Nearly two-thirds of the electorate hasn't made up their minds
No início de fevereiro de 2026, uma pesquisa Real Time Big Data revelou que a disputa pelo governo do Ceará ainda é um campo aberto: o governador Elmano de Freitas e o ex-governador Ciro Gomes estão tecnicamente empatados, enquanto quase dois terços do eleitorado permanecem indecisos. É o retrato de uma corrida que ainda não encontrou sua forma definitiva — onde a identidade dos adversários molda os números tanto quanto as convicções dos eleitores. O que a pesquisa oferece não é uma previsão, mas um espelho do momento: uma democracia ainda deliberando sobre seus próprios caminhos.
- Com 64% dos eleitores sem candidato definido, a disputa ao governo do Ceará é menos uma batalha travada do que um território ainda por conquistar.
- Elmano lidera com apenas 15% na menção espontânea, enquanto Ciro Gomes, recém-migrado para o PSDB, aparece com 6% — números que revelam o quanto a campanha ainda está no começo.
- No cenário estimulado com quatro candidatos, o empate técnico entre Elmano (41%) e Ciro (38%) acende o alerta para o PT: a presença de Ciro comprime a vantagem do incumbente.
- Nas disputas ao Senado, Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) se destaca com consistência invulgar em todos os cinco cenários testados, consolidando a posição mais sólida entre os candidatos avaliados.
- A pesquisa é um instantâneo de fevereiro, não uma profecia de novembro — e seus próprios autores lembram que metodologia, amostra e formulação das perguntas influenciam cada resultado.
Uma pesquisa divulgada na quarta-feira pela Real Time Big Data oferece o primeiro retrato detalhado da corrida ao governo do Ceará em 2026 — e o que se vê é uma disputa ainda em formação. O levantamento, realizado com 2.000 eleitores entre os dias 2 e 3 de fevereiro, com margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais, encontrou um eleitorado longe de ter feito suas escolhas.
Na votação espontânea, o governador Elmano de Freitas, do PT, aparece com 15% das intenções de voto. Ciro Gomes, ex-governador e ex-ministro que recentemente migrou do PDT para o PSDB, registra 6%. Mas o dado mais revelador está em outro lugar: 64% dos entrevistados ainda não sabem em quem votar. Não é polarização — é campo aberto.
Quando os candidatos são apresentados, o cenário muda. Em um confronto com quatro nomes — Elmano, Ciro, Eduardo Girão (Novo) e Jarir Pereira (PSOL) —, o governador obtém 41% contra 38% de Ciro, um empate técnico dentro da margem de erro. Em duelos diretos, Elmano se sai melhor contra Roberto Cláudio (União Brasil), chegando a 44% contra 26%, e alcança 48% quando o campo se reduz apenas a esses dois. Contra Ciro, os dois chegam a exatos 44% cada.
Esses números flutuantes revelam uma verdade sobre campanhas em estágio inicial: a geometria da disputa depende de quem efetivamente entra no páreo. Elmano parece mais forte sem Ciro; mais vulnerável com ele.
Nas eleições para o Senado — duas vagas em jogo —, o padrão é mais nítido. Capitão Wagner, do União Brasil, lidera com consistência em todos os cinco cenários testados, variando entre 17% e 28% conforme o campo se estreita. Nenhum outro candidato demonstrou estabilidade comparável. José Guimarães (PT), Pastor Alcides (PL) e Priscilla Costa (PL) oscilam entre 12% e 19% dependendo do cenário, sem consolidar vantagem clara.
A pesquisa foi encomendada e divulgada pela própria Real Time Big Data — detalhe relevante para contextualizar sua origem. O que ela oferece é uma fotografia de um único momento em fevereiro, não uma antecipação do resultado de novembro. A corrida ao governo do Ceará ainda está esperando para ser disputada de verdade.
A new poll released Wednesday by Real Time Big Data offers the first detailed snapshot of how Ceará's 2026 governor's race is taking shape—and the picture is one of remarkable fluidity. The survey, conducted February 2-3 among 2,000 voters with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, reveals a race still very much in its infancy, with nearly two-thirds of the electorate undecided.
