We had no institutional backing. But what we did have was a vision.
In the sprawling civic theater of Los Angeles, a race that once seemed settled is quietly being rewritten by the unhurried arithmetic of mail-in ballots. Reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who entered election night with a commanding lead over City Councilwoman Nithya Raman, now holds only a single percentage point advantage — a reminder that in California's deliberate counting process, the first voice heard is rarely the last. The contest for the second runoff spot against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has become a study in how democratic outcomes resist premature conclusions, and how a self-described long shot can find her footing in the final count.
- A six-point election-night lead for Spencer Pratt has collapsed to just one point as each new batch of Los Angeles County ballots chips steadily away at his margin.
- The pattern is familiar to California election watchers: late mail-in ballots consistently skew toward different voter priorities than those cast on election day, and they are reshaping this race in real time.
- Nithya Raman — who entered the race with no institutional backing and little name recognition — is now within striking distance of advancing to a November runoff she once called a long shot.
- Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has already secured her runoff spot, meaning the central suspense is whether Pratt or Raman will face her in November under California's top-two primary system.
- With counting expected to continue through next week and results released in rolling batches, the race remains unresolved — and the trajectory currently favors the challenger.
The Los Angeles mayoral primary has transformed from an apparent foregone conclusion into one of the city's more suspenseful counting dramas. Spencer Pratt, the reality television personality who entered election night riding what looked like commanding momentum, now leads City Councilwoman Nithya Raman by just one percentage point — down from nearly six points only two days earlier. With 78% of ballots counted as of Saturday evening, Pratt held 27.3% to Raman's 26.2%, and the gap has narrowed with every new release from the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder.
The shift follows a well-documented California pattern: mail-in ballots, which arrive in waves after election day, tend to reflect different demographic priorities than votes cast in person. Analysts had long predicted the race would be close — a late May poll showed Bass, Raman, and Pratt separated by just a few points within the margin of error — though Pratt's early lead obscured just how tight things would become.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has already secured her place in the November runoff. Under California's top-two primary system, only the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party, meaning either Pratt or Raman will face her in the general election. Raman, a Democrat who entered the race late and without institutional support, told supporters that what she lacked in backing she made up for in vision. Pratt, meanwhile, had spoken on election night with the confidence of someone who believed the question was already settled.
Counting will continue through the coming week, with Los Angeles County releasing its next batch of results Sunday by 5 p.m. California law permits up to 30 days of provisional counting, and mail-in ballots postmarked by election day must be accepted if received within seven days. If the current trajectory holds, Raman's share will keep rising and Pratt's will keep falling — though whether she ultimately overtakes him remains the race's defining open question.
The Los Angeles mayoral race has tightened dramatically since polls closed on Tuesday. Reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who entered election night with what appeared to be commanding momentum, now clings to a lead of just one percentage point over City Councilwoman Nithya Raman. With 78% of ballots counted as of Saturday evening, Pratt held 27.3% to Raman's 26.2%—a collapse from the nearly six-point advantage he had maintained only two days earlier.
The shift reflects a pattern that election analysts have come to expect from California's mail-in voting system: late-arriving ballots, which tend to skew toward different demographics and priorities than those cast on election day, are reshaping the race in real time. Pratt's vote share has declined with each new batch of counted ballots released by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder. The question now is not whether his lead will continue to erode, but whether it will disappear entirely before counting concludes.
Incumbent Democratic Mayor Karen Bass has already secured her spot in the November runoff, a result projected earlier in the week. Under California's top-two primary system, the state advances only the two candidates with the highest vote totals to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. This means either Raman or Pratt will face Bass in November, depending on who finishes second. Raman, a Democrat like Bass, entered the race as what she called a "long shot," announcing her candidacy after Bass and Pratt had already declared. She had no institutional backing and was virtually unknown to most voters when she began her campaign. Yet her message—a vision for Los Angeles built from the ground up—has apparently resonated with voters returning ballots in the final days of counting.
Pratt's confidence on election night now reads as premature. He told supporters he was "ready for whatever god puts in front of me" and expressed that he felt "very confident" about facing Bass in November. He had dismissed the incumbent as "not a candidate that I'm too concerned about." Raman, by contrast, spoke to her supporters about the improbability of her journey. "No one knew who I was," she said. "We had no institutional backing. But what we did have was a vision for Los Angeles."
Election analysts had predicted the race would be tight. A poll conducted on May 28 showed Bass with 26% support among likely voters, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%—a statistical dead heat given the poll's margin of error of around three percentage points. The actual results have borne out that prediction, though not in the way Pratt's early lead suggested they would.
The counting process will continue through the coming week. California law allows counties 30 days to count ballots on a provisional basis, and mail-in votes postmarked by election day must be counted if received within seven days. Los Angeles County expects to release its next batch of results on Sunday by 5 p.m., with additional updates from other major population centers arriving throughout the following week. Each new release could shift the race further. If the pattern holds, Raman's share of the vote should continue to grow, and Pratt's should continue to shrink. Whether that trajectory carries her past him remains the central suspense of the Los Angeles mayoral primary.
Citas Notables
No one knew who I was; I was the last to enter this race. We had no institutional backing. But what we did have was a vision for Los Angeles.— Nithya Raman, speaking to supporters on election night
I'm ready for whatever god puts in front of me. I feel very confident.— Spencer Pratt, speaking to supporters on election night
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
How did Pratt build such a substantial lead if the polling showed the race was essentially tied?
Election day voters and mail-in voters are different populations. Pratt apparently performed much better with people who showed up to vote in person on Tuesday. The mail-in ballots—which arrive over several days—have favored Raman.
Is there something about mail-in voters that makes them systematically different?
They tend to be older, more deliberate, and more likely to research candidates beyond initial name recognition. Pratt is a television personality; that gets attention fast. But sustained attention to a candidate's actual platform takes time.
Raman called her campaign a "long shot." Did she actually believe she could win?
She was the last to enter the race with no major backing. But she had a coherent message about reimagining Los Angeles. Sometimes that's enough to move people who are still deciding in the final days.
What does Pratt's statement about "god's plan" suggest about how he was thinking?
He was confident enough to frame losing as divine will. That kind of certainty can look foolish very quickly when the votes start moving against you.
Is there a moment where Raman actually overtakes him, or does this stay close?
We won't know until the final ballots are counted. But the trajectory is clear. If she passes him, it happens in the next week or so, as mail-in ballots continue to arrive and get processed.