Iran war fuel shocks accelerate solar boom across energy-hungry Asia

The Philippines is in an energy emergency, and it is showing up first in the electricity bills. When Jaime Quemado opened his power statement after the Iran war began in late February, the number shocked him—a significant jump from what he'd paid the month before. He was not alone. Across the archipelago, consumers were watching fuel costs climb as the conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that funnels much of the Middle Eastern oil and liquefied natural gas the country depends on. In the first two months of the war, the price spikes cost Filipino consumers, businesses, and public institutions more than $600 million. Airlines began weighing fuel rationing. Public transport workers received cash handouts. Government offices shifted to four-day work weeks and were instructed to keep air conditioning no lower than 24 degrees Celsius. The crisis was real and immediate.

But something unexpected happened alongside the panic. Consumers started looking up. A survey of twenty local solar companies found that weekly rooftop installations jumped 70 percent and customer inquiries surged sixfold once the conflict began. By mid-April, companies were fielding more than 450 inquiries per month, compared to around 115 in February. Jaime Quemado was among them. He installed an 18-kilowatt rooftop system with 28 panels—Chinese-made, from a manufacturer called LONGi—and four batteries from a Suzhou-based company. The solar industry, which had been nascent and struggling for traction, suddenly had momentum. "This crisis is a driving force for solar," said Brenda Valerio of the nonprofit New Energy Nexus, which conducted the survey. "People want solar and people want solar now."

The Philippines was not alone in this pivot. Across Southeast Asia, governments and households were reconsidering their energy futures. Indonesia set an ambitious target to install 100 gigawatts of rooftop solar by 2034, a leap from its current 1.3 gigawatts. Vietnam announced plans to install rooftop solar on at least 10 percent of public offices and homes by 2030. Thailand was considering new policies to increase the amount of surplus energy the national grid could buy from rooftop systems. In the United States and Europe, online marketplaces and utility companies reported jumps in solar sales and inquiries. The war had created a moment when policymakers and ordinary people were suddenly willing to look at alternatives they might have dismissed before.

What made rooftop solar particularly attractive was its accessibility. Unlike an electric vehicle or a heat pump—both far more expensive—a rooftop system was something a household could actually afford and install relatively quickly. "Solar is definitely one of the easiest things people can do" to cut monthly electricity bills, said Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University. For the Philippines, where solar is abundant and fuel costs were spiraling, it made immediate economic sense. "Clean technology, like rooftop solar, is quickly scalable because it is accessible to all of us," said Marissa Cerezo of the Department of Energy's Renewable Energy Management Bureau. The industry leaders felt the shift. Richmond Reyes, president of EcoSolutions, said the war had "helped the solar industry really get its footing." Joel Remegio of the Association of Solar Installers of the Philippines called the energy crisis a "game changer" for the nation's nascent industry.

China, the world's largest provider of solar technology, was positioned to capture most of this demand. In March, Chinese clean technology exports hit a record 68 gigawatts—equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity and double the February output. Exports to Africa jumped 176 percent from February to March, with rapid growth in Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Exports to other Asian nations doubled to 39 gigawatts, including major increases to India, Malaysia, and Laos. The timing was fortuitous. Chinese companies had been sitting on an oversupply of solar panels and equipment before the war began, putting them in a prime position to capitalize on the sudden surge in demand. "China really is, by far, leading this race," said Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute's China Climate Hub, calling the renewable industry "a one-man show." Li noted that Chinese companies were already so far ahead in the clean tech sector that the current crisis would likely help them cement their dominance for years to come.

What the Iran war had done, in effect, was compress years of energy transition into months. The conflict had made the cost of fossil fuels impossible to ignore and had made the alternatives suddenly affordable and necessary. Whether this acceleration would persist depended on whether world leaders would commit to electrification and move away from fossil fuels entirely, according to analysts. But for now, in the Philippines and across Asia, the crisis had opened a door that had been closed before—and people were walking through it.