Moro's support survives every scenario the pollsters tested
Em Paraná, às vésperas de um ciclo eleitoral que ainda não começou oficialmente, uma pesquisa oferece menos uma surpresa do que uma confirmação: o senador Sergio Moro ocupa, por ora, o centro gravitacional da disputa pelo governo estadual, sustentando entre 37 e 42 pontos percentuais enquanto seus adversários permanecem na casa dos vinte. O levantamento, realizado pela Real Time Big Data em novembro de 2025, revela também um eleitorado amplamente satisfeito com a gestão atual — 85% aprovam o governo Ratinho Junior — e inclinado à continuidade, o que molda o terreno sobre o qual todos os candidatos terão de caminhar.
- Moro lidera com folga em todos os cenários testados, mas carrega uma taxa de rejeição de 35% que pode se tornar o principal instrumento de seus adversários à medida que a campanha avança.
- Requião Filho, seu rival mais próximo com 20 a 23%, enfrenta o maior índice de rejeição do campo — 40% dos eleitores descartam seu nome de antemão, limitando severamente seu teto eleitoral.
- Na corrida ao Senado, Ratinho Junior domina com 31% das primeiras preferências, mas um cenário sem ele revelaria uma disputa genuinamente aberta entre Graeml, Dallagnol e Barros.
- O ambiente político favorece a estabilidade: 78% dos eleitores querem continuidade — com ou sem ajustes — e apenas 13% pedem mudanças profundas na condução do estado.
- A percepção de que o Paraná está melhor do que outros estados brasileiros, compartilhada por 63% dos entrevistados, funciona como um escudo para os candidatos ligados à gestão vigente.
Uma pesquisa da Real Time Big Data, divulgada na última quinta-feira, traça o mapa eleitoral do Paraná para 2026 com uma clareza incomum para uma disputa ainda distante. O senador Sergio Moro, pelo União Brasil, lidera todos os cenários governatoriais testados, oscilando entre 37 e 42% de intenções de voto. Seu adversário mais próximo, Requião Filho do PDT, não ultrapassa 23% em nenhuma configuração. O levantamento ouviu 1.200 eleitores ao longo de dois dias, com margem de erro de três pontos percentuais.
Os números, porém, guardam uma ambiguidade relevante. Moro é rejeitado por 35% do eleitorado — o mesmo índice do candidato petista Ênio Verri. Requião Filho, por sua vez, carrega a maior rejeição do campo, com 40%. Isso significa que, embora a liderança de Moro seja sólida no momento, o resultado final dependerá em parte de como os votos de oposição se consolidarão — ou não — em torno de uma alternativa única.
Na disputa pelo Senado, o governador Ratinho Junior parte na frente com 31% das primeiras preferências, bem à frente de Cristina Graeml (14%) e de um trio compacto formado por Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros e Gleisi Hoffmann, cada um entre 10 e 13%. Em um cenário hipotético sem Ratinho, a corrida se tornaria genuinamente disputada, com três candidatos empatados entre 18 e 20%.
O pano de fundo é de satisfação generalizada com a gestão estadual. Oitenta e cinco por cento dos entrevistados aprovam o governo atual, e 63% acreditam que o Paraná está em situação melhor do que os demais estados brasileiros. Esse clima de aprovação se traduz em preferência pela estabilidade: 78% dos eleitores querem continuidade — integral ou com melhorias — e apenas 13% desejam mudanças profundas. Ratinho Junior é apontado por 70% como o melhor governador entre os três mais recentes, o que reforça a vantagem estrutural dos candidatos associados à atual administração.
A poll released Thursday by Real Time Big Data offers a snapshot of Paraná's emerging electoral landscape for next year, and the picture is remarkably stable. Senator Sergio Moro, running under the União banner, maintains a commanding position across every scenario the pollsters tested, holding between 37 and 42 percent of voter support while his nearest competitors languish in the low twenties. The survey, conducted over two days in late November among 1,200 voters with a margin of error of three percentage points, also measured sentiment toward the state's Senate race and the broader approval of the current administration.
