Lula and Bolsonaro emerged in a dead heat on healing divisions
Com as eleições de outubro no horizonte, o Brasil contempla mais uma vez a tensão entre continuidade e ruptura que tem marcado sua democracia recente. Uma pesquisa divulgada nesta segunda-feira revela o presidente Lula sustentando vantagem expressiva sobre o senador Flávio Bolsonaro em todos os cenários testados, independentemente do candidato que o PSD venha a lançar. Os números sugerem um eleitorado que, embora confie majoritariamente no atual governo para questões sociais e econômicas, permanece profundamente dividido sobre quem seria capaz de costurar as feridas políticas do país.
- Lula lidera com folga — entre 39% e 40% — em todos os três cenários testados, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro oscila entre 30% e 32% e os candidatos do PSD não passam de dois dígitos.
- A vantagem do presidente se aprofunda nas questões sociais: 44% dos eleitores acreditam que Lula é o mais capaz de melhorar a vida dos mais pobres, contra apenas 17% para Bolsonaro.
- Na economia, a confiança em Lula (29%) supera a de Bolsonaro (20%), mas 13% dos entrevistados não veem em nenhum dos candidatos credenciais suficientes para o tema — sinal de ceticismo que pode mobilizar o voto.
- O único empate revela a ferida mais funda: na pergunta sobre quem melhor pode reconciliar o país, Lula e Bolsonaro estão tecnicamente empatados em 24% cada, expondo uma polarização que promete definir o tom da campanha.
Uma pesquisa do Real Time Big Data divulgada nesta segunda-feira mostra o presidente Lula com vantagem sólida sobre o senador Flávio Bolsonaro em todos os cenários de primeiro turno testados para outubro, independentemente de qual governador do PSD integre a disputa. Nos três cenários — com Ratinho Jr., Eduardo Leite ou Ronaldo Caiado como terceiro candidato —, Lula oscilou entre 39% e 40%, enquanto Bolsonaro ficou entre 30% e 32%. Os candidatos do PSD não ultrapassaram 10%, sugerindo que a polarização entre os dois principais nomes deixa pouco espaço para uma terceira via consolidada.
Nas dimensões temáticas, o presidente amplia sua vantagem. Em gestão econômica, 29% dos eleitores confiam em Lula contra 20% em Bolsonaro — mas chama atenção que 13% não vejam em nenhum deles capacidade suficiente para o tema. Na área social, o contraste é ainda mais marcante: 44% apontam Lula como o mais apto a melhorar as condições dos mais pobres, ante 17% para Bolsonaro.
Há, porém, um ponto de equilíbrio revelador. Quando perguntados sobre quem melhor poderia reduzir os conflitos políticos e reconciliar o país, Lula e Bolsonaro empataram em 24% cada. O dado é um lembrete de que, por mais expressiva que seja a liderança do presidente nas intenções de voto, o Brasil chega a outubro ainda profundamente dividido sobre sua própria capacidade de se reunificar. A pesquisa ouviu 2.000 eleitores entre os dias 6 e 7 de fevereiro, com margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais e nível de confiança de 95%.
A new poll released Monday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a commanding lead in first-round matchups for October's election, regardless of which candidate the centrist PSD party nominates. The Real Time Big Data survey tested three separate scenarios, each pairing Lula against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and a different PSD governor, and in every case the president emerged with a substantial advantage.
In the first scenario, featuring Paraná Governor Ratinho Jr., Lula captured 39 percent of voter intention while Bolsonaro drew 30 percent. Ratinho himself registered just 10 percent. The remaining candidates—Romeu Zema from the Novo party at 3 percent, Aldo Rebelo from the Christian Democracy party at 2 percent, and Renan Santos from the Mission party at 1 percent—barely registered. Seven percent of respondents said they would vote blank or null, and 8 percent declined to answer.
When the pollsters substituted Rio Grande do Sul Governor Eduardo Leite as the PSD option, Lula's support ticked up to 40 percent while Bolsonaro held at 32 percent. Leite's support dropped to 5 percent in this scenario. The pattern held in the third test, which featured Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado. Lula again secured 40 percent, Bolsonaro 32 percent, and Caiado managed 6 percent. Across all three configurations, the president's lead remained stable and substantial.
Beyond raw vote intention, the survey probed how voters assessed the candidates on specific policy domains. On economic management—a central concern for Brazilian voters—29 percent said Lula was best positioned to improve the economy, compared to 20 percent who named Bolsonaro. Ratinho Jr. appeared next at 14 percent, followed by Leite at 7 percent, Zema at 6 percent, and Caiado at 4 percent. Thirteen percent of respondents believed none of the candidates possessed adequate economic credentials, and 4 percent offered no opinion.
The gap widened dramatically when voters were asked who could best improve conditions for the country's poorest citizens. Forty-four percent pointed to Lula, a commanding margin. Bolsonaro finished second with 17 percent, technically tied with Ratinho Jr. at 13 percent. This social policy dimension appears to be where Lula's advantage is most pronounced.
One area showed genuine competition: when asked which candidate could best heal the nation's political divisions and reduce conflict, Lula and Bolsonaro emerged in a dead heat at 24 percent each. This suggests that despite Lula's overall polling strength, the electorate remains deeply fractured on the question of who can bridge the country's ideological and political chasms. The finding hints at the polarization that will likely define the campaign ahead.
The institute surveyed 2,000 voters between February 6 and 7 through in-person interviews. The margin of error stands at two percentage points in either direction, with a 95 percent confidence level. The survey was conducted with the institute's own resources and registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-06428/2026.
Notable Quotes
Lula is seen by 29% as best positioned to improve the economy, compared to 20% who name Bolsonaro— Real Time Big Data poll
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that Lula leads by nine points against Bolsonaro when the PSD hasn't even chosen its candidate yet?
Because the PSD is the kingmaker in Brazilian politics right now. They're the largest centrist party, and whoever they nominate could reshape the race. But this poll shows that no matter which of their three governors they pick, Lula still wins. That's a statement about the stability of his position.
The social policy gap is striking—44 percent for Lula on poverty versus 17 for Bolsonaro. Is that just about who voters like, or does it reflect something real about their records?
It reflects both. Lula's first presidency was defined by poverty reduction programs. Bolsonaro's term was marked by austerity and cuts to social spending. Voters remember that. But it's also about narrative—Lula has spent the last four years positioning himself as the defender of the poor, and that message is landing.
The political reconciliation question troubles me. They're tied at 24 percent each. What does that tell you?
It tells you the country is still broken. Even though Lula is winning on economics and social issues, half the electorate doesn't believe he can heal the divisions. That's a vulnerability. If Bolsonaro can make the election about who can restore stability rather than who can improve the economy, he has an opening.
Do these numbers hold if we get closer to October?
Polls move. But structural advantages—like Lula's edge on economic management and poverty reduction—tend to be sticky. What could shift things is if the economy deteriorates sharply or if a major scandal emerges. Right now, though, Lula's position looks solid.