The more we refine our oil, the more money we're making.
Em meio à turbulência geopolítica provocada pelo conflito no Irã, a Petrobras alcançou em maio de 2026 um índice de utilização de 103% em suas refinarias — o maior desde dezembro de 2014 —, transformando a instabilidade global em oportunidade industrial. A estatal brasileira, ao processar mais petróleo bruto em combustíveis refinados de alto valor, busca não apenas lucro imediato, mas uma soberania energética mais robusta diante de mercados voláteis. É um momento em que a disciplina técnica e a ambição estratégica se encontram na borda dos limites projetados — e deliberadamente os ultrapassam.
- A guerra no Irã elevou os preços globais dos combustíveis e abriu uma janela rara de rentabilidade para quem refina petróleo em vez de apenas exportá-lo bruto.
- A Petrobras respondeu com agressividade: em semanas, o fator de utilização saltou de 95% no primeiro trimestre para 103% em maio, quebrando um teto que não era rompido há mais de uma década.
- Por trás dos números, há uma engenharia silenciosa — inspeções baseadas em risco, ciclos de manutenção estendidos e bombas operando a 90% de disponibilidade onde antes chegavam a 70%.
- A refinaria Abreu e Lima, em Ipojuca, simboliza a estratégia: após revisão em 2025, bateu recorde de produção de diesel de baixo teor de enxofre em abril de 2026, superando uma marca que resistia por quase uma década.
- O ritmo acelerado depende de variáveis frágeis — aprovação regulatória da ANP, estabilidade geopolítica e a capacidade de manter equipamentos industriais no limite sem que o limite os quebre.
Na manhã de uma terça-feira de maio, a presidente da Petrobras, Magda Chambriard, anunciou a investidores que as refinarias da companhia estavam operando além de sua capacidade instalada. O fator de utilização havia chegado a 103% — o maior índice desde dezembro de 2014. Não era um acidente: era uma escolha.
O contexto geopolítico criou o incentivo. O conflito no Irã perturbou os mercados globais de petróleo e elevou os preços dos combustíveis refinados. Para a Petrobras, a lógica era direta: quanto mais petróleo bruto transformado em diesel, gasolina e querosene de aviação, maior o valor capturado. O diretor de processos industriais, William França, resumiu sem rodeios — refinar mais significa ganhar mais, e o momento exigia aproveitar cada barril disponível.
Mas operar acima dos limites de projeto exige mais do que ambição. A companhia passou o ano anterior reformulando suas práticas de manutenção, adotando inspeções baseadas em risco e estendendo os ciclos operacionais dos equipamentos. Bombas que antes precisavam de intervenção com 70% de disponibilidade passaram a rodar a 90%. As grandes paradas programadas foram concentradas em 2025, deixando 2026 livre para a produção máxima.
A refinaria Abreu e Lima, em Ipojuca, perto do Recife, ilustra bem a estratégia. Após manutenção no início de 2025, sua capacidade diária foi ampliada de 130 mil para até 150 mil barris. Em abril de 2026, a unidade bateu recorde de produção de diesel de baixo enxofre — 385 milhões de litros, superando uma marca que durava quase dez anos.
A Petrobras opera onze refinarias no Brasil e conta com autorização regulatória da ANP para ultrapassar os 100% de utilização, desde que padrões de segurança, meio ambiente e qualidade sejam mantidos. A pergunta que permanece é sobre a sustentabilidade desse ritmo: a volatilidade geopolítica abriu a janela, a disciplina técnica preparou as máquinas — mas manter plantas industriais no limite por meses seguidos é um equilíbrio precário, sensível a qualquer falha inesperada ou mudança de cenário.
On a Tuesday morning in May, Petrobras announced that its refineries were running beyond their design limits. The company's president, Magda Chambriard, made the declaration during a quarterly earnings presentation to investors and analysts. By early May, the refineries had pushed past 103 percent of their total utilization factor—a metric that measures how much crude oil is being processed against the installed capacity of the facilities. It was the highest reading since December 2014, and it signaled something deliberate: Brazil's state oil company was squeezing every barrel it could from its industrial infrastructure.
