We're very close, but I can't guarantee we'll get there
In the long human struggle to contain the fires of war before they consume what remains of order, Washington and Tehran have arrived at the edge of an agreement — one that would quiet a conflict begun in late February, reopen a waterway through which a fifth of the world's energy flows, and test whether diplomacy can hold where weapons have not yet fallen silent. Pakistan has served as the quiet bridge between two powers unwilling to speak directly, and the terms are largely settled, yet the final word belongs to a president who has not yet given it. The world watches a deal that is almost made, in a region where almost is never quite enough.
- A war that began February 28 has killed thousands and fractured regional stability, making every day without a formal end to hostilities another day of compounding human cost.
- Even as diplomats negotiate, American forces are shooting down Iranian drones, Kuwait is intercepting ballistic missiles, and the Revolutionary Guards are issuing warnings of 'more decisive' retaliation — the ceasefire is holding by a thread.
- Iran has accepted the preliminary terms, oil markets are already reacting to the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, yet Trump has not signed off, and VP Vance can only say 'we're very close' without guaranteeing an outcome.
- Israel's continued strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon threaten to unravel the broader framework, as Iran insists any final deal must include a halt to those attacks.
- The deal is assembled but unsigned, the guns are quiet but loaded, and the next few days will determine whether this moment of nearness becomes peace or dissolves back into open conflict.
Marco Rubio met with Pakistan's foreign minister Ishaq Dar in Washington on a Friday — a meeting delayed by one day and freighted with significance. Pakistan had spent months serving as the discreet intermediary in indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, and the encounter was meant to signal that something consequential was close.
By late May, the shape of a deal had emerged. The United States and Iran had reached a preliminary understanding to extend their April ceasefire by sixty days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping, lift the American blockade on Iranian ports, and ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The economic stakes were immense — roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas moves through that strait, and oil prices had already begun to soften on the mere rumor of its reopening.
Yet the agreement remained unsigned. Iran had signaled acceptance; Trump had not. Vice President Vance told reporters the two sides were 'very close' while stopping short of any guarantee. Iranian state media, reflecting the Revolutionary Guards' cautious public posture, said the text had not been 'finalized or confirmed.' The familiar choreography of high-stakes diplomacy — American confidence, Iranian restraint — played out even as the underlying terms appeared settled.
The war that made these talks necessary had begun February 28 and already claimed thousands of lives. The ceasefire had held for nearly two months, but the military situation remained volatile. American forces shot down five Iranian drones and struck a control station in Bandar Abbas. Kuwait intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at its territory. The Revolutionary Guards claimed retaliation and warned of worse to come. An American official described these operations as defensive — measures to preserve the ceasefire, not break it.
Complicating the picture further, Israel continued striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, hitting infrastructure in Tyre and carrying out a Beirut bombing that killed a Lebanese soldier. Iran had made clear that any final settlement must include a halt to those strikes, tying the US-Iran track to a separate and equally volatile conflict.
There was also a quieter concern: American officials had warned Oman not to participate in any Iranian plan to impose tolls on Hormuz shipping. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Oman's ambassador had offered assurances, though the sultanate and Iran had been in active conversation about the waterway. Small details, in diplomacy, have a way of becoming large obstacles.
Rubio's meeting with Dar thus captured the precise texture of this moment — a deal largely written, terms largely agreed, but the final word unspoken, and the guns not yet put away.
Marco Rubio sat down with Pakistan's foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, on a Friday in Washington while the Trump administration weighed whether to sign off on a ceasefire extension with Iran. The timing was not accidental. Pakistan had positioned itself as the quiet intermediary in months of indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, and this meeting—originally scheduled for Thursday but pushed back a day—was meant to signal that something significant was moving.
