Kalil's support jumped to 41 percent when paired with Lula's name
Em Minas Gerais, o governador Romeu Zema lidera com folga a corrida pelo Palácio Tiradentes, mas a entrada de Lula ao lado de Kalil reacende uma disputa que parecia encaminhada. A política eleitoral brasileira, fiel à sua natureza, lembra que alianças e endossos presidenciais podem redesenhar em dias o que meses de campanha construíram. O estado mais populoso do interior do país torna-se, mais uma vez, palco onde o destino nacional e as ambições locais se entrelaçam.
- Zema lidera com 46% e abre 12 pontos sobre Kalil, mas a vantagem é menos sólida do que parece diante da volatilidade do eleitorado mineiro.
- O abraço público de Lula a Kalil em Belo Horizonte, véspera da divulgação da pesquisa, comprimiu a diferença para apenas três pontos no cenário com endosso — dentro da margem de erro.
- Bolsonaro e Viana formalizaram sua aliança no Palácio do Planalto, mas o senador permanece distante, com apenas 9% das intenções de voto no cenário estimulado.
- Nos duelos de segundo turno, Zema vence os dois adversários com folga, sugerindo que sua posição é estruturalmente mais robusta do que os números do primeiro turno indicam.
- No Senado, uma disputa paralela surpreende: Silveira e Cleitinho empatam com 14%, enquanto nomes antes favoritos abandonaram a corrida por cálculos estratégicos próprios.
Uma pesquisa telefônica da Real Time Big Data, divulgada na sexta-feira, mostrou Romeu Zema, governador de Minas Gerais em busca da reeleição pelo Novo, com 46% das intenções de voto. Alexandre Kalil, ex-prefeito de Belo Horizonte pelo PSD, apareceu em segundo lugar com 34%, e o senador Carlos Viana, do PL, em terceiro com 9%. O levantamento ouviu 1.500 eleitores nos dias 17 e 18 de agosto, com margem de erro de três pontos e nível de confiança de 95%.
O dado mais revelador da pesquisa não estava nos números brutos, mas no que acontecia quando os eleitores eram informados sobre os endossos presidenciais. Com o apoio de Lula declarado, Kalil saltava para 41% e Zema recuava para 36% — um empate técnico que invertia a narrativa da corrida. O ex-presidente havia feito sua primeira grande aparição de campanha em Belo Horizonte justamente na véspera da divulgação da pesquisa, ao lado de Kalil, sublinhando o peso estratégico da aliança.
Nos cenários de segundo turno, porém, Zema mostrou maior solidez: venceria Kalil por dez pontos e Viana por uma margem de 39 pontos. Kalil, por sua vez, derrotaria Viana com facilidade. O quadro sugeria uma corrida ainda aberta, cujo desfecho dependeria de a disputa chegar ou não a um segundo turno — e de quem estaria nele.
Na corrida ao Senado, uma surpresa: Alexandre Silveira, do PSD, e Cleitinho, do PSC, empatavam com 14% cada. O campo havia sido remodelado pela saída de Aécio Neves, que migrou para a disputa pela Câmara, e pela desistência de Duda Salabert, que buscou uma cadeira de deputada federal alegando maior proteção institucional no cargo.
A telephone survey conducted by Real Time Big Data and released on Friday showed Romeu Zema, the sitting governor of Minas Gerais running for reelection on the Novo ticket, commanding 46 percent of voter intentions. Alexandre Kalil, the former mayor of Belo Horizonte representing the PSD, stood in second place with 34 percent. Senator Carlos Viana of the PL party trailed in third with 9 percent, while all other candidates clustered within the poll's three-point margin of error.
The numbers represented a modest shift from July, when Zema held 44 percent and Kalil 33 percent. But the two surveys were not directly comparable, since this month's version included three additional candidates—Indira, Cabo Paulo, and Lourdes—in the tested scenario. The poll of 1,500 respondents, conducted August 17 and 18, carried a 95 percent confidence level and a three-point margin of error in either direction.
