Zema's position strengthens considerably in a two-candidate race
Em Minas Gerais, o governador Romeu Zema avança para um segundo mandato com a força de quem já ocupa o centro do palco: pesquisa de julho de 2022 o coloca com 44% das intenções de voto, onze pontos à frente do ex-prefeito Alexandre Kalil. Enquanto a corrida ao governo apresenta um favorito claro, a disputa pelo Senado permanece em aberto, com três candidatos empatados tecnicamente — lembrando que nem toda eleição revela seu vencedor antes do último ato.
- Zema consolida uma vantagem de 11 pontos sobre Kalil no cenário estimulado, sinalizando que o incumbente chega à reta final em posição de força.
- Na simulação de segundo turno, a distância se amplia: 48% a 39%, sugerindo que o eleitorado flutuante tende a migrar para o governador, não para o desafiante.
- Carlos Viana, terceiro colocado com apenas 8%, e os demais candidatos fragmentam o campo sem ameaçar o topo — a corrida ao Palácio Tiradentes é, na prática, uma disputa entre dois.
- A corrida ao Senado conta uma história diferente: Aécio Neves, Alexandre Silveira e Cleitinho estão tecnicamente empatados entre 10% e 16%, deixando a vaga genuinamente em disputa.
- Com 51% dos eleitores incapazes de citar espontaneamente um candidato ao governo, o eleitorado ainda não está plenamente engajado — o que mantém alguma margem de imprevisibilidade até outubro.
O governador Romeu Zema lidera com folga a corrida pela reeleição em Minas Gerais. Pesquisa da Real Time Big Data, encomendada pela TV Record e realizada por telefone com 1.500 eleitores entre os dias 19 e 20 de julho de 2022, aponta 44% das intenções de voto para o atual chefe do Executivo estadual — onze pontos à frente de Alexandre Kalil, ex-prefeito de Belo Horizonte, que marca 33%. O senador Carlos Viana aparece em terceiro, com 8%, sem capacidade de ameaçar os dois primeiros.
A simulação de segundo turno reforça o favoritismo de Zema: em um confronto direto com Kalil, o governador sobe para 48% contra 39% do adversário. A comparação com o levantamento anterior, de maio, indica estabilidade — Zema tinha 43% naquela ocasião —, embora mudanças no campo de candidatos impeçam uma análise precisa de tendência. No cenário espontâneo, onde eleitores nomeiam preferências sem ser induzidos, Zema aparece com 16% e Kalil com 8%; mais da metade dos entrevistados não soube ou não quis indicar nenhum nome.
Já a disputa pelo Senado apresenta um quadro bem mais aberto. Aécio Neves lidera com 16%, mas Alexandre Silveira (11%) e Cleitinho (10%) estão dentro da margem de erro de três pontos, configurando um empate técnico no topo. Duda Salabert, com 7%, também se aproxima desse grupo. Um quarto dos eleitores declarou intenção de votar em branco ou nulo na corrida senatorial, e outro quarto não respondeu — sinais de que essa disputa ainda não encontrou seu eixo definidor.
Romeu Zema, the sitting governor of Minas Gerais, holds a commanding lead in his bid for reelection. According to a poll released in late July by Real Time Big Data and commissioned by TV Record, Zema commands 44 percent of voter intention, a substantial margin over his nearest rival. The survey, conducted by telephone among 1,500 registered voters across the state between July 19 and 20, carries a confidence interval of 95 percent and cost 20,000 reais to execute.
Alexandre Kalil, the former mayor of Belo Horizonte and the Zema campaign's most serious challenger, trails at 33 percent. The gap between them—eleven percentage points—reflects a race that, while competitive, appears to favor the incumbent. The third-place finisher, Senator Carlos Viana, registers just 8 percent support. Federal Deputy Marcus Pestana sits at 2 percent, technically tied with Viana within the survey's margin of error. Several other candidates cluster at or near 1 percent: Lorene Figueiredo, Vanessa Portugal, and Renata Regina, representing the PSOL, PSTU, and PCB respectively. Six percent of respondents indicated they would cast blank or null votes, while 5 percent declined to answer.
The polling institute tested a second scenario—essentially a runoff simulation between the two frontrunners. In that head-to-head matchup, Zema's position strengthens considerably. He rises to 48 percent while Kalil reaches 39 percent, widening the gap to nine points. This suggests that in a two-candidate race, Zema's support consolidates more effectively than Kalil's does. Seven percent would vote blank or null in this scenario, and 6 percent would not respond.
Comparison with the institute's previous survey from May reveals consistency in the race's basic contours, though direct comparison proves difficult. In May, Zema held 43 percent support, suggesting his position has remained stable or marginally strengthened. The candidate field has shifted, however. Vanessa Portugal entered the race while Miguel Correa and Saraiva Felipe withdrew, making precise trend analysis impossible. The spontaneous response scenario—where voters name candidates without prompting—shows the race's underlying awareness levels. Zema emerges at 16 percent unaided, Kalil at 8 percent, and Viana at 2 percent. Notably, 51 percent of respondents could not or would not name a preference without being offered options, and 19 percent indicated they would vote blank or null.
The same polling effort examined the state's Senate race, where the picture grows murkier. Three candidates occupy the top tier within the margin of error: Aécio Neves, a federal deputy from the PSDB, leads with 16 percent; Alexandre Silveira, the incumbent senator from the PSD, holds 11 percent; and Cleitinho, a state deputy from the PSC, registers 10 percent. Duda Salabert, running on the PDT ticket, sits at 7 percent and technically ties with both Silveira and Cleitinho given the survey's three-point margin of error. The field fragments further below: Marcelo Álvaro Antônio at 3 percent, Paulo Piau at 2 percent, and Marcelo Aro at 1 percent. A quarter of voters indicated they would cast blank or null ballots in the Senate race, and another quarter did not respond. The Senate contest, unlike the gubernatorial race, offers no clear frontrunner and suggests a genuinely open field heading into the election.
Notable Quotes
In the head-to-head matchup, Zema's support consolidates more effectively than Kalil's does— Real Time Big Data polling analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Zema's lead feel so decisive when it's only eleven points ahead of Kalil?
Because in a multi-candidate field, eleven points is substantial. Kalil is the only other candidate above single digits. Everyone else is fragmented. Zema doesn't need to persuade many more people—he just needs to hold what he has.
The head-to-head scenario shows Zema at 48 and Kalil at 39. That's a bigger gap. What does that tell us?
It tells us that when voters are forced to choose between just two people, Zema's voters stay with him, but some of Kalil's support leaks away. Kalil isn't consolidating the anti-Zema vote as effectively as he might hope.
Only 16 percent of voters can name Zema without being prompted. Doesn't that suggest his support is soft?
Not necessarily. The spontaneous numbers are always lower—people need help remembering names. What matters is that when prompted, 44 percent choose him. The gap between the two tells you something about awareness, but the prompted numbers tell you about actual preference.
The Senate race looks completely different—three people tied at the top. Why is that race so much more open?
Because there's no incumbent advantage the way Zema has one. You have a federal deputy, an incumbent senator, and a state deputy all competing. None of them has the statewide profile Zema does. It's genuinely unsettled.
A quarter of voters say they'll vote blank or null in the Senate race. That's striking.
It is. It suggests either genuine indifference or protest. People know who they want for governor. For Senate, many haven't decided or don't feel strongly about any option.
What would need to happen for Kalil to close this gap?
He'd need to consolidate the anti-Zema vote and persuade some of Zema's current supporters to switch. The head-to-head scenario suggests he can't do the first part easily. The second part is even harder when an incumbent is this far ahead.