By late May, the outlines of a deal had begun to crystallize. According to reporting from multiple sources, the United States and Iran had reached a preliminary understanding that would extend the ceasefire that had held since early April for another sixty days. The agreement, if finalized, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted maritime traffic, lift the American blockade on Iranian ports, and ease some of the sanctions that had strangled Iranian oil exports. About one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows through that strait, so the economic stakes were enormous. Oil prices had already begun to fall on the mere prospect of the waterway reopening.
But the deal remained unsigned. Iran had signaled its acceptance of the negotiated terms, but President Trump had not yet given his approval. Vice President JD Vance, speaking to reporters in Washington, acknowledged the progress without guaranteeing an outcome. "We're very close," he said, "but I can't guarantee we'll get there." The Iranian state media outlet Tasnim, which reflects the views of the Revolutionary Guards, took a more cautious public line, saying the text "still hasn't been finalized or confirmed." The American side had been projecting confidence since the previous weekend, while Tehran had deliberately dampened expectations—a familiar dance in high-stakes diplomacy.
The war that had prompted these negotiations had begun on February 28 and had already claimed thousands of lives. The conflict had roiled global energy markets and left the region fractured. Now, with a ceasefire in place for nearly two months and talks advancing, there was a genuine possibility that the fighting could be formally wound down. Yet the military situation remained volatile. Over the previous hours, the American military had shot down five Iranian attack drones and struck a control station in Bandar Abbas from which another drone was allegedly being prepared for launch. Kuwait, which hosts a major American military base, had intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at its territory. An American official, speaking anonymously, characterized these operations as defensive measures meant to preserve the ceasefire itself.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards responded with defiance, claiming they had struck the American base connected to the Bandar Abbas operation and warning that any further action would provoke a "more decisive response." Kuwait condemned the missile launch and demanded that Iran cease what it called a "serious escalation." The military posturing continued even as diplomats negotiated.
Complicated matters further was the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran had made clear that any final agreement would have to include a halt to Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory. On Thursday, Israel had attacked Hezbollah infrastructure in the city of Tyre and carried out a bombing in Beirut that killed at least one Lebanese soldier. The regional picture was thus one of simultaneous de-escalation and escalation—talks advancing while guns remained hot.
There was also the matter of Oman. The United States had warned the sultanate not to participate in any Iranian scheme to impose tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. American Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Omani ambassador had assured him no such plan existed, though Oman and Iran had been in conversation about freedom of navigation in the waterway. It was the kind of detail that could derail a larger agreement if left unresolved.
Rubio's meeting with Dar was thus a moment of genuine uncertainty. The preliminary agreement existed. The terms had been negotiated. But the final word had not been spoken, and the military situation remained unpredictable. What happened in the coming days would determine whether the ceasefire became permanent or whether the region slipped back into open conflict.
Citações Notáveis
We're very close and we're going to keep working. I can't guarantee we'll get there, but right now I feel pretty good about it.— Vice President JD Vance
The text still hasn't been finalized or confirmed.— Iranian state media outlet Tasnim
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Pakistan matter so much here? They're not a party to the conflict.
They're the trusted intermediary. When the US and Iran can't talk directly, they need someone both sides believe won't betray them. Pakistan has that standing in Tehran.
So the deal is basically done, then?
Not quite. The terms are agreed—Iran said yes, the Americans have a framework. But Trump hasn't signed off. That's the missing piece.
What's he waiting for?
That's unclear. Vance said they're close but wouldn't guarantee it. Trump may want more, or he may be testing whether Iran will hold firm, or he may simply be letting the moment settle before committing.
But meanwhile, people are still shooting at each other.
Exactly. The ceasefire is holding, but barely. Drones are being shot down, missiles are being intercepted. Both sides are testing the boundaries while the diplomats talk.
And Israel is fighting Hezbollah. How does that fit?
Iran won't sign anything that leaves Israel free to bomb Lebanon. So the Israeli-Hezbollah war becomes leverage in the US-Iran talks. Everything is connected.
What happens if Trump says no?
The ceasefire collapses. The strait closes again. Oil prices spike. The region goes back to war. That's why everyone is watching this so carefully.