He leads the same way in every scenario tested
Mais de um ano antes das eleições de 2026, o estado de Goiás já esboça os contornos de uma disputa que reflete tensões mais amplas entre continuidade e renovação política. Daniel Vilela, do MDB, emerge como o nome mais consolidado na corrida ao governo estadual, carregando não apenas vantagem numérica, mas também o menor índice de rejeição entre os principais candidatos — sinal de que sua liderança é construída sobre aceitação, não apenas sobre ausência de alternativas. O governador Ronaldo Caiado, impedido de concorrer pela limitação de mandatos, deixa para trás uma aprovação de 82%, um legado que poderá moldar o apetite do eleitorado por continuidade ou ruptura nos meses que virão.
- Vilela lidera com folga tanto na lembrança espontânea quanto nas simulações com lista completa, abrindo vantagem de dez pontos percentuais sobre Perillo em todos os cenários testados.
- Nos duelos de segundo turno, Vilela supera 45% contra todos os adversários simulados, enquanto nenhum rival consegue ultrapassar a barreira dos 30% — uma assimetria que sugere dificuldade real de consolidação para a oposição.
- A rejeição elevada de Accorsi e Perillo — ambos com 40% de eleitores que recusam apoiá-los — contrasta com os 24% de Vilela, revelando um campo minado para quem tenta crescer sem alienar.
- Caiado encerra seu mandato com 82% de aprovação, mas a impossibilidade de reeleição abre uma disputa sobre quem herda — ou perde — esse capital político.
- No Senado, a fragmentação é a marca: nenhum candidato domina, e as duas vagas permanecem genuinamente abertas numa disputa com ao menos quatro nomes relevantes.
Uma pesquisa da Real Time Big Data, realizada nos dias 16 e 17 de março com 1.500 entrevistados e margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais, oferece o retrato mais nítido até agora da corrida ao governo de Goiás em 2026. O que os números revelam é uma disputa que já tem um favorito claro.
Daniel Vilela, do MDB, lidera tanto na menção espontânea — com 9%, mais que o dobro dos 4% de Marconi Perillo, do PSDB — quanto nos cenários estimulados, onde oscila entre 34% e 36%, enquanto Perillo permanece estagnado entre 24% e 26%. A vantagem de dez pontos se mantém estável independentemente da composição do campo de candidatos.
Nas simulações de segundo turno, Vilela supera todos os adversários com conforto: vence Adriana Accorsi, do PT, por 52% a 23%; Perillo por 47% a 29%; e Wilder Moraes, do PL, por 49% a 25%. Em nenhum cenário ele fica abaixo de 45%, enquanto nenhum rival chega a 30%. Mais revelador ainda é o índice de rejeição: Accorsi e Perillo são recusados por 40% dos eleitores, ao passo que Vilela registra apenas 24% — o menor do campo. Sua liderança parece assentada em aceitação genuína, não em falta de opção.
O governador Ronaldo Caiado, impedido de concorrer por limitação de mandatos, encerra sua gestão com 82% de aprovação e 58% de avaliações ótimas ou boas. Esse capital político acumulado poderá influenciar como os eleitores ponderarão continuidade e mudança ao longo da campanha.
No Senado, onde Goiás elegerá dois representantes, o cenário é mais aberto. Gracinha Caiado, do União Brasil, lidera com 28%, seguida por Gustavo Gayer, do PL, com 18%, Zacarias Calil, do MDB, com 11%, e Alexandre Baldy, do PP, com 10%. Com os eleitores podendo citar até dois nomes, as duas vagas permanecem genuinamente disputadas — um contraste nítido com a solidez da posição de Vilela no pleito estadual.
A poll released this week by Real Time Big Data offers the clearest picture yet of how Goiás voters are thinking about the 2026 gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted March 16 and 17, interviewed 1,500 people and carries a margin of error of two percentage points. What emerges is a race already taking shape around a clear frontrunner.