In the first gubernatorial scenario, Moro captures 41 percent, with Requião Filho of the PDT trailing at 20 percent, followed by Guto Silva of the PSD at 13 percent. The remaining candidates—Paulo Martins of the Novo party, Ênio Verri of the PT, and undecided voters—account for the rest. When the pollsters adjusted the field in subsequent scenarios, swapping out candidates or removing them entirely, Moro's position barely budged. In a scenario featuring former Curitiba mayor Rafael Greca instead of some competitors, Moro dips slightly to 37 percent, but Greca and Requião Filho still split the opposition, each drawing around 20 to 22 percent. Even in the most crowded field tested, Moro reaches 42 percent.
Yet the numbers contain a warning. Requião Filho carries the highest rejection rate among gubernatorial candidates at 40 percent—voters who say they would not support him under any circumstance. Moro himself faces rejection from 35 percent of the electorate, matching the rejection rate of PT candidate Ênio Verri. This suggests that while Moro's current lead is substantial, the race could shift if voters consolidate around an alternative or if the campaign narrative changes.
The Senate race tells a different story. Governor Ratinho Junior, seeking a seat in the upper house, commands 31 percent of first-preference votes, far ahead of Cristina Graeml of União at 14 percent and a tight cluster of three candidates—Deltan Dallagnol of Novo, Filipe Barros of the PL, and Gleisi Hoffmann of the PT—each hovering around 10 to 13 percent. When pollsters asked about second-preference votes, Ratinho's advantage persists at 20 percent, while the other three candidates remain locked in a competitive struggle. In a hypothetical scenario without Ratinho, Graeml, Dallagnol, and Barros would each command around 18 to 20 percent, suggesting a genuinely open race if the governor steps aside.
The broader political environment appears favorable for those seeking continuity. The current state administration enjoys approval from 85 percent of respondents. When asked to rate the government's performance, 62 percent call it excellent or good, while 28 percent describe it as adequate. When comparing Paraná to other Brazilian states, 63 percent believe their state is in a better position, 20 percent say it is equivalent, and only 13 percent think it is worse off. This perception of relative success translates into voter preference: 38 percent want the current model of governance to continue unchanged, while 40 percent support continuity with improvements. Only 13 percent desire major policy changes, and just 6 percent call for wholesale transformation.
When asked to rank the three most recent governors, Ratinho Junior emerges as the clear favorite, with 70 percent naming him the best. His predecessor, Roberto Requião, receives that designation from 16 percent, while Beto Richa, who served before Requião, is chosen by 8 percent. The data suggests that voters view the current administration as a success and are inclined toward stability rather than disruption—a posture that typically favors the incumbent party and its preferred candidates. Whether that sentiment holds as the campaign intensifies and opposition candidates raise their profiles remains an open question.
Citações Notáveis
70% of voters rank current Governor Ratinho Junior as the best of the three most recent governors— Real Time Big Data poll
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Moro's lead feel so durable across these different scenarios? What's holding it together?
He's not just ahead—he's ahead in a way that survives the pollsters throwing different opponents at him. Whether it's Requião Filho or Greca or a crowded field, he stays in the high thirties or low forties. That suggests his support isn't soft or circumstantial. It's baked in.
But those rejection numbers are striking. Thirty-five percent of voters say they won't support him. That's not nothing.
It's not. And Requião Filho's rejection is even higher at 40 percent. What that tells you is that while Moro has a floor of support, there's also a ceiling—a chunk of the electorate that has already decided against him. The race could tighten if opposition voters consolidate.
The Senate race looks completely different. Why is Ratinho so dominant there but not in the gubernatorial race?
Ratinho is the sitting governor. He's the known quantity with the approval numbers to prove it. When he's in the Senate race, he's the incumbent with a track record. But he's not running for governor—Moro is. They're different races with different dynamics.
What strikes you most about the state approval numbers?
The consistency of it. Eighty-five percent approval is remarkably high. And when you layer in that 63 percent think Paraná is doing better than other states, you're looking at a population that feels things are working. That's the wind at the back of whoever represents continuity.
So this is really a referendum on whether voters want change at all?
Exactly. Seventy-eight percent of voters either want things to stay the same or want improvement within the current framework. Only 19 percent want real change. In that environment, Moro's lead makes sense. He's the continuity candidate.