The electorate has barely begun to pay attention
No Pará, a disputa pelo governo estadual em 2026 começa sem um favorito claro: uma pesquisa da Real Time Big Data revela dois candidatos — Dr. Daniel, do PSB, e Hana Ghassan, do MDB — tecnicamente empatados, enquanto dois terços do eleitorado ainda não formaram opinião. O cenário reflete menos uma corrida em andamento do que um campo aberto, onde a força institucional do governador Helder Barbalho paira sobre o horizonte sem ainda determinar um herdeiro político definido.
- Com 67% dos eleitores indecisos na pesquisa espontânea, a disputa pelo governo do Pará ainda não tem protagonistas consolidados — apenas candidatos em posição de largada.
- Dr. Daniel e Hana Ghassan dividem o topo com empate técnico em todos os cenários testados, tornando qualquer declaração de liderança prematura e politicamente arriscada.
- Ambos os candidatos vencem Mário Couto com folga nas simulações de segundo turno, sugerindo que a batalha real será travada entre si, e não contra o terceiro colocado.
- Helder Barbalho, impedido de concorrer ao governo por limite de mandatos, mantém 79% de aprovação e lidera as preferências para o Senado com 40%, transformando-se no maior ativo — e na maior incógnita — do tabuleiro eleitoral do MDB.
- A pesquisa captura um instante, não uma tendência: com dois anos pela frente, infraestrutura de campanha, visibilidade dos candidatos e o clima político nacional ainda definirão quem governa o Pará.
A corrida pelo governo do Pará em 2026 começa sem um líder definido. Pesquisa divulgada pela Real Time Big Data, com 1.600 entrevistados ouvidos entre 20 e 21 de março, encontrou Dr. Daniel, do PSB, e Hana Ghassan, do MDB, empatados tecnicamente nos cenários estimulados — ambos com cerca de 26 a 29% de intenção de voto, dentro da margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais.
O dado mais revelador, porém, vem da pesquisa espontânea: 67% dos eleitores disseram não saber em quem votar ou não responderam. Dr. Daniel liderou essa medição com apenas 7%, seguido pelo governador Helder Barbalho e pelo delegado Éder Mauro, do PL, com 5% cada, e por Ghassan, com 4%. O eleitorado permanece genuinamente indefinido.
Nas simulações de segundo turno, os dois candidatos mostram força semelhante: Daniel vence Ghassan por 35 a 32%, e ambos derrotam Mário Couto com ampla margem — Daniel por 39 a 23%, Ghassan por 38 a 22%. Nenhum dos dois, porém, consolidou um mandato claro.
O pano de fundo da disputa é a popularidade de Helder Barbalho, que não pode concorrer à reeleição. Com 79% de aprovação e 55% de avaliações ótimas ou boas, o governador representa um capital político considerável para o MDB — embora ainda seja incerto se esse apoio se transferirá diretamente a Ghassan. Para o Senado, Barbalho lidera as preferências com 40%, reforçando a vantagem organizacional do partido no estado.
Com dois anos de campanha pela frente e o eleitorado ainda em aberto, os números atuais descrevem um ponto de partida, não um destino. A corrida pelo Pará, por ora, não pertence a ninguém.
A race for governor of Pará in 2026 remains wide open, according to a survey released Monday by Real Time Big Data. The polling institute interviewed 1,600 voters between March 20 and 21, finding two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat: Dr. Daniel of the PSB and Hana Ghassan of the MDB, each drawing 26 percent support in the first scenario tested and 29 and 28 percent respectively in a second. The margin between them falls within the survey's two-percentage-point error range, making any claim of a leader premature.
What stands out most starkly is how little the electorate has yet decided. When asked without candidate names presented—the spontaneous measure—67 percent of respondents said they did not know or did not answer. Dr. Daniel led that unprompted question with just 7 percent, followed by the sitting governor Helder Barbalho and Delegado Éder Mauro of the PL, each at 5 percent, and Ghassan at 4 percent. The field remains genuinely unsettled, with months of campaigning still ahead.
In head-to-head runoff simulations, the two frontrunners maintain their competitive positioning. Should the race narrow to Dr. Daniel versus Ghassan, Daniel edges ahead 35 to 32 percent. More telling are their matchups against Mário Couto of the PL: Daniel defeats him 39 to 23 percent, while Ghassan prevails 38 to 22 percent. Both candidates appear positioned to beat the third-place contender in a general election, though neither has yet secured a clear mandate.
The survey also measured voter sentiment toward the current administration. Governor Helder Barbalho, who cannot seek reelection due to term limits, maintains substantial approval. Seventy-nine percent of respondents approve of his performance, while 55 percent rate his management as good or excellent. Only 15 percent judge it poor or very poor. This reservoir of goodwill may benefit the MDB's slate, though it remains unclear whether it will translate directly to Ghassan's candidacy or whether voters will seek change after years of the same party in power.
For the state's two Senate seats, Barbalho himself emerges as the most preferred candidate, drawing 40 percent support when voters could name up to two choices. Delegado Éder Mauro follows at 16 percent, with Paulo Rocha of the PT, Celso Sabino, and Chicão of the MDB each at 9 percent. The former governor's strength in this race underscores the MDB's organizational advantage in the state, even as the gubernatorial contest remains genuinely competitive.
The survey was conducted by Real Time Big Data itself and carries a 95 percent confidence level. With two years until the election and the electorate still largely undecided, the numbers offer a snapshot of this moment rather than a prediction. The campaign infrastructure, candidate visibility, and the shape of national politics between now and 2026 will all move these numbers substantially. For now, Pará's gubernatorial race belongs to no one.
Notable Quotes
Barbalho maintains 79 percent approval while 55 percent rate his management as good or excellent— Real Time Big Data survey results
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a two-point gap between Daniel and Ghassan matter when two-thirds of voters haven't made up their minds?
It doesn't, really—not yet. The survey is telling us the race is competitive among the small slice of voters paying attention. The real story is how much room there is for movement.
So Barbalho's 79 percent approval—does that help Ghassan or hurt her?
That's the tension. High approval usually lifts the party in power, but voters sometimes want change anyway. Ghassan has to decide whether to run as his successor or as something different.
Why is Barbalho so strong in the Senate race if the MDB is supposedly competitive in the governor's race?
Name recognition and proven performance. He's been governor. The Senate candidates are mostly unknowns. It's easier to approve of someone you know than to commit to someone new.
What does 67 percent undecided actually mean for the campaign ahead?
It means the race is genuinely open. Whoever builds the better ground game, whoever defines their opponent first, whoever connects with voters on something that matters—that's who wins. The numbers today are almost irrelevant.
Is there a third candidate who could break through?
Mário Couto is running third, but both frontrunners beat him in runoff scenarios. Paulo Rocha of the PT is in single digits. The structure of the race seems to be settling into two, not three.