What made this particular survey notable was its second component: a test of how presidential endorsements might reshape the race. When voters were told that Lula, the former president and PT candidate, backed Kalil, the ex-mayor's support jumped to 41 percent while Zema's fell to 36 percent. Kalil thus moved into a statistical tie with the incumbent, though still trailing by three points—within the margin of error. Zema, meanwhile, drew backing from Luiz Felipe D'Ávila, the Novo party's presidential nominee, while Viana aligned with President Jair Bolsonaro. The endorsement effect was stark: Kalil's gain of seven points when paired with Lula's name suggested that presidential coattails could prove decisive in a state where the gubernatorial and presidential races were running in parallel.
Lula had made his first major campaign appearance in Belo Horizonte the day before the poll was released, standing alongside Kalil. The timing underscored the strategic importance of the endorsement. Bolsonaro and Viana had formalized their alliance on August 2, with the announcement coming during an afternoon meeting at the presidential palace, attended by the party's national president, Valdemar Costa Neto.
Runoff scenarios painted a different picture. Zema would defeat both Kalil and Viana in head-to-head matchups. Against Kalil, Zema led by ten points, 49 to 39 percent. Against Viana, the margin swelled to 39 points, with Zema at 51 percent and Viana at 12 percent. Kalil, for his part, would beat Viana in a second-round contest, taking 40 percent to Viana's 15 percent. The data suggested that while Zema held the strongest position overall, the race remained fluid—dependent on whether the first round would produce a runoff, and if so, which candidates would advance.
The survey also examined the Senate race in Minas Gerais, where an unusual deadlock had emerged. Senator Alexandre Silveira of the PSD and state deputy Cleitinho of the PSC each drew 14 percent support, locked in a tie at the top of the field. Two notable absences shaped the race: Aécio Neves, the federal deputy who had led Senate polling for months, withdrew to run for the Chamber of Deputies instead. Vereadora Duda Salabert of Belo Horizonte, representing the PDT, also stepped aside, citing her party's potential alliance with the PSDB and her own desire for a federal deputy seat, which she said would offer greater protection.
Real Time Big Data, founded in 2015 and based in São Paulo, has conducted all its polling by telephone since its first presidential survey in 2018, with primary funding from TV Record. The firm registered this survey with the Superior Electoral Court under number MG-00461/2022, with a cost of 20,000 reais.
Citas Notables
Lula made his first major campaign appearance in Belo Horizonte the day before the poll was released, standing alongside Kalil— Campaign timeline
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Lula's endorsement move the needle so dramatically for Kalil—seven points in a single scenario?
Because in a polarized electorate, presidential alignment matters enormously. Voters who might not know much about Kalil suddenly have a signal: this candidate belongs to my coalition. It's not about Kalil's record as mayor; it's about which team he's on.
But Zema still leads even when you factor in D'Ávila's endorsement. Why doesn't that help him as much?
D'Ávila is less of a known quantity than Lula. Lula has been a dominant figure in Brazilian politics for decades. D'Ávila is the Novo party's standard-bearer, but he's not carrying the same gravitational pull. The endorsement matters, but it doesn't move voters the same way.
The runoff scenarios show Zema beating both opponents. So what's the actual threat to his reelection?
The threat is if Kalil makes it to a second round. Right now, Zema's ahead in the first round, but if Lula's campaign gains momentum between now and October, Kalil could close that gap and force a runoff. Once you're in a runoff, the dynamics change. Coalitions harden. Turnout shifts.
What about Viana? He's at 9 percent. Can he realistically compete?
Not in the current landscape. He's third, and the gap between him and Kalil is enormous. Bolsonaro's endorsement hasn't lifted him much. He's essentially a spoiler at this point—someone who could affect the dynamics if the race tightens, but not a serious contender for the governorship.
Why did Aécio Neves drop out of the Senate race?
He was leading the Senate polling, but he apparently decided his future lay in the Chamber of Deputies instead. It's a strategic choice—maybe he saw the Senate race as too uncertain, or maybe he wanted to secure a seat in Congress where he has more influence. Either way, his absence reshapes the Senate field entirely.
And Duda Salabert mentioned needing protection. What did she mean?
She didn't elaborate in the statement, but she's a trans woman in Brazilian politics, which carries real risks. Moving to a federal deputy seat might offer her more security—a larger constituency, more institutional backing. It's a calculation about safety as much as electoral viability.