The numbers told the story of escalation. In the first quarter of 2026, the utilization factor stood at 95 percent. By March, it had climbed to 97.4 percent. Then, in April and May, it broke through the ceiling. William França, the director overseeing industrial processes and products, was blunt about it: "We're operating at 100, 102, 103 percent." He added, "From yesterday to today we operated at 103 percent in our refineries." Chambriard framed it as ambition: "Petrobras does not like limits. Its goal is to exceed limits every day."
The context mattered. War in Iran had disrupted global oil markets and driven prices higher. As an exporter of refined fuels—diesel, gasoline, jet fuel—Petrobras stood to profit from the chaos. The more crude the company processed into finished products, the more value it captured. França explained the calculus plainly: "We had the effect of war. The more we refine our oil, the more money we're making. We're adding value beyond just exporting crude." For a country seeking to reduce its dependence on volatile international markets, the logic was sound. Produce more fuel at home, sell it abroad at premium prices, and insulate Brazil from external shocks.
But running refineries above their design capacity requires more than ambition. It demands reliability. Petrobras had spent the previous year overhauling its maintenance practices. The company invested heavily in risk-based inspections and engineering tools designed to keep equipment running longer between interventions. Pumps that once operated at 70 percent availability before requiring service now ran at 90 percent. The company had stretched maintenance cycles, reducing downtime and allowing refineries to sustain higher processing loads for longer stretches. "This allows us to increase our utilization factor," França said, "to run our units at higher capacity for much longer than before."
2026 had been a light year for scheduled maintenance—by design. The company had front-loaded major overhauls in 2025, preparing the refineries for a sustained push. The Abreu e Lima refinery in Ipojuca, near Recife, exemplified the strategy. After maintenance in early 2025, the facility had been cleared to increase its daily throughput from 130,000 barrels to between 140,000 and 150,000 barrels. In April, it set a record, producing 385 million liters of low-sulfur diesel—cleaner fuel that commands higher prices. The previous record, 373 million liters, had stood for nearly a decade.
Petrobras operates eleven refineries across Brazil, with the Paulínia facility in São Paulo's interior handling roughly 30 percent of the nation's total refining. The company had regulatory approval from Brazil's National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels to push utilization above 100 percent, provided safety, environmental, and quality standards held. The question now was whether the company could sustain this pace. Geopolitical volatility had opened a window. Maintenance discipline had prepared the machinery. But running industrial plants at the edge of their limits, for months on end, is a high-wire act. One unexpected breakdown, one regulatory shift, one change in global prices, and the entire calculation shifts.
Citações Notáveis
Petrobras does not like limits. Its goal is to exceed limits every day.— Magda Chambriard, Petrobras president
We had the effect of war. The more we refine our oil, the more money we're making. We're adding value beyond just exporting crude.— William França, director of industrial processes and products
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter that refineries are running at 103 percent instead of, say, 95 percent? Isn't that just a number?
It's the difference between using what you have and wringing everything out of it. At 95 percent, you're leaving capacity on the table. At 103 percent, you're processing more crude than the equipment was originally designed to handle—which means more fuel produced, more revenue, and less need to buy from abroad.
But doesn't running equipment beyond its limits wear it out faster?
Normally, yes. That's why Petrobras spent 2025 doing heavy maintenance. They rebuilt the reliability of the machines so they could sustain higher loads without breaking down. It's a calculated bet: invest heavily in upkeep now so you can push harder later.
And the geopolitical angle—how much of this is about the Iran war versus just good management?
Both. The war created the market opportunity—higher fuel prices abroad mean higher profits. But without the maintenance improvements, Petrobras couldn't have capitalized on it. The war opened the door; the engineering kept it open.
What happens if something breaks?
Then the whole strategy unravels. You lose production, you can't fulfill export contracts, and you're back to importing fuel. That's why they're being so careful about maintenance cycles and why they're monitoring equipment so closely.
Is this sustainable?
That depends on whether the geopolitical situation stays volatile and whether the machines hold up. Petrobras is betting on both. If either changes, they'll have to dial back.