Information stolen today could be exposed in ten years
En algún punto entre la promesa y el miedo, los gobiernos del mundo han comenzado a invertir miles de millones en una tecnología que aún no domina nadie. Google ha acortado el horizonte: para 2029, los ordenadores cuánticos podrían ser capaces de romper los sistemas criptográficos que protegen desde transacciones bancarias hasta secretos militares. Lo que durante décadas fue territorio de físicos teóricos se ha convertido en doctrina de seguridad nacional, y la carrera que se libra hoy no es solo tecnológica, sino sobre quién controlará los cimientos invisibles del poder global.
- Google ha fijado 2029 como fecha límite para la madurez cuántica, convirtiendo una amenaza abstracta en una cuenta regresiva de menos de 1.000 días para los sistemas criptográficos del mundo.
- China lidera la inversión con 15.000 millones de dólares bajo una estrategia estatal centralizada, mientras Estados Unidos moviliza 7.900 millones repartidos entre gigantes privados que compiten entre sí en lugar de coordinarse.
- El escenario 'cosecha ahora, descifra después' mantiene en vela a los servicios de inteligencia: datos cifrados robados hoy podrían quedar expuestos en una década cuando la potencia cuántica alcance escala industrial.
- Europa observa desde una posición conocida y incómoda: investigación de primer nivel pero financiación fragmentada, startups absorbidas por capital extranjero y una dependencia tecnológica que intenta corregir sin suficiente urgencia.
- El mercado cuántico crece al 30% anual y la inversión global casi se duplicó entre 2023 y 2024, pero detrás del entusiasmo económico late sobre todo el miedo a quedar rezagado en una revolución que podría redistribuir el poder mundial.
Google ha movido el horizonte. Para 2029, la compañía espera que los ordenadores cuánticos alcancen la madurez suficiente para comprometer los sistemas de cifrado que hoy protegen comunicaciones financieras, gubernamentales y militares en todo el planeta. El anuncio transformó lo que era una frontera científica lejana en una prioridad urgente de seguridad nacional, y los gobiernos han respondido volcando miles de millones en una carrera que apenas comprenden del todo.
La competencia tiene una geometría clara. China ha comprometido unos 15.000 millones de dólares en programas cuánticos públicos, frente a los 7.900 millones movilizados por Estados Unidos. Pero la diferencia no es solo de cifras: el modelo chino es centralizado, con el Estado, el ejército, las universidades y la industria alineados hacia un objetivo geopolítico común. El modelo americano descansa en gigantes privados como Google, IBM y Microsoft, cada uno siguiendo su propio camino. La coordinación importa cuando el premio es la dominación tecnológica.
Una amenaza concreta desvela a los responsables de seguridad: el esquema 'cosecha ahora, descifra después'. Adversarios podrían estar almacenando hoy datos cifrados interceptados, a la espera de que los ordenadores cuánticos del futuro sean capaces de romper esa protección. La información robada en 2026 podría quedar expuesta en 2036. Esto ha convertido la criptografía poscuántica en prioridad estratégica: Estados Unidos ya migra hacia nuevos estándares, y Europa intenta acelerar una respuesta coordinada para no depender de Washington ni de Pekín.
Europa ocupa, una vez más, una posición incómoda: instituciones de investigación de primer nivel y científicos destacados, pero problemas estructurales en financiación, escala industrial y retención de talento. Muchas startups europeas acaban absorbidas por capital extranjero o se trasladan a Estados Unidos en busca de mejores ecosistemas.
El ritmo de inversión global recuerda a burbujas tecnológicas anteriores, pero algo diferente subyace aquí. Los gobiernos no invierten solo por oportunidad futura; muchos lo hacen impulsados por el miedo a quedar atrás en una revolución que podría alterar el equilibrio de poder mundial. El físico Juan Ignacio Cirac ofrece una perspectiva más templada: la computación cuántica es un campo complejo que requiere tiempo, investigación sostenida y avances tecnológicos graduales. La realidad, probablemente, habita entre el entusiasmo desbordado y la alarma geopolítica.
Google has moved the deadline. In roughly 1,000 days—by 2029—the company expects quantum computers to mature enough to threaten the encryption systems that currently protect financial transactions, government communications, and military secrets across the planet. The announcement landed like a starting gun. What was once a distant scientific frontier has become an urgent matter of national security, and governments are responding by pouring billions into a race they barely understand.
