A continent seeking to talk with Russia while watching America with new wariness
In the spring of 2026, a Portuguese survey captured a continent in quiet reorientation — a majority reaching toward renewed dialogue with Moscow even as a growing share of citizens cast a wary eye westward, toward Washington. The United States, once the unquestioned anchor of European security, now ranks as the second-greatest perceived threat among Portuguese respondents, surpassing Iran and China, a shift driven largely by younger generations who have grown up in the shadow of an unpredictable Atlantic alliance. Portugal's story is Europe's story: a search for stability in a world where old certainties no longer hold, and where the compass of security is being quietly, irreversibly recalibrated.
- Sixty-three percent of Portuguese voters support reopening diplomatic channels with Russia, even as the wounds of Ukraine remain unhealed — a pragmatic hunger for engagement that the government itself has endorsed.
- The United States has crossed a threshold in European perception: 26 percent of Portuguese now name America as a security threat, a figure that dwarfs concerns about China or Iran and signals something deeper than policy disagreement.
- A generational fault line runs through the data — among voters under 35, the US outranks Russia as the primary threat, while those over 65 still orient their fears eastward, toward Moscow.
- NATO retains broad legitimacy at 73 percent approval, yet 39 percent of respondents now consider an American withdrawal from the alliance likely, a possibility that would have seemed unthinkable a decade ago.
- The far-right and the communist left occupy opposite poles — Liberal Initiative voters back NATO at 92 percent while Communist supporters hover at 47 percent — revealing how the alliance has become a mirror of Portugal's own political fractures.
A May 2026 survey of Portuguese voters paints a portrait of a society navigating two competing instincts: a willingness to rebuild bridges with Russia, and a deepening unease about the direction of American power. Sixty-three percent support resuming EU-Russia diplomatic contact, a position shared by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro and Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel. Only 22 percent oppose renewed engagement, even including the possibility of Russia returning to the G20.
Yet the survey's more striking finding concerns the United States. Twenty-six percent of respondents now identify America as a threat to European security — second only to Russia at 43 percent, and far ahead of Iran, Israel, or China. The shift is most pronounced among younger voters: those aged 18 to 34 name the US as the primary threat more often than they name Russia, a near-inversion of the view held by those over 65, who still orient their fears toward Moscow by a wide margin. Left-wing parties show the sharpest skepticism of Washington, with majorities among Communist and Ecologist supporters identifying the US as the principal danger.
Portugal's commitment to NATO has not collapsed — 73 percent view membership positively, and 70 percent believe an American withdrawal would harm European security. But 39 percent now consider such a withdrawal likely given Trump's public posture toward the alliance, a figure that would have seemed implausible not long ago. The survey, conducted among 505 respondents with a margin of error of 4.4 points, captures a generation of younger Portuguese for whom the Atlantic alliance no longer feels like an obvious or permanent anchor — and a continent quietly learning to look in multiple directions at once.
A survey of Portuguese voters released in May reveals a population caught between two competing instincts: a desire to rebuild diplomatic channels with Russia, and a deepening anxiety about American power. The numbers tell a story of shifting European sentiment in the age of Trump.
Sixty-three percent of those polled support reopening dialogue with Moscow, a position that aligns Portugal's government—Prime Minister Luís Montenegro and Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel have both advocated for it—with the views of the majority. This appetite for engagement persists even as the memory of Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains fresh. Only 22 percent oppose the idea of renewed diplomatic contact, including the possibility of Russia rejoining the G20 table.
Yet the same survey reveals something more striking: the United States has emerged as Europe's second-greatest security threat, cited by 26 percent of respondents. Russia still ranks first at 43 percent, but the American share dwarfs concerns about Iran (13 percent), Israel (6 percent), or China (4 percent). This reflects a growing unease with Trump administration foreign policy and its approach to NATO allies.
The generational divide is sharp. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 37 percent name the United States as the primary threat to European security, while only 33 percent point to Russia. For those over 65, the picture inverts: 56 percent cite Russia as the main danger, compared to just 18 percent who worry about America. On the political spectrum, left-wing voters show the highest skepticism of Washington. Fifty-nine percent of Communist Democratic Union supporters, 58 percent of the Ecologist Party, and 38 percent of the Left Bloc identify the United States as the principal threat.
Despite these concerns, Portuguese commitment to NATO remains solid. Seventy-three percent view Portugal's alliance membership positively or very positively. Support is strongest among older voters (77 percent) and weakest among the youngest cohort (68 percent). The far-right Liberal Initiative shows the highest backing at 92 percent, while the Communist Party registers only 47 percent.
But cracks are visible. Seventy percent of respondents say an American withdrawal from NATO would damage European security. Yet 39 percent now consider such a withdrawal likely or very likely, given Trump's public threats. A majority of 52 percent still regards the scenario as improbable—except among Chega supporters, where 48 percent see it as probable and only 43 percent dismiss it.
The survey, conducted online between May 18 and 19 among 505 respondents, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It captures a moment of European reorientation: a continent seeking to talk again with Russia while watching America with new wariness, and a generation of younger Portuguese for whom the Atlantic alliance no longer feels like the obvious anchor of security.
Citas Notables
Portuguese government position supports reopening dialogue with Russia, aligned with majority public opinion— Prime Minister Luís Montenegro and Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why would a majority of Portuguese support reopening talks with Russia when the Ukraine war is still unresolved?
Because diplomacy and security threat assessment aren't the same thing. People can believe dialogue is necessary without thinking Russia is harmless. They're looking for a off-ramp.
But the real surprise here is the US ranking second. How does that happen in a NATO country?
Trump's rhetoric about NATO, his unpredictability, his transactional view of alliances—it's made people wonder if the security guarantee they've relied on is actually reliable. That's a different kind of threat than a distant adversary.
The age gap is enormous. Why do young people see America as a bigger threat than Russia?
They didn't grow up with the Cold War. Russia feels historical. America feels present—its policies, its elections, its decisions about NATO directly affect their future. And they're skeptical of American power in ways their grandparents weren't.
Does 73 percent support for NATO contradict the anxiety about America?
Not really. People can value the alliance while doubting whether it will hold. They're saying NATO matters, but they're also hedging their bets, wondering if they need other relationships.
What does it mean that 39 percent think the US might leave NATO?
It means the threat feels real enough that people are mentally preparing for it. That's a shift. A few years ago, that would have seemed absurd to most Europeans.