Two-thirds of voters haven't decided. Tarcísio's lead is real, but the race is far from written.
Em São Paulo, estado que há décadas funciona como termômetro do poder nacional, uma pesquisa de intenção de voto para 2026 revela um governador em posição de força, mas ainda distante da inevitabilidade. Tarcísio de Freitas lidera todos os cenários testados pelo Real Time Big Data, com margens expressivas nos simulacros de segundo turno — mas 65% dos eleitores ainda não escolheram ninguém, e quase um terço do eleitorado já decidiu que não votará nele. A corrida está aberta, e o terreno será moldado por quem souber falar sobre segurança e saúde, as duas grandes preocupações do paulistano.
- Tarcísio de Freitas domina todos os cenários testados, alcançando entre 50% e 55% nas simulações de segundo turno contra Haddad, Alckmin, Tebet e França — uma vantagem que não vacila independentemente do adversário.
- Apesar da liderança, 29% do eleitorado rejeita o governador categoricamente, e 41% dos que o conhecem afirmam que jamais votariam nele, revelando um teto real para seu crescimento.
- Fernando Haddad enfrenta o maior obstáculo: 35% de rejeição total, o mais alto entre os nomes testados, o que limita severamente sua capacidade de ampliar a base no estado mais populoso do país.
- Com 65% dos eleitores ainda sem candidato definido na pesquisa espontânea, a disputa permanece em aberto — e segurança (28%) e saúde (26%) emergem como os temas que poderão definir quem conquista esses votos.
- A pesquisa, realizada com 2.000 pessoas entre 6 e 7 de março, registrada sob o número SP-00705/2026, oferece um retrato de vantagem consolidada, mas não de vitória assegurada.
O instituto Real Time Big Data divulgou na segunda-feira os primeiros números robustos da corrida ao governo de São Paulo em 2026, e o retrato é de consistência: Tarcísio de Freitas, governador em exercício pelo Republicanos, lidera em todos os cenários testados.
Na pesquisa espontânea, onde o eleitor nomeia seu candidato sem estímulo, o campo permanece indefinido. Tarcísio aparece com 16%, Haddad com 5%, e nomes como Alckmin, Boulos, Tebet e França somam 1% cada. O dado mais revelador é o dos 65% que ainda não sabem em quem votar — a disputa está longe de ser decidida.
Nos cenários estimulados, a vantagem de Tarcísio se aprofunda. Contra Haddad em campo com cinco candidatos, ele marca 47% a 31%. Contra Alckmin, 44% a 33%. Frente a Tebet, abre 49% a 21%. Nos simulacros de segundo turno, os números ficam ainda mais expressivos: 50% a 37% sobre Haddad, 55% a 29% sobre Tebet, 55% a 30% sobre França.
Os temas que mais preocupam os eleitores na escolha do próximo governador são segurança (28%) e saúde (26%) — uma hierarquia que sinaliza onde as campanhas precisarão se posicionar.
Os índices de rejeição oferecem o contraponto necessário. Haddad lidera esse ranking com 35% de rejeição total. Tarcísio e Alckmin empatam em 29%. Tebet registra o menor índice entre os principais nomes, com 22%. Entre os eleitores que conhecem Tarcísio, 35% votariam nele com certeza, 20% o consideram uma possibilidade — mas 41% o descartam completamente. O governador tem força, mas também tem teto.
The Real Time Big Data polling institute released fresh numbers on Monday tracking voter intentions for São Paulo's 2026 gubernatorial race, and the picture it paints is remarkably consistent: Tarcísio de Freitas, the sitting governor seeking reelection on the Republican ticket, commands the field across every scenario the pollsters tested.
The institute conducted two types of surveys. In the spontaneous measure—where voters name their choice without prompting—the field remains largely unsettled. Tarcísio drew 16 percent, while Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party managed 5 percent. The rest scattered: Geraldo Alckmin, Guilherme Boulos, Kim Kataguiri, Simone Tebet, and Márcio França each claimed just 1 percent. The telling number was the 65 percent who said they didn't know. This is a race still being written.
