Ukrainian drones that had strayed into Latvian airspace from Russian territory. The incident had exposed tensions within the government and raised broader questions about Baltic security. Kulbergs told parliament that the new four-party coalition would prioritize security, borders, the economy, and energy. An election was already scheduled for October, and he acknowledged that voters would be the ultimate judges of his government's performance.
In Bulgaria, newly installed Prime Minister Rumen Radev was making the rounds in Brussels, meeting with NATO leadership and the European Commission. He emphasized his government's commitment to reform and stability after years of political turmoil. The commission's president, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that Bulgaria had made progress toward unlocking nearly €370 million in suspended EU funding, with more available if reforms continued. Bulgaria's role in European defence against Russian pressure was also discussed—the country sits on NATO's eastern flank and has become increasingly important to European energy security.
Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry was issuing denials and accusations. A spokesperson claimed, without evidence, that drone attacks on Russian territory from European countries were increasing. The claim fit a pattern of pressure Moscow had been applying to the Baltic states in recent weeks. Earlier, the same official had dismissed allegations of GPS jamming in Europe, demanding proof even as defence ministers from Spain and the UK had reported experiencing such disturbances. The rhetoric served a purpose: to create a narrative of Western aggression and justify further Russian actions.
Citas Notables
Russia is on the back foot, militarily, economically, but also diplomatically, but as the latest strikes on Kyiv have shown, Russia still shows no genuine interest in peace— Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Europe will never be a neutral mediator between Russia and Ukraine, because we are on Ukraine's side, and we are defending our own core security interests— Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Kallas keep saying Russia is on the back foot if it's still striking Kyiv?
Because military position and political will are different things. Russia may be losing territory and resources, but it's still capable of inflicting pain. The EU is reading the longer trajectory—that Ukraine is consolidating, that Russia's economy is under strain, that the diplomatic isolation is real. The strikes on Kyiv are almost a sign of desperation, not strength.
So the EU is saying it won't negotiate until Russia stops everything—the cyber-attacks, the election interference, all of it?
That's the floor they've set. An unconditional ceasefire first, then those conditions. It's a way of saying: we're not going to pretend this is a normal dispute that can be split down the middle. Russia has to fundamentally change its behavior before we even sit down.
What's the point of threatening more sanctions if countries keep trading with Moscow anyway?
That's the tension Kallas is naming. The EU has leverage—market access, investment—but it's not using it fully. Some countries want the trade. So she's saying Europe needs to get serious about enforcing consequences for countries that want both: Russian business and European benefits. It's a credibility problem.
Why does Latvia's government collapse matter in this story?
It shows how the war is destabilizing Europe itself. A government fell over a procedural dispute about drones. That's how tense things are on the eastern edge of NATO. The new government has to prove it can handle security while also governing. It's a microcosm of the pressure the whole continent is under.
Is the EU actually preparing to negotiate with Russia, or is this all posturing?
The ministers spent hours discussing what they'd ask for if negotiations happened. That's preparation. But Kallas is also saying Europe won't be a neutral mediator—it's on Ukraine's side. So any negotiation would be from a position of supporting Ukraine's demands, not splitting differences. It's negotiation with conditions, not negotiation as compromise.