Public schools are now below pandemic levels, even as private enrollment climbs.
No Paraná, o sistema público de ensino enfrenta seu menor nível de matrículas em uma década, enquanto as escolas privadas registram seu maior crescimento desde 2015 — uma divergência que levanta questões profundas sobre quem, afinal, tem acesso à educação no estado. Os números do Censo Escolar Nacional revelam não apenas uma mudança demográfica, mas possivelmente uma reconfiguração silenciosa das oportunidades: enquanto famílias com recursos migram para o setor privado, o sistema público contrai-se justamente para aqueles que mais dependem dele.
- As escolas públicas do Paraná perderam quase 67 mil alunos em um único ano, atingindo o menor patamar de matrículas desde antes da pandemia — um recuo que supera a maioria dos estados brasileiros.
- O ensino médio é o epicentro da crise: em dez anos, quase um quinto dos estudantes desapareceu das salas de aula estaduais, com uma queda de 6,7% só em 2025.
- Enquanto o setor público encolhe, as escolas privadas batem recorde de matrículas desde 2015, sinalizando uma migração de famílias com poder aquisitivo para fora da rede pública.
- O ministro da Educação interpreta a queda nacional como reflexo de avanços — menos repetência e menos crianças em idade escolar —, mas os dados do Paraná resistem a essa leitura otimista.
- Para as famílias sem condições de arcar com mensalidades privadas, a contração do sistema público significa menos vagas, menos professores e menos recursos em uma rede já sobrecarregada.
As escolas públicas do Paraná vivem um momento de retração histórica. Em 2025, o sistema perdeu quase 67 mil alunos em relação ao ano anterior — uma queda de 3,3% que levou as matrículas a 1,96 milhão, o nível mais baixo em dez anos, inferior até ao registrado em 2021, no auge da pandemia. Os dados são do Censo Escolar Nacional, divulgado pelo instituto de pesquisa educacional do governo federal.
Ao mesmo tempo, as escolas privadas do estado cresceram: chegaram a 482,7 mil matrículas, o maior número desde pelo menos 2015, com um acréscimo de 6,3 mil alunos. A divergência entre os dois sistemas é o dado mais revelador — enquanto o público perde, o privado avança.
O ministro da Educação, Camilo Santana, defendeu que a queda nacional nas matrículas públicas reflete, em parte, boas notícias: menos crianças repetindo anos e uma coorte demográfica menor chegando à idade escolar. A lógica tem respaldo em nível nacional, mas o Paraná complica essa narrativa. O estado perdeu 60,5 mil matrículas totais em apenas um ano — de 2,5 milhões para 2,44 milhões.
A crise é mais aguda no ensino médio. Em uma década, o Paraná perdeu 84,6 mil alunos nessa etapa — quase um quinto do total —, com uma queda de 6,7% só em 2025. Apenas São Paulo, Roraima e Acre registraram recuos mais acentuados no ensino secundário. A educação infantil é a única exceção positiva, com crescimento de 29,8% no período.
O que permanece em aberto é a natureza real dessa transformação. Se a queda demográfica explica parte do fenômeno, a migração de famílias para o setor privado sugere que há algo mais em curso. Para quem não pode pagar por ensino particular, a contração da rede pública representa menos oportunidades — e uma infraestrutura que se estreita no momento em que deveria se fortalecer.
Paraná's public schools are contracting. Last year, the state's public education system lost nearly 67,000 students—a 3.3 percent drop that brought enrollment to its lowest point in a decade, even lower than 2021 when the pandemic shuttered classrooms across Brazil. The numbers come from the National School Census, released recently by Brazil's education research institute, and they tell a story of divergence: while public institutions hemorrhage students, private schools are gaining ground.
In 2025, Paraná's public schools served 1.96 million children across municipal and state systems. A year earlier, that figure stood at 2.02 million. The decline mirrors a national pattern—Brazil lost more than a million public school enrollments between 2024 and 2025, dropping from 47.08 million to 46.01 million students overall. But in Paraná, the shift is more pronounced, and it's not distributed evenly. While public education shrinks, private schools are thriving. They enrolled 482,763 students in 2025, up from 476,409 the year before—a gain of 6,354 pupils and the highest private enrollment the state has seen since at least 2015.
Education Minister Camilo Santana has framed the national decline as essentially positive news. Two factors explain it, he argues: fewer children are reaching school age, and fewer students are repeating grades. With a smaller cohort of school-age children, the fact that more of them are actually in classrooms represents progress in coverage. "This is good data," Santana said when the census results were announced. The logic is sound at the national level. But Paraná's experience complicates the narrative. The state has shed 60,535 enrollments in just one year—from 2.5 million in 2024 to 2.44 million in 2025. The last time enrollment was this low was 2021, the worst year of the pandemic.
The real crisis is in high school. Over the past decade, Paraná's secondary education system has lost nearly one-fifth of its students. In 2015, high schools enrolled 474,267 pupils. By 2025, that number had fallen to 389,656—a loss of 84,611 students, or 17.8 percent. Just in the past year alone, high schools lost 28,180 enrollments, a 6.7 percent drop. Paraná's decline outpaces most of Brazil; only São Paulo, Roraima, and Acre have seen steeper drops in secondary enrollment. Early childhood education is the only segment gaining students—it grew 29.8 percent over the decade, from 416,440 to 540,462. Elementary school's early years held relatively steady, declining just 2.2 percent. But the final years of elementary fell 12.5 percent, and high school collapsed.
What remains unclear is whether this shift reflects demographic reality or something else. If fewer teenagers exist, then fewer teenagers will sit in classrooms. But the divergence between public and private enrollment suggests the story is more complicated. Families with resources are moving their children to private schools while public enrollment plummets. For families without those resources, the contraction of public education means fewer seats, fewer teachers, fewer resources spread across a system already stretched thin. The state's education infrastructure is shrinking precisely when it should be preparing for the students who remain.
Citas Notables
Education Minister Camilo Santana characterized the national enrollment decline as positive, attributing it to fewer school-age children and improved grade progression rates.— Camilo Santana, Education Minister
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter that private schools are gaining while public schools lose? Isn't that just families making choices?
It matters because those choices aren't equally available. If you have money, you can choose private school. If you don't, you're stuck with whatever public system remains. When public enrollment drops this fast, schools close, teachers are laid off, resources concentrate elsewhere. The families left behind get less.
But the education minister says this is actually good—fewer kids, better coverage. Isn't that true?
It's true that covering more of a smaller population is progress. But Paraná's numbers suggest something different is happening. Public schools are losing 67,000 students while private schools gain 6,000. That's not just demographics. That's movement.
Movement toward what?
Toward private education, for those who can afford it. The pandemic hit private schools hard—enrollment bottomed out at 400,000 in 2021. But since 2022, they've been climbing steadily. Meanwhile, public schools have never recovered. They're now below pandemic levels.
What about high school specifically? That's where the real collapse is happening.
Yes. High school lost nearly a fifth of its students over ten years. That's not a small adjustment. That's a system losing its grip on an entire generation. And it's happening faster in Paraná than almost anywhere else in Brazil.
What happens to the teenagers who don't finish high school?
That's the question nobody's answering yet. Some might be working. Some might have dropped out. Some might be in private schools their families are stretching to afford. But the public system that's supposed to catch everyone is getting smaller, not bigger.