In the spontaneous voting scenario—where voters name their choice without prompting—incumbent governor Elmano de Freitas of the Workers' Party holds 15 percent support. Ciro Gomes, the former governor and ex-minister who recently switched from the Democratic Labour Party to the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, registers just 6 percent. But these numbers tell only part of the story. The real weight of the race emerges in the "don't know" column: 64 percent of voters surveyed have not yet made up their minds. This is not a polarized electorate. This is an open field.
When the institute presented voters with a slate of candidates and asked them to choose, the dynamic shifted dramatically. In a four-way matchup including Elmano, Ciro, Eduardo Girão of the New Party, and Jarir Pereira of the Socialist Party of Workers, Elmano drew 41 percent to Ciro's 38 percent—a technical tie within the poll's margin of error. The race tightens when the field narrows. In a head-to-head scenario between Elmano and Roberto Cláudio of the Union Brazil party, the incumbent expanded his lead to 44 percent against Cláudio's 26 percent. In a direct matchup with Ciro alone, both men landed at exactly 44 percent. When Elmano faced only Cláudio, he reached 48 percent.
These shifting numbers illustrate a fundamental truth about early-stage campaigns: the shape of the race depends entirely on which opponents actually compete. Elmano appears strongest when facing Cláudio, weaker when Ciro is in the field. The race has not yet crystallized into its final form.
The senate contests—two seats are up for grabs—show a clearer pattern. Capitão Wagner of the Union Brazil party emerges as the most consistently cited candidate across all five scenarios tested by the poll. In the first scenario, Wagner drew 17 percent, ahead of Júnior Mano of the Socialist Party of Brazil at 15 percent and Eunício Oliveira of the Brazilian Democratic Movement at 13 percent. As the scenarios narrowed the field, Wagner's support grew, reaching 28 percent in one configuration and holding steady between 25 and 26 percent in others. No other candidate approached his consistency. José Guimarães of the Workers' Party, Pastor Alcides of the Liberal Party, and Priscilla Costa of the Liberal Party all competed in the 12-to-19 percent range depending on the scenario, but none established the kind of clear advantage Wagner has built.
The poll was commissioned and released by Real Time Big Data itself, a detail worth noting when considering its provenance. The institute tested both spontaneous and stimulated scenarios to capture different dimensions of voter preference—the first showing what voters think without prompting, the second revealing how they might choose when presented with actual candidates. Both approaches have value; both have limitations. The methodology note at the survey's end reminds readers that interview methods, sample composition, and question wording all influence results. This poll is a snapshot of a single moment in early February, not a prediction of November's outcome.
What emerges is a governor's race still waiting to be fought. Elmano holds the advantage of incumbency and a slight edge in name recognition, but he faces a credible challenger in Ciro Gomes, a figure with his own political history and resources. The vast pool of undecided voters—nearly two-thirds of the electorate—suggests that campaigns, endorsements, and events between now and election day will matter enormously. The race is not decided. It has barely begun.
Notable Quotes
The race has not yet crystallized into its final form— Poll analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that 64 percent of voters don't know who they'll vote for yet?
Because it means the race is genuinely open. In a polarized election, you'd see those undecided numbers much lower—maybe 20 or 30 percent. Here, the electorate hasn't sorted itself out. Campaigns can still move voters.
But when you show people the candidates' names, Elmano and Ciro tie at 41 and 38. Doesn't that suggest the race is already set?
Not quite. Those numbers are within the margin of error, so they're statistically equivalent. But more importantly, the race changes shape depending on who else is in it. Against Cláudio alone, Elmano pulls 48 percent. Against Ciro alone, they're dead even at 44. The outcome depends on the final field.
So Elmano's position is fragile?
Not fragile exactly, but conditional. He's strongest when facing opponents he can clearly beat. When Ciro is in the race, the advantage narrows. That's worth watching as the campaign develops.
What about the senate race? Wagner seems to dominate.
He does, consistently. Across five different scenarios, he's always the most cited candidate. That's unusual. Most senate races are more scattered. Wagner has built something durable.
Is this poll predictive?
It's a moment. February 2026. The campaign hasn't really started yet. These numbers will move. What matters is the direction and the speed.