That's just not acceptable. It can't happen.
Three months into a war neither side has fully committed to ending, the United States and Iran find themselves suspended between diplomacy and escalation — talking through intermediaries while military planners quietly update their contingency rosters. The central dispute has crystallized around the Strait of Hormuz, that ancient chokepoint through which the modern world's energy flows, with Iran proposing to toll its passage and the U.S. declaring such a claim over shared waters simply cannot stand. History has long taught that wars are easier to begin than to conclude, and this one is proving no exception — with human lives, global markets, and the architecture of international law all hanging in the balance.
- Pakistan's army chief arrived in Tehran carrying the fragile momentum of indirect talks, but 'a little bit of movement' is a long way from the breakthrough the world is waiting for.
- Iran's proposal to charge tolls on Strait of Hormuz passage has hardened positions on all sides — the EU is moving toward sanctions, a record-setting UN resolution is being drafted, and Washington is calling it flatly unacceptable.
- Even as diplomats meet, U.S. military officials are canceling holiday plans and updating recall rosters, signaling that a fresh round of strikes remains a live option on the table.
- In Washington, political support for the war is quietly collapsing — House Republicans pulled a war powers vote they feared they would lose, exposing a president increasingly isolated on his own side of the aisle.
- Markets rose on hopes of resolution while European economists warned that inflation and energy prices will remain elevated well into 2027 — the economic wound, they cautioned, will outlast the fighting itself.
Three months into the US-Iran war, diplomacy and military preparation are unfolding simultaneously — an uneasy hedge that defines where things stand. Pakistan's army chief arrived in Tehran on Friday to continue indirect negotiations that Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged had shown 'a little bit of movement.' Yet even as talks proceed, U.S. military officials were quietly updating recall rosters and canceling Memorial Day plans at overseas installations, signaling that fresh strikes remain a genuine possibility.
The core disagreements are deep. Iran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets returned, and the U.S. port blockade ended — a blockade that has already rerouted 97 commercial vessels since mid-April. Washington demands Iran abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions and address its enrichment program. But the sharpest flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has proposed a tolling system for vessels passing through the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil. Rubio's response was unambiguous: 'That's just not acceptable. It can't happen.' The EU moved Friday toward sanctioning Iranian officials over the blockade, and a UN Security Council resolution — drawing more co-sponsors than any in history — faces likely vetoes from China and Russia.
Iran's new negotiating spokesman framed his country's position not as seeking concessions but as demanding the restoration of rights — pointing to decades of sanctions and what Tehran characterizes as illegal U.S. conduct. The language itself reveals the chasm: what Washington calls concessions, Tehran calls what it is owed.
The human toll of the broader conflict continues to accumulate. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon killed at least ten people Friday, including six paramedics and a Syrian child. Since March 2, more than 3,100 people have been killed in Lebanon, over 9,400 wounded, and a million displaced. A ceasefire announced in mid-April has held in name only, with both sides trading accusations of violations daily and Hezbollah refusing to disarm.
In Washington, political fractures are widening. House Republicans canceled a scheduled vote on a war powers resolution — brought by Democrats to compel withdrawal — once it became clear they lacked the votes to defeat it. The war was launched without congressional authorization, and rank-and-file Republicans are increasingly willing to say so publicly. Meanwhile, markets rose Friday on hopes of resolution, but European economists warned that energy prices and inflation will remain elevated well into 2027. Even peace, when it comes, will not immediately undo what this war has set in motion.
The war between the United States and Iran, now three months old, sits in an uncertain middle ground. Diplomacy is happening—Pakistan's army chief arrived in Tehran on Friday to meet with Iranian officials, carrying forward indirect negotiations that have shown what Secretary of State Marco Rubio called "a little bit of movement." But movement is not agreement. The Trump administration, even as it pursues a deal, is simultaneously preparing for fresh military strikes. No final decision had been made as of Friday afternoon, but military officials were updating recall rosters and canceling Memorial Day weekend plans across U.S. installations overseas. The administration is hedging its bets.
The sticking points are substantial. Iran wants sanctions lifted, its frozen assets returned, and an end to the U.S. blockade of its ports—a blockade that has already forced the redirection of 97 commercial vessels since mid-April. The United States demands that Iran abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions and address its uranium enrichment program. And then there is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil typically flows. Iran has proposed creating a tolling system—essentially charging vessels a fee to pass through. Rubio was blunt: "That's just not acceptable. It can't happen." He told NATO allies that if Iran refuses to reopen the strait, the U.S. and its partners must have "a Plan B." The European Union moved Friday toward sanctioning Iranian officials responsible for the blockade, deeming it contrary to international law. A UN Security Council resolution calling on Iran to stop its attacks and threats against vessels in the strait has garnered the highest number of co-sponsors of any resolution ever—but China and Russia are considering vetoing it.
