In a year shaped by tariff brinkmanship and the gravitational pull of midterm elections, portfolio manager Darren Sissons is reading political turbulence not as a reason to retreat, but as a map toward where capital will flow next. From Stockholm to Atlanta to Montreal, he finds companies whose durability rests not on momentum but on the quiet complexity of what they do — and how hard it would be for anyone else to do it as well. The oldest lesson in markets reasserts itself: volatility is not the enemy of the long-term investor; it is, more often, the invitation.
Bnn Bloomberg
· Feb 25, 2026
· economy
· 3 min read
High
Sourcing: Characterized
Portfolio Manager Sissons Picks Atlas Copco, ADP, CN Rail Amid Tariff Volatility
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Politics & Governance
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Bias & Framing
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Geopolitical Impact
🌎
U.S. tariff escalation and fiscal stimulus drive geopolitical uncertainty, with trade negotiations reshaping North American and global economic alignments in 2026.
Escalation Risk
moderate
Confidence
MED
United States
Canada
European Union
China
Asia-Pacific
Mexico
U.S. asserting economic leverage through unilateral tariffs despite judicial opposition, prompting defensive fiscal stimulus globally. Canada faces vulnerability in USMCA renegotiations. Europe strengthens via defense spending amid U.S. trade pressure. China's economic passivity reduces its regional influence. Republican domestic politics driving protectionist trade policy.
Similar to 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariff cycle triggering retaliatory measures and trade fragmentation, though modern interconnected supply chains and institutional constraints limit full-scale trade war escalation.
Economic Lens
📈
Portfolio manager recommends defensive industrial and logistics stocks amid tariff volatility, fiscal stimulus expectations, and geopolitical uncertainty heading into 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Market Signal
mixed
Confidence
MED
Industrial Manufacturing (Atlas Copco)
Business Services & HR Tech (ADP)
Transportation & Logistics (CN Rail)
Defense & Aerospace
Precious Metals & Commodities
Technology & Software
Consumers may face higher prices from 15% global tariffs offsetting any wage gains from fiscal stimulus; employment remains supported by defense spending and infrastructure investment, but tariff-driven inflation could erode purchasing power.
Expect continued fiscal stimulus spending to support markets despite tariff uncertainty; USMCA renegotiation in H1 2026 could trigger trade policy shifts; potential for increased defense budgets across NATO allies; regulatory focus on tariff impacts and inflation management.