The competition is real, and the stakes are structural. China has committed approximately $15 billion to public quantum technology programs, while the United States has mobilized roughly $7.9 billion. But the numbers tell only part of the story. China's approach is centralized—state, military, universities, and industry working toward a single geopolitical objective. The American model, by contrast, relies heavily on private giants like Google, IBM, and Microsoft, each pursuing their own path. Neither approach guarantees success, but the difference in coordination matters when the prize is technological dominance.
Quantum computing has already entered the national security doctrine of both superpowers. A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could crack many of the cryptographic systems protecting global communications today. The threat is not immediate, but it is plausible enough to reshape how governments think about technology investment. Europe, meanwhile, finds itself in a familiar position: home to world-class research institutions and leading scientists, yet struggling with structural problems in funding, industrial scaling, and talent retention. Many European startups end up absorbed by foreign capital or relocate to the United States in search of better financing and ecosystems.
One threat keeps security officials awake: harvest now, decrypt later. Adversaries could be collecting and storing encrypted data today, waiting for quantum computers powerful enough to break the encryption years from now. The information stolen in 2026 could be exposed in 2036. This possibility has made post-quantum cryptography—encryption resistant to quantum attacks—a strategic priority. The United States is already transitioning to new cryptographic standards. Europe is trying to accelerate a coordinated response, hoping not to depend entirely on Washington or Beijing for technological protection.
The economic scale of this competition explains some of the urgency. The quantum market could exceed $10 billion in annual revenue before 2026, with growth rates near 30 percent through 2030. Global investment in quantum technologies jumped from roughly $1.3 billion in 2023 to about $2 billion in 2024. In just the first quarter of 2025, $1.25 billion had already been deployed. The pace resembles earlier technology bubbles, but something different is happening here. Governments are not investing only for future opportunity; many are driven by fear of falling behind in a revolution that could shift the global balance of power.
Google's 2019 announcement of quantum supremacy—completing in 200 seconds a calculation that would take a classical supercomputer 10,000 years—had enormous symbolic weight. The company's director of quantum computing argues that the threshold has been crossed. The question is no longer whether useful applications will exist, but when they will reach industrial scale. The real challenge now is stabilizing systems, reducing errors, and building infrastructure capable of operating with thousands or millions of qubits.
The convergence with artificial intelligence has amplified interest further. Quantum and AI together could accelerate discovery of new materials, transform pharmaceutical design, optimize global logistics networks, and reshape climate research. But they could also widen the technological gap between regions capable of developing these capacities and those dependent on others. The physicist Juan Ignacio Cirac, who curated a recent issue of the journal TELOS on quantum inspiration, offers a measured perspective: quantum computing is a complex field requiring time, sustained research, and technological advances. It is not an immediate revolution, but a gradual process. The narrative around quantum technology has become powerful—governments, funds, and corporations project onto it expectations of transformation comparable to those once attached to the internet or artificial intelligence. The reality probably lies somewhere between the unbridled enthusiasm and the geopolitical alarm.
Citas Notables
Quantum computing is a complex field requiring time, sustained research, and technological advances. It is not an immediate revolution, but a gradual process.— Juan Ignacio Cirac, physicist and scientific curator
Europe needs to build true technological sovereignty to avoid dependence on Washington or Beijing.— Marta P. Estarellas, CEO of Qilimanjaro Quantum Tech
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Google's 2029 deadline matter so much? It's still three years away.
Because it collapses the timeline from speculation into strategy. If quantum computers can break encryption by 2029, then any sensitive data encrypted today could be vulnerable within a decade. Governments have to act now, not later.
But hasn't quantum computing been "five years away" for decades?
True. But this is different. Google has a working quantum computer. They're not promising the technology—they're saying when it becomes dangerous. That's a shift from hope to threat.
Why is China spending nearly twice what the US spends?
Because they're treating it like a war. The US approach is fragmented—Google, IBM, Microsoft each doing their own thing. China has unified the entire system: state, military, universities, industry. One goal. That coordination matters when you're racing.
What's the "harvest now, decrypt later" threat really about?
Imagine someone stealing your encrypted emails right now. They can't read them. But in 2036, when quantum computers exist, they decrypt everything. Your secrets from today become exposed tomorrow. That's the nightmare keeping security officials awake.
Can Europe catch up?
They have the scientists and the labs. What they lack is the money, the industrial base, and the ability to keep their talent from leaving. Too many European startups get bought by American companies or move to Silicon Valley for funding. It's a brain drain problem, not a brains problem.
Is this another tech bubble?
Maybe. But governments aren't investing because they think they'll get rich. They're investing because they're terrified of being left behind. That fear is real, even if some of the hype isn't.