Pakistan, which has served as the primary intermediary throughout the conflict, is pushing hard for a breakthrough. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi held meetings in Tehran earlier this week, and a senior Pakistani official told CBS News that those talks had moved negotiations "in an important direction." Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir arrived Friday to continue the effort. Yet Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesman was coy about the visit, saying he was "not aware of any visit right now" and declining to discuss specifics, citing the need for discretion in mediation work.
Iran's new negotiating spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, framed his country's position as one of demanding rights rather than seeking concessions. "We want our rights to be restored," he said, pointing to decades of sanctions and what Iran characterizes as illegal U.S. actions. He reiterated Iran's demands: an end to U.S. military action, the lifting of sanctions, the return of frozen assets, and an end to the port blockade. The language suggests deep disagreement on fundamentals—the U.S. sees these as concessions; Iran sees them as restoration of what it believes it is owed.
Meanwhile, the human cost of the broader conflict continues to mount. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon killed at least ten people on Friday, including six paramedics and a Syrian child. The death toll from Israeli strikes in Lebanon since March 2 has reached 3,111, with more than 9,400 wounded and over a million displaced from their homes. A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced in mid-April, but both sides have continued fighting, accusing each other of violations almost daily. Hezbollah has rejected the ceasefire entirely and refuses to disarm as the Lebanese government demands.
Back in Washington, political support for the war is fraying. House Republicans canceled a scheduled vote on a war powers resolution that appeared likely to pass, delaying the matter into June. The resolution, brought by Democrats, would have compelled President Trump to withdraw from the conflict. Republican leaders declined to hold the vote once it became clear they lacked the numbers to defeat it. In the Senate, Republicans are working to ensure they have votes to block a similar resolution. The war was launched without congressional approval more than two months ago, and rank-and-file Republicans are increasingly willing to defy the president over it.
On Wall Street, stocks rose Friday on optimism that the Middle East conflict might be resolved and oil prices would retreat. The Dow gained 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%. But in Europe, officials warned that energy prices will remain elevated well into 2027, with inflation forecast at 3.1% this year—significantly higher than earlier projections. Even if the conflict ended today, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, "lagging effects" would keep prices of goods elevated. The economic reverberations of this war will outlast the fighting itself.
Citas Notables
We want our rights to be restored. For the past five decades, we have been under what they themselves call 'crippling sanctions.'— Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran's new negotiating team spokesman
We all would love to see an agreement with Iran in which the straits are open and they abandon their nuclear ambitions. But we also have to have a Plan B—what if Iran refuses to open the straits?— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much that it's become a breaking point in these negotiations?
Because it's the chokepoint for global oil. About a fifth of the world's oil passes through it in normal times. If Iran can control access—or charge tolls—it reshapes the entire global energy market. That's not just a regional issue anymore.
But Iran is a coastal nation there. Don't they have some legitimate claim to regulate what passes through?
That's exactly what Iran's arguing. They say the war has created a "fundamental change of circumstances" that justifies new restrictions. But international law treats straits differently than territorial waters. The U.S. and its allies see a toll system as extortion. Iran sees it as sovereignty.
Pakistan keeps showing up in this story. Why are they the mediators?
Geography and relationships. Pakistan borders Iran, has ties to the U.S., and has leverage neither side can easily ignore. They're trusted enough by both to carry messages back and forth without either side losing face. It's delicate work—their spokesman won't even confirm the army chief's visit to Tehran.
What does "slight progress" actually mean in a negotiation like this?
It probably means they're talking about talking. Maybe some movement on sequencing—what gets addressed first, what gets held back. But the core demands haven't shifted. Iran still wants sanctions lifted and its assets returned. The U.S. still says Iran can never have nuclear weapons. Those positions are miles apart.
The House Republicans canceled a vote they were going to lose. What does that tell you?
That the war is becoming politically toxic even among the president's own party. Three months in, without a congressional declaration, and now lawmakers are openly defying him. That's a sign the ground is shifting underneath this conflict.
And meanwhile, people in Lebanon are still dying despite a ceasefire.
Yes. Over 3,100 dead since March. The ceasefire exists on paper but not on the ground. Hezbollah won't accept it, Israel keeps striking, and the people caught between them keep paying the price. That's the reality beneath all the diplomatic language.