But when the pollsters presented names and asked voters to choose among them, Tarcísio's advantage sharpened dramatically. In a five-candidate field that included Haddad and Kim Kataguiri, Tarcísio reached 47 percent against Haddad's 31. Tested against Alckmin, he drew 44 percent to Alckmin's 33. Against Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement, the gap widened to 49 percent versus 21. Márcio França saw similar results: Tarcísio at 48, França at 23. Even in a crowded scenario pairing Haddad with Guilherme Derrite of the Progressive Party, Tarcísio still led at 43 percent.
The runoff simulations—the head-to-head matchups that would occur if no candidate won an outright majority in the first round—showed Tarcísio's position hardening further. Against Haddad, he polled at 50 percent to 37. Against Alckmin, 48 to 39. Against Tebet, the margin expanded to 55 to 29. Against França, it was 55 to 30. These are commanding leads in a state that has long been a political battleground.
Voters were also asked what issues matter most to them in choosing their next governor. Security topped the list at 28 percent, followed closely by health at 26 percent. Transportation, education, job creation, and infrastructure each drew single-digit shares of concern. This hierarchy matters: it shapes which candidate's message might resonate, and which vulnerabilities might be exploited.
The rejection numbers offer a counterweight to Tarcísio's strength. Haddad faces the steepest wall, with 35 percent saying they would never vote for him under any circumstances. But Tarcísio himself registers 29 percent rejection—the same as Alckmin—suggesting his support, while broad, has a ceiling. Tebet sits at 22 percent rejection, the lowest among major figures tested.
When voters were asked whether they would definitely vote for each candidate, might consider it, or would never support them, Tarcísio's coalition became visible in its composition. Thirty-five percent said they would vote for him with certainty, and another 20 percent saw him as a possibility. But 41 percent knew him and rejected him outright. Haddad's numbers were nearly inverted: 22 percent certain, 29 percent possible, 42 percent firm no. Alckmin occupied middle ground: 19 percent certain, 39 percent possible, 38 percent no.
The poll surveyed 2,000 people on March 6 and 7, carrying a margin of error of 2 percentage points either direction and a 95 percent confidence level. It was registered with Brazil's electoral authority under number SP-00705/2026. What emerges is a snapshot of a race where the incumbent has built substantial but not insurmountable advantages—a state where the shape of the ballot itself will matter, where undecided voters still outnumber committed ones, and where the issues voters care about most may yet reshape the terrain.
Notable Quotes
Voters prioritize security at 28% and health at 26% as the most important issues for the next governor— Real Time Big Data poll findings
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that Tarcísio leads in the spontaneous measure at only 16 percent when two-thirds don't know?
Because that's the real state of the race right now. Most voters haven't made up their minds. Tarcísio's 16 percent is his floor—people who know him and are already with him. The question is what happens to the 65 percent as the campaign unfolds.
But when you show people names, he jumps to 47, 48, 49 percent. That's a huge swing. What's happening there?
You're seeing the effect of name recognition and the structure of choice. When voters see a ballot with actual options, they're forced to decide. Tarcísio benefits because he's the sitting governor—people know him, and in a crowded field, that familiarity counts. But notice Haddad jumps from 5 to 31 percent in the same scenario. The numbers are elastic.
The rejection numbers are interesting. Tarcísio has 29 percent who say they'd never vote for him. That's the same as Alckmin. Why isn't that a bigger problem for him?
Because he also has 35 percent who say they'd vote for him with certainty. That's the highest floor in the race. Rejection matters, but so does intensity of support. Tarcísio has both committed voters and reach into the undecided middle.
Security and health dominate what voters care about. Does that help or hurt Tarcísio?
That depends on the narrative each candidate builds. Tarcísio is the incumbent, so voters will judge him on his record on those issues. If he can claim credit, it helps him. If opponents can argue he's failed, it becomes his vulnerability. Right now the poll just tells us what voters want to hear about—not who they trust to deliver.
What strikes you most about these numbers?
The stability. Tarcísio wins every matchup, every scenario. That's not noise—that's a real structural advantage. But it's also early, the field is still forming, and two-thirds of voters haven't decided. The race is his to lose, but it's not over.
So what happens next?
The undecided voters move. The campaign message takes shape. Opponents try to consolidate their bases and find an opening. And we'll see if Tarcísio's 29 percent rejection rate becomes a ceiling he can't break through, or if he can expand beyond it.