Daniel Vilela of the MDB holds a commanding position. In the spontaneous portion of the survey—where voters name candidates without prompting—Vilela drew 9 percent, more than double the 4 percent for his nearest competitor, Marconi Perillo of the PSDB. When the institute presented voters with full candidate slates, Vilela's advantage only widened. Across three different stimulated scenarios, he consistently polled between 34 and 36 percent, while Perillo remained stuck in the 24 to 26 percent range. That ten-point spread holds steady regardless of which other candidates are included in the matchup.
The polling also tested how Vilela would perform in a runoff against each of his main rivals. Against Adriana Accorsi of the PT, he leads 52 to 23 percent. Against Perillo, the margin narrows slightly to 47 to 29 percent. Against Wilder Moraes of the PL, Vilela takes 49 to 25 percent. In each scenario, he clears 45 percent while his opponent struggles to reach 30. The second-round simulations suggest that barring a significant shift in the race, Vilela would enter any runoff as the clear favorite.
Rejectability—the measure of voters who say they would never support a candidate—tells a different story. Accorsi and Perillo both face rejection from 40 percent of voters, the highest figures in the field. Vilela's rejection rate stands at 24 percent, the lowest among major candidates. This gap between his strength and his opponents' weakness suggests his lead rests on something more than mere name recognition; voters appear actively willing to support him rather than simply defaulting to him by elimination.
The current governor, Ronaldo Caiado, cannot run again due to term limits, but his standing remains robust. Eighty-two percent of voters approve of his administration, and 58 percent rate it as good or excellent. Only 13 percent call it poor or very poor. This reservoir of goodwill toward the outgoing administration could matter for how voters think about continuity and change as the race develops.
On the Senate side, where Goiás will elect two senators, the picture is more fragmented. Gracinha Caiado of União Brasil leads with 28 percent, followed by Gustavo Gayer of the PL at 18 percent. Zacarias Calil of the MDB draws 11 percent, and Alexandre Baldy of the PP gets 10 percent. The Senate race appears genuinely open, with no candidate commanding the kind of dominance Vilela holds in the gubernatorial contest. Voters could cite up to two candidates, and the spread suggests the two Senate seats remain genuinely competitive.
The poll was commissioned by Real Time Big Data itself and registered with Brazil's electoral authority under number GO-07569/2026. As with all surveys, the methodology matters: sample composition, interview method, and question wording all shape results. This snapshot captures voter sentiment in mid-March 2026, a moment when the race is still forming but the contours are becoming visible.
Citas Notables
Vilela's rejection rate stands at 24 percent, the lowest among major candidates, while Accorsi and Perillo each face rejection from 40 percent of voters— Real Time Big Data poll findings
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a ten-point lead matter this far out from an election?
Because it's consistent. Vilela isn't winning in one scenario and losing in another. He leads the same way whether voters are naming candidates unprompted or choosing from a full slate. That stability suggests real support, not just noise.
But his rejection rate is only 24 percent. Doesn't that mean three-quarters of voters could still turn against him?
True, but look at his opponents. Forty percent of voters say they'd never vote for Perillo or Accorsi. Vilela's lower rejection gives him more room to grow. He's not just ahead—he's ahead with fewer people actively opposed to him.
What does Caiado's 82 percent approval actually tell us about the race?
It tells us the outgoing administration is popular, which usually helps the party in power. But Vilela is MDB, and Caiado is PSD. They're not the same party, so that goodwill doesn't automatically transfer to him.
So why is Vilela leading if he's not the incumbent's party?
He's winning on his own terms, apparently. The poll doesn't explain why voters prefer him, only that they do. That's what makes this interesting—it's not a coronation of the sitting governor's successor.
The Senate race looks completely different. Why?
Fewer voters know Senate candidates as well as they know gubernatorial candidates. And there are more of them running. The governor's race has crystallized around a few names. The Senate is still wide open.
What should we watch for between now and the election?
Whether Vilela's lead holds as the race gets more attention, whether Perillo can close the gap, and whether Caiado's popularity actually helps or hurts the other candidates. Right now it's a snapshot. Elections are about movement.